Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cleveland Guardians v San Francisco Giants

Inicio: 2026-08-18 22:41 UTC

Final: Cleveland Guardians 8–1 San Francisco Giants

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

64 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cleveland Guardians (Local)

Predicción 63.71%1.57momio equitativo
EV +0.026%
Ventaja +0.017%
Kelly +0.046%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.57

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
60.05%63.61%63.86%65.12%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.441.521.521.5769.44%65.95%66.01%63.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

San Francisco Giants (Visitante)

Predicción 36.29%2.76momio equitativo
EV +1.61%
Ventaja +0.575%
Kelly +0.894%
Crecimiento +0.014%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.88%36.39%36.14%39.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.302.582.602.8043.48%38.83%38.46%35.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Cleveland Guardians (Local): 63.71%; San Francisco Giants (Visitante): 36.29%. Para San Francisco Giants (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.76. 4 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.80, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.61%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (64 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Caesars🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 65.12%EV -4.43%E -2.96%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.88%EV +1.61%E +0.575%K +0.894%G +0.014%2.4%2026-08-18 22:35
DraftKings🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 64.65%EV -3.16%E -2.08%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.35%EV +0.884%E +0.318%K +0.497%G +0.004%1.8%2026-08-18 22:35
theScore Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.02%EV -5.07%E -3.40%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.98%EV +0.521%E +0.188%K +0.294%G +0.002%3.2%2026-08-18 22:35
FanDuel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 64.34%EV -2.52%E -1.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.66%EV +0.158%E +0.057%K +0.090%G +0.000%1.6%2026-08-18 21:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 64.10%EV -1.89%E -1.22%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.90%EV -0.205%E -0.074%K -0.117%G +0.000%1.3%2026-08-18 20:35
Everygame🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -4.43%E -2.96%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV -0.205%E -0.074%K -0.117%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-18 22:21
BetOnline.ag🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 64.32%EV -3.16%E -2.08%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.68%EV -0.568%E -0.207%K -0.326%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-18 22:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 64.32%EV -3.16%E -2.08%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.68%EV -0.568%E -0.207%K -0.326%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-18 22:25
GTbets🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 64.24%EV -3.16%E -2.08%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 35.76%EV -0.931%E -0.341%K -0.538%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-18 22:25
Pinnacle🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 64.00%EV -2.52%E -1.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.00%EV -1.29%E -0.476%K -0.752%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-18 22:40
BetAnything🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.98%EV -3.16%E -2.08%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.02%EV -2.02%E -0.748%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-18 22:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -4.43%E -2.96%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -2.02%E -0.748%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-18 21:55
Fliff🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.71%E -3.86%K -11.89%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -2.02%E -0.748%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-18 20:30
BetUS🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.90%EV -3.16%E -2.08%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 36.10%EV -2.38%E -0.886%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-18 22:25
SportsBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.34%EV -5.71%E -3.86%K -11.89%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.66%EV -3.11%E -1.16%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-18 21:55
Coolbet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.34%EV -5.71%E -3.86%K -11.89%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.66%EV -3.11%E -1.16%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-18 22:34
ReBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -3.80%E -2.51%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -3.83%E -1.45%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-18 22:34
Fanatics🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.43%E -2.96%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.83%E -1.45%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-18 21:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.43%E -2.96%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.83%E -1.45%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-18 09:55
Bet Right🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.43%E -2.96%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.83%E -1.45%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-18 21:50
Bovada🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.43%E -2.96%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.83%E -1.45%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-18 22:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.71%E -3.86%K -11.89%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.83%E -1.45%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-18 22:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.35%E -4.32%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -3.83%E -1.45%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-18 21:45
888sport🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.35%E -4.32%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -3.83%E -1.45%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-18 21:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.35%E -4.32%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -3.83%E -1.45%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-18 21:50
MyBookie.ag🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.37%EV -3.16%E -2.08%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.63%EV -4.56%E -1.73%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-18 22:35
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.26%E -5.73%K -18.76%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -4.92%E -1.88%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-18 20:14
1xBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 62.44%EV +0.026%E +0.017%K +0.046%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 37.56%EV -5.29%E -2.03%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-18 04:29
Unibet (UK)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -3.16%E -2.08%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -5.65%E -2.17%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-18 22:39
TAB🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -3.16%E -2.08%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -5.65%E -2.17%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-18 10:54
PlayUp🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.43%E -2.96%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.65%E -2.17%K -3.53%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-18 22:35
