The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Cleveland Guardians v New York Mets

2026-08-06 17:11 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cleveland Guardians (Local)

Prediction 50.49%1.98fair odd
EV -1.04%
Edge -0.528%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.61%50.42%50.66%52.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.881.881.9655.56%53.25%53.19%51.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New York Mets (Visit)

Prediction 49.51%2.02fair odd
EV +2.48%
Edge +1.20%
Kelly +2.32%
Growth +0.058%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.33%49.58%49.34%50.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.861.931.922.0753.76%51.89%52.08%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Cleveland Guardians (Local): 50.49%; New York Mets (Visit): 49.51%. For New York Mets (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.02. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.07, producing a positive expected value of +2.48%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 52.67%EV -6.08%E -3.27%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 47.33%EV +2.48%E +1.20%K +2.32%G +0.058%2.1%2026-08-05 19:00
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -9.11%E -5.06%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -0.985%E -0.492%K -0.985%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-05 19:35
Caesars🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -1.54%E -0.790%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -3.46%E -1.77%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-05 18:59
Fliff🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.58%E -2.98%K -6.41%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.46%E -1.77%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 20:00
Betway🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.58%E -2.98%K -6.41%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.46%E -1.77%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 18:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.74%EV -1.04%E -0.528%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.26%EV -3.96%E -2.04%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-05 19:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.74%EV -1.04%E -0.528%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.26%EV -3.96%E -2.04%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-05 19:00
MyBookie.ag🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.52%EV -4.06%E -2.14%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.48%EV -3.96%E -2.04%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-05 19:04
Bet Right🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -5.07%E -2.70%K -5.77%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -3.96%E -2.04%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 18:55
DraftKings🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -5.07%E -2.70%K -5.77%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -3.96%E -2.04%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 19:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -5.07%E -2.70%K -5.77%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.45%E -2.31%K -4.79%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 19:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -5.07%E -2.70%K -5.77%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.45%E -2.31%K -4.79%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 19:00
PlayUp🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -5.07%E -2.70%K -5.77%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.45%E -2.31%K -4.79%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 20:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -5.07%E -2.70%K -5.77%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -4.95%E -2.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 19:00
FanDuel🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.61%EV -2.04%E -1.05%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.39%EV -5.44%E -2.85%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-05 18:30
ReBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -5.58%E -2.98%K -6.41%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.44%E -2.85%K -5.98%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 19:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.66%EV -6.08%E -3.27%K -7.07%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.34%EV -5.44%E -2.85%K -5.98%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-05 18:59
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.59%E -3.56%K -7.75%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.44%E -2.85%K -5.98%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 18:55
Bet Victor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.59%E -3.56%K -7.75%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.44%E -2.85%K -5.98%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 18:59
betano_uk🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.59%E -3.56%K -7.75%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.44%E -2.85%K -5.98%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 18:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.59%E -3.56%K -7.75%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.44%E -2.85%K -5.98%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.59%E -3.56%K -7.75%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.44%E -2.85%K -5.98%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 18:55
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.06%E -2.14%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.94%E -3.12%K -6.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 18:30
Paddy Power🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.06%E -2.14%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.94%E -3.12%K -6.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 18:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.06%E -2.14%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.94%E -3.12%K -6.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 18:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.54%EV -8.10%E -4.45%K -9.88%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.46%EV -7.92%E -4.26%K -9.20%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-05 19:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.68%EV -8.61%E -4.76%K -10.63%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.32%EV -7.92%E -4.26%K -9.20%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-05 19:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 51.00%2.04I 49.02%NM 49.00%0.0%2026-08-05 20:00
Polymarket◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.0%2026-08-05 19:55
Novig◎1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%4.6%2026-08-05 20:15
Smarkets◎1.80I 55.56%NM 50.55%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.45%9.9%2026-08-05 19:00
Arbitrage (4 combinations) +0.67%LowVig.ag 1.96 (51.4%) / 1xBet 2.07 (48.6%)Show all 4 combinations
Cleveland Guardians (Local)New York Mets (Visit)Margin
LowVig.ag🎯 1.96 (51.4%)1xBet🎯 2.07 (48.6%)+0.675%
BetOnline.ag🎯 1.96 (51.4%)1xBet🎯 2.07 (48.6%)+0.675%
Caesars🎯 1.95 (51.5%)1xBet🎯 2.07 (48.5%)+0.410%
FanDuel🎯 1.94 (51.6%)1xBet🎯 2.07 (48.4%)+0.145%