The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Cleveland Guardians v New York Mets

Kickoff: 2026-08-06 17:11 UTC

Final: Cleveland Guardians 6–13 New York Mets

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

63 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cleveland Guardians (Local)

Prediction 53.64%1.86fair odd
EV -0.227%
Edge -0.122%
Kelly -0.264%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.59%53.85%53.52%55.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.781.791.8659.52%56.09%55.87%53.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New York Mets (Visit)

Prediction 46.36%2.16fair odd
EV -0.329%
Edge -0.153%
Kelly -0.286%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.01%46.15%46.48%48.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.052.052.1551.28%48.66%48.78%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cleveland Guardians (Local): 53.64%; New York Mets (Visit): 46.36%. For Cleveland Guardians (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.864. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.860, with an expected value of -0.227%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 52.79%EV -0.227%E -0.122%K -0.264%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.21%EV -3.57%E -1.72%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.8%2026-08-06 17:10
1xBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 53.05%EV -0.763%E -0.412%K -0.898%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.95%EV -3.11%E -1.49%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-06 15:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -0.763%E -0.412%K -0.898%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-06 17:10
LowVig.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -1.84%E -1.00%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -2.65%E -1.26%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-06 17:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -1.84%E -1.00%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -2.65%E -1.26%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-06 17:10
BetUS🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -1.84%E -1.00%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -2.65%E -1.26%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-06 17:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -1.84%E -1.00%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-06 17:09
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -1.84%E -1.00%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-06 17:09
Fliff🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -1.84%E -1.00%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -9.60%E -4.92%K -10.11%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 17:09
Svenska Spel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.57%EV -2.37%E -1.30%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.43%EV -2.65%E -1.26%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-06 17:10
DraftKings🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 54.18%EV -2.91%E -1.61%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.82%EV -0.793%E -0.371%K -0.696%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-06 16:20
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 54.06%EV -2.91%E -1.61%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.94%EV -1.26%E -0.590%K -1.11%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-06 17:10
BetAnything🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.59%EV -2.91%E -1.61%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.41%EV -3.11%E -1.49%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-06 17:10
Caesars🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -3.45%E -1.91%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV -0.329%E -0.153%K -0.286%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-06 17:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -3.45%E -1.91%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV -0.329%E -0.153%K -0.286%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-06 16:55
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.96%EV -3.45%E -1.91%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.04%EV -2.18%E -1.03%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-06 17:10
Grosvenor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.37%EV -3.45%E -1.91%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.63%EV -4.50%E -2.19%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-06 17:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.37%EV -3.45%E -1.91%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.63%EV -4.50%E -2.19%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-06 17:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.37%EV -3.45%E -1.91%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.63%EV -4.50%E -2.19%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-06 17:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.45%E -1.91%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.97%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-06 15:10
ReBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.45%E -1.91%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.97%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-06 17:09
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.45%E -1.91%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.97%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-06 15:55
LeoVegas🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.45%E -1.91%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.97%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-06 17:10
TAB🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.45%E -1.91%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.97%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-06 16:25
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.45%E -1.91%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.97%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-06 17:10
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.45%E -1.91%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.36%E -3.15%K -6.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-06 17:10
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.45%E -1.91%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.36%E -3.15%K -6.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-06 17:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.45%E -1.91%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.36%E -3.15%K -6.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-06 15:55
Dabble (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.45%E -1.91%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.36%E -3.15%K -6.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-06 16:30
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.45%E -1.91%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-06 17:10
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.45%E -1.91%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.60%E -4.92%K -10.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-06 17:10
MyBookie.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -3.98%E -2.22%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -3.57%E -1.72%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-06 16:58
Unibet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -3.98%E -2.22%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -4.97%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-06 17:10
Casumo🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -3.98%E -2.22%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -4.97%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-06 17:10
betPARX🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -3.98%E -2.22%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -4.97%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-06 17:10
Bally Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -3.98%E -2.22%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -4.97%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-06 17:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -3.98%E -2.22%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -4.97%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-06 17:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.98%E -2.22%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -6.36%E -3.15%K -6.23%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 17:05
Bet Right🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.52%E -2.54%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.97%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-06 17:09
Coolbet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.52%E -2.54%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.97%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-06 17:09
TABtouch🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -4.52%E -2.54%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -5.43%E -2.66%K -5.22%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-06 17:10
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -4.52%E -2.54%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -5.89%E -2.90%K -5.72%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 16:25
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -4.52%E -2.54%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -5.89%E -2.90%K -5.72%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 16:25
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.05%E -2.86%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.97%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-06 15:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.05%E -2.86%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-06 17:09
GTbets🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -5.59%E -3.18%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -4.04%E -1.95%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-06 17:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.59%E -3.18%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -4.97%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-06 16:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.44%EV -5.59%E -3.18%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.56%EV -6.36%E -3.15%K -6.23%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-06 17:10
Bovada🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.66%EV -6.13%E -3.50%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.34%EV -2.18%E -1.03%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-06 17:09
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.13%E -3.50%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.97%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 15:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.13%E -3.50%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.97%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 15:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.13%E -3.50%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.97%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 15:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.13%E -3.50%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.97%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 17:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.13%E -3.50%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-06 17:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.23%EV -6.66%E -3.83%K -9.00%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.77%EV -8.21%E -4.15%K -8.38%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-06 17:09
BetRivers🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.10%EV -6.66%E -3.83%K -9.00%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.90%EV -8.67%E -4.40%K -8.94%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-06 17:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.26%EV -7.74%E -4.50%K -10.75%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.74%EV -9.14%E -4.66%K -9.52%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-06 17:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -8.81%E -5.18%K -12.58%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -0.329%E -0.153%K -0.286%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-06 17:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -8.81%E -5.18%K -12.58%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -2.65%E -1.26%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-06 17:10
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -8.81%E -5.18%K -12.58%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -2.65%E -1.26%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-06 17:00
betano_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -8.81%E -5.18%K -12.58%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -2.65%E -1.26%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-06 17:00
Betway🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -9.35%E -5.53%K -13.54%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -0.329%E -0.153%K -0.286%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-06 17:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -9.88%E -5.88%K -14.53%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -2.65%E -1.26%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-06 17:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50%0.5%2026-08-06 17:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.63%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.37%0.8%2026-08-06 17:00
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-08-06 17:05
Polymarket◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.0%2026-08-06 17:10
Matchbook◎1.84I 54.35%NM 53.77%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.23%1.1%2026-08-06 17:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 53.90%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.10%1.4%2026-08-06 17:10
Novig◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.16%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.84%1.5%2026-08-06 17:10
ProphetX◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.04%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.96%1.7%2026-08-06 17:10
Smarkets◎1.82I 54.95%NM 53.81%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.19%2.1%2026-08-06 17:10
BetOpenly◎1.89I 52.91%NM 50.91%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.09%3.9%2026-08-06 17:09