The School of Odds

Cleveland Guardians v Pittsburgh Pirates

2026-07-18 20:11 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Cleveland Guardians (Local)

Prediction 48.36%2.07fair odd
EV -1.35%
Edge -0.663%
Kelly -1.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.37%48.31%48.49%50.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.861.971.972.0454%51%51%49%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Pittsburgh Pirates (Visit)

Prediction 51.64%1.94fair odd
EV -1.36%
Edge -0.712%
Kelly -1.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%51.69%51.51%52.63%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.761.841.841.9157%54%54%52%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag2.04I 49.02%NM 47.83%EV -1.35%E -0.663%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 52.17%EV -3.43%E -1.83%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-17 18:59
BetOnline.ag2.04I 49.02%NM 47.83%EV -1.35%E -0.663%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 52.17%EV -3.43%E -1.83%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-17 18:59
1xBet2.01I 49.75%NM 48.72%EV -2.80%E -1.39%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.28%EV -1.36%E -0.712%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-17 19:04
FanDuel2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -3.29%E -1.64%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -4.46%E -2.41%K -5.25%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-17 17:39
Fanatics2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.29%E -1.64%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.49%E -3.00%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-17 18:59
Caesars2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.29%E -1.64%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.49%E -3.00%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-17 18:59
888sport2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.29%E -1.64%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.04%E -3.91%K -8.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 18:59
888sport (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.29%E -1.64%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.04%E -3.91%K -8.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 18:59
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.29%E -1.64%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.04%E -3.91%K -8.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 18:59
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.29%E -1.64%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.04%E -3.91%K -8.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 20:14
MyBookie.ag1.98I 50.51%NM 48.57%EV -4.25%E -2.15%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.43%EV -3.43%E -1.83%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-17 18:59
Bet Right1.98I 50.51%NM 48.17%EV -4.25%E -2.15%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.83%EV -4.98%E -2.70%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-17 18:59
PlayUp1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -4.25%E -2.15%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -5.49%E -3.00%K -6.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-17 18:59
Unibet (UK)1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -4.74%E -2.41%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -4.46%E -2.41%K -5.25%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-17 18:59
Betr (AU)1.97I 50.76%NM 48.29%EV -4.74%E -2.41%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.71%EV -4.98%E -2.70%K -5.92%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-17 18:59
DraftKings1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -5.22%E -2.66%K -5.44%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -3.94%E -2.12%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-17 18:59
SportsBet1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%EV -5.22%E -2.66%K -5.44%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%EV -4.98%E -2.70%K -5.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-17 17:39
Winamax (DE)1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%EV -5.22%E -2.66%K -5.44%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%EV -4.98%E -2.70%K -5.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-17 18:59
PointsBet (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.71%E -2.93%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.43%E -1.83%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-17 18:59
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.71%E -2.93%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.43%E -1.83%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-17 20:14
ReBet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.71%E -2.93%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.49%E -3.00%K -6.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-17 20:14
Betclic (FR)1.94I 51.55%NM 48.54%EV -6.19%E -3.19%K -6.58%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.46%EV -5.49%E -3.00%K -6.62%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-17 18:57
betano_uk1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -6.67%E -3.46%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -5.49%E -3.00%K -6.62%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-17 18:59
Bet Victor1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -6.67%E -3.46%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -5.49%E -3.00%K -6.62%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-17 18:57
Fliff1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -7.64%E -4.00%K -8.40%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -3.43%E -1.83%K -3.94%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-17 19:19
Paddy Power1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -8.12%E -4.28%K -9.03%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -1.88%E -0.988%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 17:40
Unibet (FR)1.87I 53.48%NM 48.63%EV -9.57%E -5.12%K -11.00%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.37%EV -8.59%E -4.85%K -11.16%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-17 18:59
Winamax (FR)1.86I 53.76%NM 48.62%EV -10.06%E -5.41%K -11.69%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.38%EV -9.11%E -5.17%K -11.98%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-17 18:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-07-17 19:14
Polymarket2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-07-17 18:59
Novig1.98I 50.51%NM 49.49%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.51%2.1%2026-07-17 20:09
Smarkets1.87I 53.48%NM 48.63%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.37%10.0%2026-07-17 19:00