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默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
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Cleveland Guardians v Pittsburgh Pirates

开赛时间： 2026-07-18 20:11 UTC

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

30 家博彩公司 (12 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Cleveland Guardians (主队)

预测 47.81%2.09公平赔率
EV -1.98%
优势 -0.968%
Kelly -1.89%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 2.05

博彩公司预测分布
47.37%47.88%47.80%49.47%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.911.992.002.0552.36%50.29%50.00%48.78%最小值均值中位数最大值

Pittsburgh Pirates (客队)

预测 52.19%1.92公平赔率
EV -1.37%
优势 -0.723%
Kelly -1.54%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.89

博彩公司预测分布
50.53%52.12%52.20%52.63%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.761.821.831.8956.82%54.81%54.64%52.91%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Cleveland Guardians (主队)：47.81%；Pittsburgh Pirates (客队)：52.19%。 对于“Pittsburgh Pirates (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为1.92。 当时没有符合条件的博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率：最佳赔率为1.89，期望值为-1.37%，未产生正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (30 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队 ▼客队利润率更新时间
GTbets🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.70%EV -1.98%E -0.968%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 52.30%EV -2.41%E -1.29%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-17 20:39
1xBet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 48.09%EV -2.46%E -1.21%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91%EV -1.37%E -0.723%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-17 20:34
LowVig.ag🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.83%EV -2.46%E -1.21%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 52.17%EV -2.41%E -1.29%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-17 18:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.83%EV -2.46%E -1.21%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 52.17%EV -2.41%E -1.29%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-17 18:59
FanDuel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.42%E -1.69%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.50%E -2.46%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-17 20:19
MyBookie.ag🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.93%EV -3.90%E -1.94%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.07%EV -3.45%E -1.87%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-17 20:34
Bovada🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.66%EV -3.90%E -1.94%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.34%EV -4.50%E -2.46%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-17 20:34
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.37%E -2.19%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.50%E -2.46%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-17 18:59
Bet Right🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.37%E -2.19%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.50%E -2.46%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-17 20:24
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.37%E -2.19%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.50%E -2.46%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-17 20:29
Caesars🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.37%E -2.19%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.50%E -2.46%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-17 18:59
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.37%E -2.19%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.50%E -2.46%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-17 20:29
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.37%E -2.19%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.06%E -3.37%K -7.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 20:19
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.37%E -2.19%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.06%E -3.37%K -7.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 20:19
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.37%E -2.19%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.06%E -3.37%K -7.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 18:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.37%E -2.19%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.06%E -3.37%K -7.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 18:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.37%E -2.19%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.06%E -3.37%K -7.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 18:59
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.37%E -2.19%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.06%E -3.37%K -7.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 20:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.77%EV -4.85%E -2.44%K -4.90%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.23%EV -5.02%E -2.76%K -6.12%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-17 20:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.33%E -2.69%K -5.44%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.50%E -2.46%K -5.42%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-17 20:29
PlayUp🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.33%E -2.69%K -5.44%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.50%E -2.46%K -5.42%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-17 18:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -5.33%E -2.69%K -5.44%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -5.02%E -2.76%K -6.12%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-17 20:29
Betclic (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -5.81%E -2.95%K -5.99%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV -5.54%E -3.06%K -6.84%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-17 20:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -6.76%E -3.47%K -7.12%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -2.41%E -1.29%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-17 18:59
betano_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.76%E -3.47%K -7.12%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.06%E -3.37%K -7.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-17 20:28
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.76%E -3.47%K -7.12%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.06%E -3.37%K -7.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-17 20:29
ReBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.76%E -3.47%K -7.12%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.06%E -3.37%K -7.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-17 20:29
Winamax (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.83%EV -8.20%E -4.27%K -8.91%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.17%EV -8.15%E -4.63%K -10.72%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-17 20:29
Fliff🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -8.68%E -4.54%K -9.54%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -2.41%E -1.29%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-17 19:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.96%EV -8.68%E -4.54%K -9.54%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.04%EV -8.15%E -4.63%K -10.72%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-17 20:29
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (4)

博彩公司主队客队利润率 ▲更新时间
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-07-17 19:14
Polymarket◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-07-17 18:59
Novig◎1.98I 50.51%NM 49.49%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.51%2.1%2026-07-17 20:09
Smarkets◎1.89I 52.91%NM 48.08%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.92%10.1%2026-07-17 20:29