Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Miami Marlins v Chicago Cubs

Início: 2026-09-04 23:10 UTC

Final: Miami Marlins 1–6 Chicago Cubs

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

66 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Miami Marlins (Local)

Previsão 41.44%2.41odd justa
EV +0.705%
Vantagem +0.290%
Kelly +0.493%
Crescimento +0.003%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.43

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
40.44%41.46%41.41%45.03%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.102.292.292.4347.62%43.69%43.76%41.15%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Chicago Cubs (Visitante)

Previsão 58.56%1.71odd justa
EV +0.719%
Vantagem +0.418%
Kelly +0.998%
Crescimento +0.007%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.72

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
54.97%58.54%58.59%59.56%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.601.641.641.7262.50%60.96%60.98%58.14%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Miami Marlins (Local): 41.44%; Chicago Cubs (Visitante): 58.56%. Para Chicago Cubs (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 1.71. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 1.72, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +0.719%.

Odds das casas de apostas (66 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
Dabble (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -12.97%E -6.18%K -11.79%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV +0.719%E +0.418%K +0.998%G +0.007%5.8%2026-09-04 14:25
1xBet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 42.39%EV -4.27%E -1.85%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.61%EV -0.452%E -0.266%K -0.646%G +0.000%2.1%2026-09-04 14:10
Pinnacle🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 41.34%EV -1.78%E -0.752%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.66%EV -2.21%E -1.32%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.1%2026-09-04 13:55
Everygame🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.54%EV -2.61%E -1.11%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.46%EV -2.21%E -1.32%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.4%2026-09-04 13:35
BetAnything🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.75%EV -3.44%E -1.48%K -2.59%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.25%EV -2.21%E -1.32%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-04 13:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.21%E -1.32%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-04 14:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.21%E -1.32%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 14:25
GTbets🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 40.99%EV -0.952%E -0.398%K -0.685%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.01%EV -2.79%E -1.68%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.1%2026-09-04 14:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 41.09%EV -1.37%E -0.574%K -0.990%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.91%EV -2.79%E -1.68%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-04 14:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 41.09%EV -1.37%E -0.574%K -0.990%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.91%EV -2.79%E -1.68%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-04 14:25
BetUS🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 41.29%EV -2.20%E -0.930%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.71%EV -2.79%E -1.68%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.6%2026-09-04 14:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%EV -5.51%E -2.42%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.87%EV -2.79%E -1.68%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-04 13:24
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%EV -5.51%E -2.42%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.87%EV -2.79%E -1.68%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-04 13:25
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%EV -5.51%E -2.42%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.87%EV -2.79%E -1.68%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-04 13:24
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%EV -5.51%E -2.42%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.87%EV -2.79%E -1.68%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-04 13:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -2.79%E -1.68%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-04 13:25
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -2.79%E -1.68%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-04 13:24
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -2.79%E -1.68%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-04 13:25
Bally Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -2.79%E -1.68%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-04 13:24
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -2.79%E -1.68%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-04 13:24
betPARX🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -2.79%E -1.68%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-04 13:24
Caesars🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 40.44%EV +0.705%E +0.290%K +0.493%G +0.003%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.56%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%1.8%2026-09-04 14:28
theScore Bet🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 41.04%EV -1.78%E -0.752%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.96%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-04 14:30
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-04 13:24
TAB🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-04 14:14
Bet Right🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.20%EV -6.34%E -2.81%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.80%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-04 14:29
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 14:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 14:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 14:10
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 13:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -7.17%E -3.20%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 14:10
MyBookie.ag🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.31%EV -3.44%E -1.48%K -2.59%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.69%EV -3.97%E -2.42%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-04 14:35
FanDuel🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -3.85%E -1.66%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -3.97%E -2.42%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-04 14:25
Bovada🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.52%EV -4.27%E -1.85%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.48%EV -3.97%E -2.42%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 13:49
Coolbet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.94%EV -5.93%E -2.61%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.06%EV -3.97%E -2.42%K -6.20%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 14:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.97%E -2.42%K -6.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 14:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.97%E -2.42%K -6.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 14:10
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.97%E -2.42%K -6.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 14:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -2.61%E -1.11%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -4.55%E -2.79%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-04 13:24
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.55%E -2.79%K -7.22%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-04 14:35
SportsBet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -5.10%E -2.23%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -4.55%E -2.79%K -7.22%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 14:25
Betsson🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -5.93%E -2.61%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -4.55%E -2.79%K -7.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 14:15
NordicBet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -5.93%E -2.61%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -4.55%E -2.79%K -7.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 14:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.23%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.17%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.77%EV -4.55%E -2.79%K -7.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 13:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.23%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.17%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.77%EV -4.55%E -2.79%K -7.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 13:24
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.61%E -1.11%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 14:24
DraftKings🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV -3.02%E -1.29%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-04 14:34
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 14:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 14:35
ReBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 14:34
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 14:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 14:35
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 14:24
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 14:25
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 13:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -1.78%E -0.752%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -5.72%E -3.55%K -9.38%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 14:25
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -1.78%E -0.752%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -5.72%E -3.55%K -9.38%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 14:24
Fliff🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.72%E -3.55%K -9.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 14:25
Betclic (FR)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.49%EV -5.93%E -2.61%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.51%EV -5.72%E -3.55%K -9.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 14:35
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.72%E -3.55%K -9.38%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 13:53
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.72%E -3.55%K -9.38%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 13:48
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.51%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 14:24
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.51%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 13:24
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.51%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 14:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.51%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 14:35
Grosvenor🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.44%EV -10.07%E -4.64%K -8.61%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.56%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.51%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 13:24
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (10)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
ProphetX◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.58%1.68I 59.52%NM 59.42%0.2%2026-09-04 14:35
Novig◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78%1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22%0.5%2026-09-04 14:25
Matchbook◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78%1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22%0.5%2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78%1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22%0.5%2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78%1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22%0.5%2026-09-04 14:35
Polymarket◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-09-04 14:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-09-04 14:25
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%1.2%2026-09-04 14:10
Smarkets◎2.40I 41.67%NM 40.89%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.11%1.9%2026-09-04 14:30
BetOpenly◎2.28I 43.86%NM 42.57%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.43%3.0%2026-09-04 14:35