La escuela de los momios

Houston Astros v Seattle Mariners

Inicio: 2026-05-14 18:11 UTC

Final: Houston Astros 3–8 Seattle Mariners

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

61 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Houston Astros (Local)

Predicción 48.77%2.05momio equitativo
EV -1.49%
Ventaja -0.739%
Kelly -1.46%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.02

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.95%48.74%48.68%50.80%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.851.951.952.0254.05%51.27%51.28%49.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Seattle Mariners (Visitante)

Predicción 51.23%1.95momio equitativo
EV -0.606%
Ventaja -0.312%
Kelly -0.645%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.94

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
49.20%51.26%51.32%53.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.761.861.861.9456.82%53.68%53.76%51.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (61 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Pinnacle2.02I 49.50%NM 48.60%EV -1.49%E -0.739%K -1.46%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.40%EV -2.14%E -1.12%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.9%2026-05-14 17:45
1xBet2.01I 49.75%NM 48.72%EV -1.98%E -0.985%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.28%EV -2.14%E -1.12%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.1%2026-05-14 16:55
theScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV -2.47%E -1.23%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -2.14%E -1.12%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-14 16:55
ReBet2.00I 50.00%NM 48.32%EV -2.47%E -1.23%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.68%EV -4.19%E -2.24%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-14 16:45
Unibet (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -2.47%E -1.23%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.14%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-14 16:45
Fliff2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.47%E -1.23%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.24%E -3.41%K -7.52%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-14 18:10
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.47%E -1.23%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.78%E -4.32%K -9.72%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-14 18:10
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.47%E -1.23%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.78%E -4.32%K -9.72%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-14 14:00
Tipico (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -2.47%E -1.23%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -9.32%E -5.26%K -12.10%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-14 14:50
MyBookie.ag1.99I 50.25%NM 48.31%EV -2.96%E -1.49%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.69%EV -4.70%E -2.53%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-14 16:45
Everygame1.97I 50.76%NM 49.49%EV -3.93%E -2.00%K -4.05%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.51%EV -1.12%E -0.579%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-14 18:06
LowVig.ag1.96I 51.02%NM 49.74%EV -4.42%E -2.25%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.26%EV -0.606%E -0.312%K -0.645%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-14 18:10
BetOnline.ag1.96I 51.02%NM 49.74%EV -4.42%E -2.25%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.26%EV -0.606%E -0.312%K -0.645%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-14 18:10
GTbets1.96I 51.02%NM 49.74%EV -4.42%E -2.25%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.26%EV -0.606%E -0.312%K -0.645%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-14 18:06
BetUS1.96I 51.02%NM 49.74%EV -4.42%E -2.25%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.26%EV -0.606%E -0.312%K -0.645%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-14 18:05
BetAnything1.96I 51.02%NM 49.74%EV -4.42%E -2.25%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.26%EV -0.606%E -0.312%K -0.645%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-14 18:05
Svenska Spel1.96I 51.02%NM 49.48%EV -4.42%E -2.25%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.52%EV -1.63%E -0.849%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-14 17:55
FanDuel1.96I 51.02%NM 49.09%EV -4.42%E -2.25%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.91%EV -3.17%E -1.68%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-14 16:45
Unibet (SE)1.96I 51.02%NM 48.83%EV -4.42%E -2.25%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.17%EV -4.19%E -2.24%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-14 17:55
Unibet (NL)1.96I 51.02%NM 48.83%EV -4.42%E -2.25%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.17%EV -4.19%E -2.24%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-14 17:55
Bet Right1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -4.42%E -2.25%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -4.70%E -2.53%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-14 17:20
Betr (AU)1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -4.42%E -2.25%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-14 17:21
Winamax (DE)1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%EV -4.42%E -2.25%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%EV -5.73%E -3.11%K -6.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-14 16:45
TAB1.95I 51.28%NM 49.35%EV -4.91%E -2.52%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.65%EV -2.66%E -1.40%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-14 17:05
Fanatics1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.91%E -2.52%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.19%E -2.24%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-14 16:46
PlayUp1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.91%E -2.52%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.19%E -2.24%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-14 17:00
Caesars1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.91%E -2.52%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.19%E -2.24%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-14 16:14
Hard Rock Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.91%E -2.52%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.19%E -2.24%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-14 16:45
Ladbrokes (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.91%E -2.52%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-14 16:05
