Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Cleveland Guardians v San Diego Padres

Início: 2026-08-15 23:11 UTC

Final: Cleveland Guardians 6–1 San Diego Padres

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

62 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Cleveland Guardians (Local)

Previsão 51.05%1.96odd justa
EV -0.971%
Vantagem -0.500%
Kelly -1.03%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.94

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
50.00%51.19%51.04%52.52%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.751.861.851.9457.14%53.72%53.91%51.55%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

San Diego Padres (Visitante)

Previsão 48.95%2.04odd justa
EV -0.134%
Vantagem -0.066%
Kelly -0.129%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.04

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
47.48%48.81%48.96%50.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.871.961.952.0453.48%50.98%51.28%49.02%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Cleveland Guardians (Local): 51.05%; San Diego Padres (Visitante): 48.95%. Para San Diego Padres (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.043. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 2.040, com valor esperado de -0.134%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (62 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
DraftKings🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 50.64%EV -0.971%E -0.500%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.36%EV -2.58%E -1.30%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.8%2026-08-15 23:04
FanDuel🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 50.51%EV -0.971%E -0.500%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.49%EV -3.07%E -1.55%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-15 22:44
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.89%EV -1.48%E -0.767%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.11%EV -2.09%E -1.05%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.8%2026-08-15 22:44
1xBet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.77%EV -1.48%E -0.767%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.23%EV -2.58%E -1.30%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-15 22:49
BetUS🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.90%EV -1.99%E -1.04%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.10%EV -2.58%E -1.30%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-15 22:58
GTbets🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.90%EV -1.99%E -1.04%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.10%EV -2.58%E -1.30%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-15 22:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.90%EV -1.99%E -1.04%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.10%EV -2.58%E -1.30%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-15 22:49
LowVig.ag🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.90%EV -1.99%E -1.04%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.10%EV -2.58%E -1.30%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-15 22:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -2.50%E -1.31%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV -2.09%E -1.05%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-15 22:39
BetAnything🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.90%EV -2.50%E -1.31%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.10%EV -3.07%E -1.55%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-15 23:04
ReBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.52%EV -2.50%E -1.31%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.48%EV -4.54%E -2.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-15 23:09
MyBookie.ag🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.26%EV -2.50%E -1.31%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.74%EV -5.52%E -2.86%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-15 23:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.50%E -1.31%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.50%E -3.40%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 22:40
theScore Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 51.03%EV -3.01%E -1.59%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.97%EV -3.07%E -1.55%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-15 22:40
TAB🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.65%EV -3.01%E -1.59%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.35%EV -4.54%E -2.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-15 22:43
SportsBet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -3.52%E -1.86%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -6.50%E -3.40%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 22:44
Caesars🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.92%EV -4.03%E -2.15%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 48.08%EV -0.624%E -0.307%K -0.605%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-15 22:38
Bovada🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -4.03%E -2.15%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -5.03%E -2.59%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 22:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.54%E -2.43%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.54%E -2.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-15 22:39
PlayUp🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.54%E -2.43%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.54%E -2.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-15 22:40
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.54%E -2.43%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.54%E -2.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-15 22:39
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.54%E -2.43%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.54%E -2.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-15 22:39
Betsson🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.54%E -2.43%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.03%E -2.59%K -5.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 23:09
Neds🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.54%E -2.43%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.03%E -2.59%K -5.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 22:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.54%E -2.43%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.03%E -2.59%K -5.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 22:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -4.54%E -2.43%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -5.52%E -2.86%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 22:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.66%EV -4.54%E -2.43%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.34%EV -6.01%E -3.13%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 22:44
Fliff🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -4.54%E -2.43%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -6.50%E -3.40%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 22:44
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -4.54%E -2.43%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -8.46%E -4.52%K -9.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 22:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.79%EV -5.05%E -2.72%K -5.88%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.21%EV -6.01%E -3.13%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 23:04
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.79%EV -5.05%E -2.72%K -5.88%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.21%EV -6.01%E -3.13%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 23:04
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.44%EV -5.56%E -3.01%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.56%EV -0.134%E -0.066%K -0.129%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-15 20:29
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.44%EV -5.56%E -3.01%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.56%EV -0.134%E -0.066%K -0.129%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-15 20:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -5.56%E -3.01%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -2.09%E -1.05%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-15 23:10
Dabble (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -5.56%E -3.01%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -3.07%E -1.55%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-15 22:40
Bet Right🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -5.56%E -3.01%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -3.56%E -1.81%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-15 22:44
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -5.56%E -3.01%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -4.05%E -2.07%K -4.22%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 22:39
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.56%E -3.01%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.54%E -2.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 22:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.56%E -3.01%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.54%E -2.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 22:39
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.56%E -3.01%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.54%E -2.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 22:39
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.56%E -3.01%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.54%E -2.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 23:04
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.56%E -3.01%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.50%E -3.40%K -7.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-15 22:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.56%E -3.01%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.50%E -3.40%K -7.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-15 22:44
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.56%E -3.01%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.50%E -3.40%K -7.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-15 22:44
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.80%EV -6.08%E -3.30%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.20%EV -6.99%E -3.68%K -7.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 23:04
Unibet (NL)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -6.59%E -3.60%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -1.11%E -0.551%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-15 20:29
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -6.59%E -3.60%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -1.11%E -0.551%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-15 23:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -6.59%E -3.60%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -1.11%E -0.551%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-15 20:30
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.59%E -3.60%K -7.93%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -4.54%E -2.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 23:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -6.59%E -3.60%K -7.93%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -5.52%E -2.86%K -5.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 21:34
Unibet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -7.10%E -3.90%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -2.09%E -1.05%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-15 20:35
Casumo🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -7.10%E -3.90%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -2.09%E -1.05%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-15 20:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -7.10%E -3.90%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -2.09%E -1.05%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-15 20:34
ATG (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -7.10%E -3.90%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -2.09%E -1.05%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-15 20:34
betPARX🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -7.10%E -3.90%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -2.09%E -1.05%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-15 20:34
Bally Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -7.10%E -3.90%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -2.09%E -1.05%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-15 20:33
Betclic (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.81%EV -7.10%E -3.90%K -8.65%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.19%EV -7.97%E -4.24%K -9.05%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-15 23:07
betano_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -8.12%E -4.51%K -10.15%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -4.54%E -2.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 22:58
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -8.12%E -4.51%K -10.15%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -4.54%E -2.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 22:59
LiveScore Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.52%EV -8.63%E -4.82%K -10.92%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.48%EV -3.07%E -1.55%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-15 20:29
Virgin Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.52%EV -8.63%E -4.82%K -10.92%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.48%EV -3.07%E -1.55%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-15 20:30
Grosvenor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.45%EV -10.67%E -6.10%K -14.23%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -5.52%E -2.86%K -5.93%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 20:30
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (10)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
ProphetX◎1.98I 50.51%NM 50.38%2.01I 49.75%NM 49.62%0.3%2026-08-15 23:10
Novig◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25%0.5%2026-08-15 22:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25%0.5%2026-08-15 23:04
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25%0.5%2026-08-15 23:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25%0.5%2026-08-15 23:04
Polymarket◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.0%2026-08-15 22:59
Kalshi◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.1%2026-08-15 21:40
Matchbook◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.38%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.62%1.3%2026-08-15 23:10
BetOpenly◎1.91I 52.36%NM 51.40%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.60%1.9%2026-08-15 23:04
Smarkets◎1.93I 51.81%NM 50.51%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.49%2.6%2026-08-15 23:10