Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cleveland Guardians v San Diego Padres

2026-08-15 23:11 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cleveland Guardians (Local)

Prediction 52.42%1.91fair odd
EV -1.45%
Edge -0.773%
Kelly -1.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.32%52.55%52.41%53.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.821.811.8856.82%55.09%55.25%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Diego Padres (Visit)

Prediction 47.58%2.10fair odd
EV -0.079%
Edge -0.038%
Kelly -0.072%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.56%47.45%47.59%48.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.002.002.1051.55%49.99%50.00%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Cleveland Guardians (Local): 52.42%; San Diego Padres (Visit): 47.58%. For San Diego Padres (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.102. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.100, with an expected value of -0.079%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 52.16%EV -1.45%E -0.773%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.84%EV -2.46%E -1.20%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-15 07:24
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 52.30%EV -1.98%E -1.06%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.70%EV -2.46%E -1.20%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-15 06:40
TAB🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.03%E -1.64%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.84%E -2.42%K -4.84%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-15 03:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.03%E -1.64%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.84%E -2.42%K -4.84%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-15 05:39
Dabble (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.03%E -1.64%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -7.22%E -3.70%K -7.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 07:34
Caesars🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -4.07%E -2.23%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -0.079%E -0.038%K -0.072%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-15 06:44
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.07%E -2.23%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.89%E -1.92%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-15 03:34
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.34%EV -4.07%E -2.23%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.66%EV -4.36%E -2.17%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-15 04:09
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.07%E -2.23%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.84%E -2.42%K -4.84%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-15 03:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.07%E -2.23%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.84%E -2.42%K -4.84%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-15 03:39
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.07%E -2.23%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.84%E -2.42%K -4.84%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-15 06:34
NordicBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.07%E -2.23%K -4.91%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.79%E -2.92%K -5.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 03:54
Betsson🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.07%E -2.23%K -4.91%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.79%E -2.92%K -5.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 03:54
Bet Right🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -4.60%E -2.53%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -3.89%E -1.92%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-15 03:44
Coolbet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.60%E -2.53%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.84%E -2.42%K -4.84%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-15 03:39
PlayUp🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.60%E -2.53%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.84%E -2.42%K -4.84%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-15 03:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.23%EV -4.60%E -2.53%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.77%EV -5.31%E -2.67%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-15 07:04
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.65%E -3.14%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.46%E -1.20%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-15 03:55
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.65%E -3.14%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.46%E -1.20%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-15 07:04
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.65%E -3.14%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.84%E -2.42%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 03:34
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.65%E -3.14%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.84%E -2.42%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 03:34
ReBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.65%E -3.14%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.84%E -2.42%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 03:34
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.65%E -3.14%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.84%E -2.42%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 03:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.65%E -3.14%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.84%E -2.42%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 03:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.65%E -3.14%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.84%E -2.42%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 03:44
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.65%E -3.14%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.84%E -2.42%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 03:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.65%E -3.14%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.84%E -2.42%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 03:49
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.65%E -3.14%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.84%E -2.42%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 05:14
Betclic (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -5.65%E -3.14%K -7.06%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.79%E -2.92%K -5.91%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 03:39
betano_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.65%E -3.14%K -7.06%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.22%E -3.70%K -7.60%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 03:38
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.65%E -3.14%K -7.06%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.22%E -3.70%K -7.60%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 03:38
Tipico (DE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.22%E -4.08%K -9.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.84%E -2.42%K -4.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 07:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.29%EV -7.22%E -4.08%K -9.37%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.71%EV -7.69%E -3.97%K -8.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-15 05:14
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.43%EV -7.74%E -4.40%K -10.19%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.57%EV -7.69%E -3.97%K -8.18%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-15 03:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.89I 52.91%NM 52.75%2.11I 47.39%NM 47.25%0.3%2026-08-15 07:09
ProphetX1.86I 53.76%NM 53.27%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.73%0.9%2026-08-15 06:09
Kalshi1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-08-15 03:34
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.87I 53.48%NM 52.42%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.58%2.0%2026-08-15 06:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.87I 53.48%NM 52.42%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.58%2.0%2026-08-15 06:35
Polymarket1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%2.1%2026-08-15 05:50
Matchbook1.85I 54.05%NM 52.69%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.31%2.6%2026-08-15 06:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.84I 54.35%NM 52.82%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.18%2.9%2026-08-15 06:39
Smarkets1.84I 54.35%NM 52.58%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.42%3.4%2026-08-15 06:39

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