Coral1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.91%E -2.52%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-14 16:05
Grosvenor1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.91%E -2.52%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-14 17:55
LiveScore Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.91%E -2.52%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-14 17:55
Casumo1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.91%E -2.52%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-14 17:55
LeoVegas1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.91%E -2.52%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-14 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.91%E -2.52%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-14 17:55
Bally Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.91%E -2.52%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-14 17:55
ATG (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.91%E -2.52%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-14 17:55
Coolbet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.91%E -2.52%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-14 18:10
Betsson1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.91%E -2.52%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-14 17:00
NordicBet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.91%E -2.52%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-14 17:05
Dabble (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.91%E -2.52%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-14 18:05
Bet Victor1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -4.91%E -2.52%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.78%E -4.32%K -9.72%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-14 17:57
Ladbrokes (AU)1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.39%E -2.78%K -5.74%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.19%E -2.24%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-14 16:05
Neds1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.39%E -2.78%K -5.74%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.19%E -2.24%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-14 16:05
SportsBet1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -5.39%E -2.78%K -5.74%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -4.70%E -2.53%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-14 16:45
Marathon Bet1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -5.39%E -2.78%K -5.74%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -4.70%E -2.53%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-14 18:09
TABtouch1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -5.39%E -2.78%K -5.74%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-14 17:55
betPARX1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -5.88%E -3.05%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -3.68%E -1.96%K -4.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-14 18:10
Unibet1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -5.88%E -3.05%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -3.68%E -1.96%K -4.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-14 18:10
Bovada1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -5.88%E -3.05%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -3.68%E -1.96%K -4.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-14 18:05
Virgin Bet1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -5.88%E -3.05%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -6.24%E -3.41%K -7.52%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-14 18:10
Unibet (FR)1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -5.88%E -3.05%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.60%EV -7.27%E -4.01%K -8.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-14 18:00
BetRivers1.92I 52.08%NM 48.66%EV -6.37%E -3.32%K -6.92%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.34%EV -6.75%E -3.71%K -8.24%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-14 18:10
BetMGM1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -6.86%E -3.59%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -4.19%E -2.24%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 18:10
888sport1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.86%E -3.59%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-14 17:20
888sport (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.86%E -3.59%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-14 17:21
Mr Green (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.86%E -3.59%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-14 17:20
PointsBet (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -7.34%E -3.87%K -8.16%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -7.78%E -4.32%K -9.72%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-14 18:10
Winamax (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 48.35%EV -8.32%E -4.43%K -9.45%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.65%EV -9.83%E -5.58%K -12.93%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-14 18:10
Paddy Power1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -8.81%E -4.71%K -10.12%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -4.19%E -2.24%K -4.82%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-14 18:10
DraftKings1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -9.78%E -5.29%K -11.51%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -2.14%E -1.12%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-14 18:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
BetOpenly2.01I 49.75%NM 50.37%2.04I 49.02%NM 49.63%-1.2%2026-05-14 18:09
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 49.12%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88%0.8%2026-05-14 18:06
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.02I 49.50%NM 49.12%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88%0.8%2026-05-14 18:10
Polymarket2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-05-14 17:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.24%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.76%1.5%2026-05-14 18:10
Kalshi2.00I 50.00%NM 48.98%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%2.1%2026-05-14 17:30
Smarkets1.99I 50.25%NM 48.97%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.03%2.6%2026-05-14 18:10
ProphetX1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%4.7%2026-05-14 18:10
Novig1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%5.3%2026-05-14 18:10
Matchbook1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%7.0%2026-05-14 18:10