The School of Odds

Detroit Tigers v Philadelphia Phillies

2026-07-11 22:11 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Detroit Tigers (Local)

Prediction 43.28%2.31fair odd
EV -2.61%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -2.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.86%43.49%43.23%45.18%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.052.182.202.2549%46%45%44%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Philadelphia Phillies (Visit)

Prediction 56.72%1.76fair odd
EV +0.953%
Edge +0.535%
Kelly +1.22%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.82%56.51%56.77%57.14%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.601.681.671.7863%59%60%56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag2.16I 46.30%NM 45.18%EV -6.50%E -3.01%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.82%EV +0.953%E +0.535%K +1.22%G +0.012%2.5%2026-07-10 18:59
LowVig.ag2.16I 46.30%NM 45.18%EV -6.50%E -3.01%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.82%EV +0.953%E +0.535%K +1.22%G +0.012%2.5%2026-07-10 18:59
1xBet2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%EV -3.91%E -1.76%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%EV -0.749%E -0.428%K -0.998%G +0.000%2.2%2026-07-10 17:50
Fanatics2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.94%E -3.23%K -6.03%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.02%E -1.76%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-10 18:54
Fliff2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.94%E -3.23%K -6.03%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.02%E -1.76%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-10 17:45
PointsBet (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.61%E -1.16%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.15%E -2.46%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-10 17:39
theScore Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.61%E -1.16%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.15%E -2.46%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-10 18:19
FanDuel2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -3.04%E -1.36%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.72%E -2.81%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-10 17:35
Unibet (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.77%E -2.17%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.72%E -2.81%K -6.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-10 17:40
PlayUp2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.77%E -2.17%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.72%E -2.81%K -6.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-10 18:00
Bet Right2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -3.91%E -1.76%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -5.29%E -3.17%K -7.89%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-10 17:45
888sport2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.77%E -2.17%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.29%E -3.17%K -7.89%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-10 17:44
Bet Victor2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.77%E -2.17%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.29%E -3.17%K -7.89%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-10 17:43
Betr (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.77%E -2.17%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.29%E -3.17%K -7.89%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-10 17:45
888sport (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.77%E -2.17%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.29%E -3.17%K -7.89%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-10 17:45
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.77%E -2.17%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.29%E -3.17%K -7.89%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-10 17:44
Betclic (FR)2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%EV -5.64%E -2.59%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%EV -5.29%E -3.17%K -7.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-10 17:38
Winamax (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -6.94%E -3.23%K -6.03%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.43%EV -5.85%E -3.53%K -8.87%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-10 17:54
SportsBet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.77%E -2.17%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.42%E -3.89%K -9.88%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-10 17:40
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.77%E -2.17%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.42%E -3.89%K -9.88%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-10 17:40
ReBet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.94%E -3.23%K -6.03%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.42%E -3.89%K -9.88%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-10 17:39
Unibet (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%EV -9.10%E -4.33%K -8.27%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.60%EV -8.69%E -5.40%K -14.24%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-10 17:39
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -11.27%E -5.50%K -10.73%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.16%EV -9.26%E -5.78%K -15.43%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-10 17:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is the most recent time we recorded each book's price — on the default model, when it last changed, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.22I 45.05%NM 45.05%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.95%-0.0%2026-07-10 17:40
Polymarket2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%0.9%2026-07-10 17:55
Smarkets2.08I 48.08%NM 43.63%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.37%10.2%2026-07-10 17:40