Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Los Angeles Dodgers v Pittsburgh Pirates

2026-08-22 23:16 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

46 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Los Angeles Dodgers (Local)

Predicción 68.93%1.45momio equitativo
EV -1.42%
Ventaja -0.995%
Kelly -3.31%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.43

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
67.15%68.90%69.04%70.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.331.381.381.4375.19%72.41%72.46%69.93%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Pittsburgh Pirates (Visitante)

Predicción 31.07%3.22momio equitativo
EV +2.52%
Ventaja +0.762%
Kelly +1.09%
Crecimiento +0.028%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.96%31.10%30.96%32.85%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.803.073.103.3035.71%32.52%32.26%30.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Los Angeles Dodgers (Local): 68.93%; Pittsburgh Pirates (Visitante): 31.07%. Para Pittsburgh Pirates (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.22. 4 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 3.30, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +2.52%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (46 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92%EV -2.11%E -1.49%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%EV +2.52%E +0.762%K +1.09%G +0.028%0.7%2026-08-21 22:34
Caesars🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 70.04%EV -4.18%E -3.01%K -10.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.96%EV +0.962%E +0.296%K +0.428%G +0.004%2.7%2026-08-21 21:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 69.76%EV -3.49%E -2.49%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.24%EV +0.341%E +0.106%K +0.153%G +0.001%2.4%2026-08-21 19:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 69.76%EV -3.49%E -2.49%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.24%EV +0.341%E +0.106%K +0.153%G +0.001%2.4%2026-08-21 19:19
theScore Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -5.56%E -4.06%K -15.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -0.591%E -0.185%K -0.269%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-21 23:54
Pinnacle🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 69.08%EV -2.80%E -1.99%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.92%EV -2.14%E -0.681%K -0.997%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-21 21:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.87%E -3.53%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -2.14%E -0.681%K -0.997%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-22 00:15
BetRivers🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.87%E -3.53%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -2.14%E -0.681%K -0.997%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-22 00:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.87%E -3.53%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -2.14%E -0.681%K -0.997%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-22 00:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.87%E -3.53%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -2.14%E -0.681%K -0.997%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-22 00:15
Bet Right🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -5.56%E -4.06%K -15.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -2.14%E -0.681%K -0.997%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-21 22:14
DraftKings🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.62%EV -5.56%E -4.06%K -15.03%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.38%EV -2.45%E -0.782%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-21 22:14
1xBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 68.43%EV -1.42%E -0.995%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.57%EV -3.70%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-21 19:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -3.49%E -2.49%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -3.70%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-22 00:10
GTbets🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -3.49%E -2.49%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -3.70%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-21 21:00
FanDuel🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -4.18%E -3.01%K -10.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -3.70%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-21 19:20
Fanatics🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.87%E -3.53%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.70%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-21 19:19
Fliff🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.87%E -3.53%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.70%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-22 00:15
Casumo🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.87%E -3.53%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.70%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-22 00:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.87%E -3.53%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.70%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-22 00:15
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.87%E -3.53%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.70%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-22 00:15
Bally Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.87%E -3.53%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.70%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-22 00:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.87%E -3.53%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.70%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-22 00:15
betPARX🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.87%E -3.53%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.70%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-22 00:15
Bovada🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.87%E -3.53%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.70%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-22 00:24
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.25%E -4.59%K -17.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.70%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-21 19:20
SportsBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.37%EV -6.25%E -4.59%K -17.36%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.63%EV -4.32%E -1.40%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-21 19:19
Coolbet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.99%EV -4.87%E -3.53%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.01%EV -4.63%E -1.51%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-21 22:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.87%E -3.53%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.25%E -1.72%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-21 22:14
TABtouch🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.87%E -3.53%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.25%E -1.72%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-22 00:15
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -6.25%E -4.59%K -17.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -5.25%E -1.72%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-21 19:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -6.25%E -4.59%K -17.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -5.25%E -1.72%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-21 19:29
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -6.25%E -4.59%K -17.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -5.25%E -1.72%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-21 19:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -6.25%E -4.59%K -17.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -5.25%E -1.72%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-22 00:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -6.25%E -4.59%K -17.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -5.25%E -1.72%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-22 00:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.49%E -2.49%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.80%E -2.27%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-21 21:54
PlayUp🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.49%E -2.49%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.80%E -2.27%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-21 19:30
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.49%E -2.49%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.80%E -2.27%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-21 23:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -4.18%E -3.01%K -10.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -6.80%E -2.27%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-21 19:45
ReBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -4.18%E -3.01%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -8.36%E -2.83%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-21 23:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -4.18%E -3.01%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -8.36%E -2.83%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-21 21:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -4.18%E -3.01%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -8.36%E -2.83%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-21 21:55
Grosvenor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.93%EV -8.32%E -6.25%K -25.20%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -8.36%E -2.83%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-22 00:15
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -6.25%E -4.59%K -17.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -9.91%E -3.42%K -5.22%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-21 21:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.15%EV -5.56%E -4.06%K -15.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -13.02%E -4.65%K -7.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-22 00:04
Unibet (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -6.25%E -4.59%K -17.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -13.02%E -4.65%K -7.23%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-21 23:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Polymarket1.43I 69.93%NM 69.31%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.69%0.9%2026-08-21 22:30
Novig1.42I 70.42%NM 69.46%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.54%1.4%2026-08-22 01:00
Kalshi1.41I 70.92%NM 69.61%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.39%1.9%2026-08-22 00:04
Matchbook1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%3.7%2026-08-21 23:50
Smarkets1.36I 73.53%NM 67.15%2.78I 35.97%NM 32.85%9.5%2026-08-22 01:05

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