Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Miami Marlins v Boston Red Sox

2026-08-25 22:40 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

60 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Miami Marlins (Local)

Predicción 40.22%2.49momio equitativo
EV +0.552%
Ventaja +0.221%
Kelly +0.368%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.24%40.30%40.05%42.31%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.182.342.352.5045.87%42.75%42.55%40.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Boston Red Sox (Visitante)

Predicción 59.78%1.67momio equitativo
EV -0.169%
Ventaja -0.101%
Kelly -0.252%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.67

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
57.69%59.70%59.95%60.76%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.541.611.611.6764.94%62.09%62.11%59.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Miami Marlins (Local): 40.22%; Boston Red Sox (Visitante): 59.78%. Para Miami Marlins (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.49. 2 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.50, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +0.552%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (60 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Caesars🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 39.32%EV +0.552%E +0.221%K +0.368%G +0.002%1.62I 61.73%NM 60.68%EV -3.16%E -1.95%K -5.09%G +0.000%1.7%2026-08-25 07:33
GTbets🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 39.27%EV +0.149%E +0.060%K +0.100%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.73%EV -3.76%E -2.33%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-25 05:49
LowVig.ag🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 39.36%EV -0.253%E -0.102%K -0.171%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.64%EV -3.76%E -2.33%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-25 05:49
BetOnline.ag🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 39.36%EV -0.253%E -0.102%K -0.171%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.64%EV -3.76%E -2.33%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-25 05:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 40.24%EV -1.46%E -0.596%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.76%EV -1.36%E -0.827%K -2.10%G +0.000%1.4%2026-08-25 07:34
DraftKings🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 39.60%EV -3.07%E -1.27%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.40%EV -5.55%E -3.51%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-25 07:34
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.47%E -1.45%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.35%E -2.72%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-25 07:34
MyBookie.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.47%E -1.45%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.35%E -2.72%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-25 07:34
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -3.47%E -1.45%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.95%E -3.11%K -8.39%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-25 07:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -3.47%E -1.45%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.95%E -3.11%K -8.39%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-25 07:34
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -3.47%E -1.45%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.95%E -3.11%K -8.39%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-25 07:04
Fliff🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.47%E -1.45%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.15%E -3.91%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-25 07:44
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -3.47%E -1.45%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -7.34%E -4.74%K -13.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-25 06:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -4.27%E -1.80%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -3.16%E -1.95%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-25 04:34
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -4.27%E -1.80%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -5.55%E -3.51%K -9.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-25 07:34
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.27%E -1.80%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.15%E -3.91%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-25 06:39
betano_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.27%E -1.80%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.15%E -3.91%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-25 07:33
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.27%E -1.80%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.15%E -3.91%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-25 07:34
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.27%E -1.80%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.15%E -3.91%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-25 07:34
1xBet🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 41.34%EV -4.68%E -1.97%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.66%EV -0.169%E -0.101%K -0.252%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-25 05:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -4.68%E -1.97%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -3.76%E -2.33%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-25 04:19
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -4.68%E -1.97%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -3.76%E -2.33%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-25 04:19
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -5.48%E -2.33%K -4.06%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -1.36%E -0.827%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-25 03:40
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.48%E -2.33%K -4.06%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.16%E -1.95%K -5.09%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-25 04:19
888sport🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.48%E -2.33%K -4.06%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.35%E -2.72%K -7.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-25 06:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.48%E -2.33%K -4.06%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.35%E -2.72%K -7.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-25 06:39
888sport (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.48%E -2.33%K -4.06%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.35%E -2.72%K -7.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-25 06:39
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -5.48%E -2.33%K -4.06%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -4.95%E -3.11%K -8.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-25 06:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -5.48%E -2.33%K -4.06%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.55%E -3.51%K -9.57%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-25 07:34
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -5.48%E -2.33%K -4.06%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.55%E -3.51%K -9.57%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-25 06:39
ReBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -5.48%E -2.33%K -4.06%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.15%E -3.91%K -10.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-25 07:34
FanDuel🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 41.06%EV -5.88%E -2.51%K -4.39%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.94%EV -2.56%E -1.57%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-25 03:49
Bovada🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV -5.88%E -2.51%K -4.39%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -3.16%E -1.95%K -5.09%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-25 04:29
Bet Right🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -5.88%E -2.51%K -4.39%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -3.76%E -2.33%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-25 06:39
Coolbet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -6.29%E -2.70%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -3.76%E -2.33%K -6.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-25 06:39
Betsson🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -6.29%E -2.70%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -3.76%E -2.33%K -6.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-25 06:39
NordicBet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -6.29%E -2.70%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -3.76%E -2.33%K -6.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-25 06:39
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -7.49%E -3.26%K -5.76%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -2.56%E -1.57%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-25 07:34
Marathon Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.49%E -3.26%K -5.76%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.16%E -1.95%K -5.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-25 05:43
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.49%E -3.26%K -5.76%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.35%E -2.72%K -7.26%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-25 03:49
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.49%E -3.26%K -5.76%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.35%E -2.72%K -7.26%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-25 03:57
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.49%E -3.26%K -5.76%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.34%E -4.74%K -13.35%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-25 07:34
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -8.30%E -3.64%K -6.48%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -1.36%E -0.827%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-25 04:09
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -8.30%E -3.64%K -6.48%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -1.36%E -0.827%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-25 04:09
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -8.30%E -3.64%K -6.48%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -1.36%E -0.827%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-25 04:09
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -8.30%E -3.64%K -6.48%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -1.36%E -0.827%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-25 04:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -8.30%E -3.64%K -6.48%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -1.36%E -0.827%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-25 04:09
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -8.30%E -3.64%K -6.48%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -1.36%E -0.827%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-25 04:09
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -8.30%E -3.64%K -6.48%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -1.36%E -0.827%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-25 04:09
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -8.30%E -3.64%K -6.48%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -1.36%E -0.827%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-25 04:09
Bally Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -8.30%E -3.64%K -6.48%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -1.36%E -0.827%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-25 04:09
betPARX🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -8.30%E -3.64%K -6.48%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -1.36%E -0.827%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-25 04:14
Dabble (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -9.50%E -4.22%K -7.60%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -1.36%E -0.827%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-25 07:28
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -9.50%E -4.22%K -7.60%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -1.96%E -1.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-25 04:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -9.50%E -4.22%K -7.60%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -1.96%E -1.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-25 04:19
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -9.50%E -4.22%K -7.60%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -1.96%E -1.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-25 04:19
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -9.50%E -4.22%K -7.60%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.37%EV -7.94%E -5.16%K -14.70%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-25 07:34
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -10.31%E -4.62%K -8.38%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -3.16%E -1.95%K -5.09%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-25 04:09
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -10.31%E -4.62%K -8.38%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -3.16%E -1.95%K -5.09%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-25 04:09
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.87%EV -12.32%E -5.65%K -10.44%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.13%EV -6.15%E -3.91%K -10.78%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-25 04:09
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (8)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%1.0%2026-08-25 06:44
Polymarket2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%1.0%2026-08-25 06:29
ProphetX2.48I 40.32%NM 39.81%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.19%1.3%2026-08-25 07:14
Novig2.47I 40.49%NM 39.90%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.10%1.5%2026-08-25 06:44
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.42I 41.32%NM 40.54%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.46%1.9%2026-08-25 07:39
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.42I 41.32%NM 40.54%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.46%1.9%2026-08-25 07:34
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.42I 41.32%NM 40.54%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.46%1.9%2026-08-25 07:34
Smarkets2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%3.0%2026-08-25 07:34
Arbitraje (1 combinación) +0.12%Caesars 2.50 (40.0%) / 1xBet 1.67 (60.0%)Ver detalles
Miami Marlins (Local)Boston Red Sox (Visitante)Margen
Caesars🎯 2.50 (40.0%)1xBet🎯 1.67 (60.0%)+0.120%