Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Houston Astros v Toronto Blue Jays

2026-08-05 00:15 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

61 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Houston Astros (Local)

Predicción 56.56%1.77momio equitativo
EV -1.02%
Ventaja -0.584%
Kelly -1.36%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.09%56.45%56.53%59.21%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.551.691.701.7564.52%59.06%58.82%57.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Toronto Blue Jays (Visitante)

Predicción 43.44%2.30momio equitativo
EV +0.348%
Ventaja +0.151%
Kelly +0.266%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.31

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.79%43.55%43.47%45.91%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.052.192.202.3148.78%45.64%45.45%43.29%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Houston Astros (Local): 56.56%; Toronto Blue Jays (Visitante): 43.44%. Para Toronto Blue Jays (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.30. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.31, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +0.348%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (61 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
DraftKings1.71I 58.48%NM 57.46%EV -3.28%E -1.92%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 42.54%EV +0.348%E +0.151%K +0.266%G +0.001%1.8%2026-08-04 23:55
Hard Rock Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 57.36%EV -3.28%E -1.92%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.64%EV -0.086%E -0.037%K -0.066%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-04 23:44
GTbets1.71I 58.48%NM 57.25%EV -3.28%E -1.92%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.75%EV -0.520%E -0.227%K -0.403%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-04 22:00
BetUS1.70I 58.82%NM 57.39%EV -3.85%E -2.26%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.61%EV -0.520%E -0.227%K -0.403%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-04 23:59
Caesars1.72I 58.14%NM 57.00%EV -2.72%E -1.58%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.00%EV -0.955%E -0.419%K -0.746%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-04 23:15
LowVig.ag1.71I 58.48%NM 57.14%EV -3.28%E -1.92%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.86%EV -0.955%E -0.419%K -0.746%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-04 22:00
BetOnline.ag1.71I 58.48%NM 57.14%EV -3.28%E -1.92%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.86%EV -0.955%E -0.419%K -0.746%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-04 22:00
BetAnything1.69I 59.17%NM 57.43%EV -4.42%E -2.61%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.57%EV -0.955%E -0.419%K -0.746%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-04 23:59
FanDuel1.74I 57.47%NM 56.50%EV -1.59%E -0.912%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.50%EV -1.82%E -0.807%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.7%2026-08-04 21:55
1xBet1.73I 57.80%NM 56.64%EV -2.15%E -1.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.36%EV -1.82%E -0.807%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-04 22:54
Pinnacle1.73I 57.80%NM 56.64%EV -2.15%E -1.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.36%EV -1.82%E -0.807%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-04 23:40
ReBet1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.42%E -2.61%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.26%E -1.00%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-05 00:00
Ladbrokes (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.55%E -3.32%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.26%E -1.00%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-04 23:59
BetMGM1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.55%E -3.32%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.26%E -1.00%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-05 00:00
Coral1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.55%E -3.32%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.26%E -1.00%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-05 00:00
MyBookie.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 56.89%EV -4.42%E -2.61%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.11%EV -3.13%E -1.40%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-04 23:59
SportsBet1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -6.11%E -3.68%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -3.13%E -1.40%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 00:09
BetRivers1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%EV -1.59%E -0.912%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%EV -4.43%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-04 23:59
Svenska Spel1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%EV -1.59%E -0.912%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%EV -4.43%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-04 23:59
PointsBet (AU)1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.28%E -1.92%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.43%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-04 21:54
theScore Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.28%E -1.92%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.43%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-04 21:55
Bovada1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.85%E -2.26%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.43%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-05 00:09
TAB1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.85%E -2.26%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.43%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-04 22:05
Fanatics1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.42%E -2.61%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.43%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 22:05
Bet Right1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.98%E -2.96%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.43%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-04 23:59
Ladbrokes (AU)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.98%E -2.96%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.43%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-04 23:59
PlayUp1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.98%E -2.96%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.43%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-04 23:59
Neds1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.98%E -2.96%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.43%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 00:00
Coolbet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.98%E -2.96%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.43%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-04 23:59
Betr (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.55%E -3.32%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.43%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 00:00
