L’École des cotes

Houston Astros v Miami Marlins

Coup d’envoi : 2026-07-22 00:11 UTC

Score final : Houston Astros 5–3 Miami Marlins

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

63 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Houston Astros (Local)

Prévision 53.43%1.87cote équitable
EV -0.620%
Avantage -0.333%
Kelly -0.721%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.86

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
51.44%53.51%53.25%54.92%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.661.781.771.8660.24%56.24%56.50%53.76%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Miami Marlins (Visiteur)

Prévision 46.57%2.15cote équitable
EV -1.27%
Avantage -0.600%
Kelly -1.14%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.12

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
45.08%46.49%46.75%48.56%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.952.042.052.1251.28%49.10%48.78%47.17%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (63 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle1.86I 53.76%NM 52.79%EV -0.620%E -0.333%K -0.721%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.21%EV -3.13%E -1.51%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.8%2026-07-22 00:05
GTbets1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%EV -1.15%E -0.624%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%EV -3.13%E -1.51%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-22 00:00
Everygame1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%EV -1.15%E -0.624%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%EV -3.13%E -1.51%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-22 00:00
BetOnline.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 52.81%EV -1.15%E -0.624%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 47.19%EV -3.60%E -1.74%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-22 00:00
LowVig.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 52.81%EV -1.15%E -0.624%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 47.19%EV -3.60%E -1.74%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-22 00:05
BetUS1.85I 54.05%NM 52.81%EV -1.15%E -0.624%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 47.19%EV -3.60%E -1.74%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-21 23:25
Ladbrokes (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -1.15%E -0.624%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -6.86%E -3.43%K -6.86%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-22 00:10
Neds1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -1.15%E -0.624%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -8.72%E -4.45%K -9.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-22 00:09
Ladbrokes (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -1.15%E -0.624%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -8.72%E -4.45%K -9.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-22 00:09
1xBet1.83I 54.64%NM 53.67%EV -2.22%E -1.21%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.33%EV -1.27%E -0.600%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.8%2026-07-21 19:04
BetAnything1.83I 54.64%NM 52.96%EV -2.22%E -1.21%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.04%EV -4.07%E -1.97%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-21 23:15
ReBet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.84%EV -2.22%E -1.21%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.16%EV -4.53%E -2.21%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-22 00:05
Coral1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.22%E -1.21%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.86%E -3.43%K -6.86%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-22 00:00
Fliff1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -2.22%E -1.21%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -9.19%E -4.71%K -9.67%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-21 23:20
MyBookie.ag1.82I 54.95%NM 52.85%EV -2.76%E -1.51%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.15%EV -5.00%E -2.45%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-21 14:04
Bovada1.81I 55.25%NM 52.86%EV -3.29%E -1.82%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.14%EV -5.46%E -2.69%K -5.30%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-21 21:15
Caesars1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.83%E -2.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.53%E -2.21%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-21 08:14
theScore Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.83%E -2.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.53%E -2.21%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-21 09:20
TAB1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.83%E -2.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.53%E -2.21%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-21 05:29
Bet Right1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%EV -3.83%E -2.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87%EV -5.00%E -2.45%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-22 00:09
PlayUp1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.83%E -2.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.93%E -2.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-22 00:09
Dabble (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.83%E -2.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.93%E -2.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-21 21:15
Marathon Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.76%EV -3.83%E -2.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.24%EV -6.39%E -3.18%K -6.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-22 00:09
Betr (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.83%E -2.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.86%E -3.43%K -6.86%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-22 00:05
BoyleSports1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.83%E -2.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.86%E -3.43%K -6.86%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-21 14:05
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.83%E -2.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.86%E -3.43%K -6.86%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-21 03:50
PointsBet (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.83%E -2.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.19%E -4.71%K -9.67%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-22 00:10
FanDuel1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -4.36%E -2.44%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -3.13%E -1.51%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-21 14:05
Betsson1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.36%E -2.44%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.93%E -2.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-22 00:09
Unibet (FR)1.79I 55.87%NM 52.77%EV -4.36%E -2.44%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.23%EV -6.86%E -3.43%K -6.86%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-22 00:05
Bally Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%EV -5.43%E -3.07%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%EV -3.60%E -1.74%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-21 23:20
betPARX1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%EV -5.43%E -3.07%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%EV -3.60%E -1.74%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-21 23:20