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.43%E -2.96%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.65%E -2.17%K -3.53%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-18 22:35
Dabble (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.71%E -3.86%K -11.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.65%E -2.17%K -3.53%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-18 21:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.35%E -4.32%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -5.65%E -2.17%K -3.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-18 22:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.33%EV -4.43%E -2.96%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.67%EV -6.01%E -2.32%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-18 22:39
NordicBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.99%EV -3.80%E -2.51%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.01%EV -6.74%E -2.62%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-18 10:55
Betsson🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.99%EV -3.80%E -2.51%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.01%EV -6.74%E -2.62%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-18 10:55
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -2.52%E -1.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -7.46%E -2.93%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-18 22:38
Winamax (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.43%E -2.96%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.46%E -2.93%K -4.81%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-18 22:33
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.43%E -2.96%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.46%E -2.93%K -4.81%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-18 22:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -5.07%E -3.40%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -7.46%E -2.93%K -4.81%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-18 22:35
betano_uk🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -7.62%E -5.25%K -16.93%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -7.46%E -2.93%K -4.81%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-18 22:38
Bet Victor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -7.62%E -5.25%K -16.93%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -7.46%E -2.93%K -4.81%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-18 22:38
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.52%E -1.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -9.28%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-18 22:39
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.52%E -1.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -9.28%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-18 22:39
LeoVegas🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.43%E -2.96%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.28%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-18 22:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -5.07%E -3.40%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -9.28%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-18 22:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -6.35%E -4.32%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -9.28%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-18 22:38
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -1.25%E -0.805%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -11.09%E -4.53%K -7.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-18 22:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -1.25%E -0.805%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -11.09%E -4.53%K -7.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-18 22:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV +0.026%E +0.017%K +0.046%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV -11.82%E -4.86%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-18 22:40
Casumo🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV +0.026%E +0.017%K +0.046%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -12.91%E -5.38%K -9.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-18 22:40
BetRivers🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV +0.026%E +0.017%K +0.046%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -12.91%E -5.38%K -9.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-18 22:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV +0.026%E +0.017%K +0.046%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -12.91%E -5.38%K -9.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-18 22:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV +0.026%E +0.017%K +0.046%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -12.91%E -5.38%K -9.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-18 22:40
TABtouch🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV +0.026%E +0.017%K +0.046%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -12.91%E -5.38%K -9.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-18 22:40
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV +0.026%E +0.017%K +0.046%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -12.91%E -5.38%K -9.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-18 22:40
Bally Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV +0.026%E +0.017%K +0.046%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -12.91%E -5.38%K -9.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-18 22:40
betPARX🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV +0.026%E +0.017%K +0.046%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -12.91%E -5.38%K -9.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-18 22:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV +0.026%E +0.017%K +0.046%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -12.91%E -5.38%K -9.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-18 22:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV +0.026%E +0.017%K +0.046%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -12.91%E -5.38%K -9.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-18 22:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -0.611%E -0.392%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -14.72%E -6.26%K -10.90%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-18 22:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -0.611%E -0.392%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -14.72%E -6.26%K -10.90%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-18 22:40
Grosvenor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -2.52%E -1.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -16.53%E -7.19%K -12.72%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-18 22:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48%0.6%2026-08-18 22:40
Polymarket◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%0.9%2026-08-18 12:40
Novig◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%0.9%2026-08-18 22:40
Kalshi◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%0.9%2026-08-18 19:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 64.67%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.33%1.1%2026-08-18 22:15
Matchbook◎1.53I 65.36%NM 64.50%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.50%1.3%2026-08-18 22:40
ProphetX◎1.53I 65.36%NM 64.50%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.50%1.3%2026-08-18 22:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 64.50%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.50%1.3%2026-08-18 22:40
Smarkets◎1.52I 65.79%NM 64.65%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.35%1.8%2026-08-18 22:40
BetOpenly◎1.53I 65.36%NM 63.83%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.17%2.4%2026-08-18 22:35