888sport1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.55%E -3.32%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.43%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 00:00
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.55%E -3.32%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.43%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 22:24
888sport (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.55%E -3.32%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.43%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 00:00
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.55%E -3.32%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.43%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 00:00
Unibet (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -6.11%E -3.68%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -4.43%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-05 00:00
Winamax (DE)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -6.11%E -3.68%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -4.43%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-05 00:00
Tipico (DE)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.68%E -4.05%K -10.27%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.43%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-04 22:05
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.37%E -5.17%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.43%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-05 00:04
Marathon Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%EV -4.98%E -2.96%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.41%EV -4.86%E -2.22%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 22:49
NordicBet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.98%E -2.96%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.30%E -2.43%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 23:59
Betsson1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.98%E -2.96%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.30%E -2.43%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 23:59
Unibet (NL)1.72I 58.14%NM 55.67%EV -2.72%E -1.58%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.33%EV -6.17%E -2.86%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-05 00:00
Unibet (SE)1.72I 58.14%NM 55.67%EV -2.72%E -1.58%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.33%EV -6.17%E -2.86%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-05 00:00
Unibet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.28%E -1.92%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.60%E -3.07%K -5.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 00:00
LeoVegas (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.28%E -1.92%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.60%E -3.07%K -5.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 00:00
betPARX1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.28%E -1.92%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.60%E -3.07%K -5.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 00:00
ATG (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.28%E -1.92%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.60%E -3.07%K -5.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-04 23:59
Bally Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.28%E -1.92%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.60%E -3.07%K -5.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 00:00
Fliff1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.42%E -2.61%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.60%E -3.07%K -5.74%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-05 00:09
TABtouch1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -3.28%E -1.92%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -7.04%E -3.29%K -6.17%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 00:00
Casumo1.70I 58.82%NM 55.73%EV -3.85%E -2.26%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.27%EV -7.04%E -3.29%K -6.17%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-05 00:10
Betclic (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 56.50%EV -7.24%E -4.42%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 43.50%EV -7.47%E -3.51%K -6.61%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-04 23:59
Unibet (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -1.02%E -0.584%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -7.91%E -3.73%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-05 00:10
Virgin Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -4.98%E -2.96%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -7.91%E -3.73%K -7.06%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-05 00:00
LiveScore Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -4.98%E -2.96%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -7.91%E -3.73%K -7.06%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-04 23:59
Dabble (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -2.72%E -1.58%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -8.77%E -4.18%K -7.98%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-04 22:04
Betway1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.28%E -1.92%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.77%E -4.18%K -7.98%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-05 00:10
Grosvenor1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -6.68%E -4.05%K -10.27%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.24%EV -9.64%E -4.64%K -8.93%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-04 23:59
Winamax (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -2.72%E -1.58%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -10.95%E -5.34%K -10.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-05 00:10
Bet Victor1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -3.85%E -2.26%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -10.95%E -5.34%K -10.42%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-04 23:59
betano_uk1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -3.85%E -2.26%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -10.95%E -5.34%K -10.42%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-04 23:58
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86%0.6%2026-08-05 00:05
Novig1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%0.6%2026-08-04 23:45
Matchbook1.75I 57.14%NM 56.58%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.42%1.0%2026-08-05 00:05
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-08-05 00:10
Polymarket1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-08-05 00:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.74I 57.47%NM 56.72%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.28%1.3%2026-08-05 00:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.74I 57.47%NM 56.72%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.28%1.3%2026-08-05 00:10
Smarkets1.72I 58.14%NM 57.21%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.79%1.6%2026-08-05 00:05
BetOpenly1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%2.0%2026-08-05 00:09
ProphetX1.70I 58.82%NM 57.39%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.61%2.5%2026-08-05 00:10