SportsBet1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -5.43%E -3.07%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -4.07%E -1.97%K -3.84%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-21 14:05
Fanatics1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.43%E -3.07%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.86%E -3.43%K -6.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-22 00:10
Hard Rock Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.43%E -3.07%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.86%E -3.43%K -6.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-22 00:10
Tipico (DE)1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.43%E -3.07%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.86%E -3.43%K -6.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-21 19:10
NordicBet1.77I 56.50%NM 52.55%EV -5.43%E -3.07%K -7.05%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.45%EV -8.72%E -4.45%K -9.09%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-22 00:10
TABtouch1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.96%E -3.39%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -4.53%E -2.21%K -4.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-22 00:10
Casumo1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.96%E -3.39%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -4.53%E -2.21%K -4.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-22 00:10
Svenska Spel1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.96%E -3.39%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -4.53%E -2.21%K -4.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-22 00:10
DraftKings1.76I 56.82%NM 53.44%EV -5.96%E -3.39%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.56%EV -5.93%E -2.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-22 00:10
Betclic (FR)1.76I 56.82%NM 52.69%EV -5.96%E -3.39%K -7.85%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.31%EV -8.72%E -4.45%K -9.09%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-22 00:05
Coolbet1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -6.50%E -3.71%K -8.66%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.20%E -1.05%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-22 00:10
888sport1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.50%E -3.71%K -8.66%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.53%E -2.21%K -4.32%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-21 06:05
888sport (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.50%E -3.71%K -8.66%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.53%E -2.21%K -4.32%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-21 06:05
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.50%E -3.71%K -8.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.86%E -3.43%K -6.86%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-21 21:45
Unibet (UK)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -7.03%E -4.04%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -1.27%E -0.600%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-22 00:10
Winamax (DE)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.03%E -4.04%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.53%E -2.21%K -4.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-22 00:10
BetMGM1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.03%E -4.04%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.53%E -2.21%K -4.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-22 00:10
Betway1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.03%E -4.04%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.53%E -2.21%K -4.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-22 00:10
LiveScore Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 53.72%EV -7.03%E -4.04%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.28%EV -5.93%E -2.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-22 00:10
Unibet1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.57%E -4.37%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.20%E -1.05%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-22 00:10
Unibet (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.57%E -4.37%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.20%E -1.05%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-22 00:10
Unibet (NL)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.57%E -4.37%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.20%E -1.05%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-22 00:10
ATG (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.57%E -4.37%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.20%E -1.05%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-22 00:10
Mr Green (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -7.57%E -4.37%K -10.36%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -9.19%E -4.71%K -9.67%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-22 00:10
Grosvenor1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%EV -8.10%E -4.71%K -11.25%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.38%EV -3.60%E -1.74%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-22 00:10
Virgin Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 54.64%EV -8.63%E -5.05%K -12.16%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.36%EV -4.07%E -1.97%K -3.84%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-22 00:10
Bet Victor1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -9.17%E -5.39%K -13.10%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -4.53%E -2.21%K -4.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-22 00:05
betano_uk1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -9.17%E -5.39%K -13.10%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -4.53%E -2.21%K -4.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-22 00:08
BetRivers1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -9.17%E -5.39%K -13.10%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -4.53%E -2.21%K -4.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-22 00:10
LeoVegas (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 54.59%EV -10.24%E -6.09%K -15.05%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.41%EV -5.93%E -2.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-22 00:10
Winamax (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 54.40%EV -11.31%E -6.81%K -17.13%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.60%EV -7.79%E -3.94%K -7.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-22 00:10
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (10)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
ProphetX1.88I 53.19%NM 53.00%2.12I 47.17%NM 47.00%0.4%2026-07-22 00:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.88I 53.19%NM 53.00%2.12I 47.17%NM 47.00%0.4%2026-07-22 00:10
Smarkets1.88I 53.19%NM 52.76%2.10I 47.62%NM 47.24%0.8%2026-07-22 00:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.86I 53.76%NM 53.27%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.73%0.9%2026-07-22 00:10
Kalshi1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-07-21 23:50
Polymarket1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-07-21 00:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.87I 53.48%NM 52.66%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.34%1.6%2026-07-22 00:10
BetOpenly1.85I 54.05%NM 52.81%2.07I 48.31%NM 47.19%2.4%2026-07-22 00:09
Novig1.85I 54.05%NM 52.69%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.31%2.6%2026-07-22 00:10
Matchbook1.87I 53.48%NM 51.93%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.07%3.0%2026-07-22 00:10