La escuela de los momios

Cleveland Guardians v Chicago White Sox

Inicio: 2026-07-04 23:11 UTC

Final: Cleveland Guardians 1–3 Chicago White Sox

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

62 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Cleveland Guardians (Local)

Predicción 55.87%1.79momio equitativo
EV -0.550%
Ventaja -0.309%
Kelly -0.705%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.78

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.69%55.89%55.84%57.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.621.701.701.7861.73%58.77%58.82%56.18%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Chicago White Sox (Visitante)

Predicción 44.13%2.27momio equitativo
EV -0.710%
Ventaja -0.315%
Kelly -0.568%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.97%44.11%44.16%45.31%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.162.152.2550.00%46.21%46.51%44.44%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (62 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Everygame1.78I 56.18%NM 55.05%EV -0.550%E -0.309%K -0.705%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.95%EV -3.80%E -1.74%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-04 22:24
Pinnacle1.76I 56.82%NM 55.78%EV -1.67%E -0.947%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.22%EV -2.03%E -0.916%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-04 23:09
GTbets1.75I 57.14%NM 56.03%EV -2.23%E -1.27%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.97%EV -1.59%E -0.714%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-04 23:09
1xBet1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%EV -2.23%E -1.27%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%EV -2.03%E -0.916%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.2%2026-07-04 19:45
BetOnline.ag1.75I 57.14%NM 55.81%EV -2.23%E -1.27%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 44.19%EV -2.47%E -1.12%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-04 23:10
LowVig.ag1.75I 57.14%NM 55.81%EV -2.23%E -1.27%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 44.19%EV -2.47%E -1.12%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-04 23:10
BetUS1.75I 57.14%NM 55.81%EV -2.23%E -1.27%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 44.19%EV -2.47%E -1.12%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-04 23:09
BetAnything1.75I 57.14%NM 55.81%EV -2.23%E -1.27%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 44.19%EV -2.47%E -1.12%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-04 22:45
MyBookie.ag1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -2.78%E -1.60%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -4.68%E -2.17%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-04 22:29
Caesars1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.78%E -1.60%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -5.12%E -2.38%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-04 22:05
Fliff1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.78%E -1.60%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -7.33%E -3.49%K -6.66%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 21:45
Coral1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -3.34%E -1.93%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -5.12%E -2.38%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-04 22:05
Ladbrokes (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -3.34%E -1.93%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -5.12%E -2.38%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-04 22:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.34%E -1.93%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.33%E -3.49%K -6.66%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-04 23:10
Unibet (UK)1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.90%E -2.27%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -5.12%E -2.38%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-04 23:10
Neds1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.90%E -2.27%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -5.12%E -2.38%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-04 22:05
Ladbrokes (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.90%E -2.27%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -5.12%E -2.38%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-04 22:00
Bovada1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.90%E -2.27%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -5.12%E -2.38%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-04 23:00
Svenska Spel1.71I 58.48%NM 56.82%EV -4.46%E -2.61%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.18%EV -0.710%E -0.315%K -0.568%G +0.000%2.9%2026-07-04 23:05
PointsBet (AU)1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.46%E -2.61%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.92%E -1.33%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-04 20:15
ReBet1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.46%E -2.61%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.92%E -1.33%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-04 17:15
Fanatics1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.46%E -2.61%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.12%E -2.38%K -4.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-04 19:45
888sport1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.46%E -2.61%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.12%E -2.38%K -4.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-04 22:10
888sport (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.46%E -2.61%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.12%E -2.38%K -4.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-04 22:10
Mr Green (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.46%E -2.61%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.12%E -2.38%K -4.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-04 22:10
BetMGM1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.46%E -2.61%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.12%E -2.38%K -4.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-04 22:00
SportsBet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.46%E -2.61%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.56%E -2.60%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-04 22:10
TAB1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.02%E -2.95%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.92%E -1.33%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-04 12:05
Bet Right1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -5.02%E -2.95%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -3.80%E -1.74%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-04 22:10
Coolbet1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -5.02%E -2.95%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -4.24%E -1.95%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-04 22:30
PlayUp1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.02%E -2.95%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.12%E -2.38%K -4.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-04 12:20
Betr (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.02%E -2.95%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.12%E -2.38%K -4.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-04 22:10
Winamax (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.02%E -2.95%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.12%E -2.38%K -4.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-04 23:10
Marathon Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.02%E -2.95%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.12%E -2.38%K -4.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-04 19:45
Dabble (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.02%E -2.95%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.12%E -2.38%K -4.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-04 20:30
ATG (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.73%EV -5.02%E -2.95%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.27%EV -5.56%E -2.60%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-04 23:10
betPARX1.70I 58.82%NM 55.73%EV -5.02%E -2.95%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.27%EV -5.56%E -2.60%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-04 23:10
FanDuel1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -5.02%E -2.95%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -6.45%E -3.04%K -5.76%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-04 23:10
Betsson1.69I 59.17%NM 56.10%EV -5.58%E -3.30%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.90%EV -4.68%E -2.17%K -4.04%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-04 22:15
NordicBet1.69I 59.17%NM 56.10%EV -5.58%E -3.30%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.90%EV -4.68%E -2.17%K -4.04%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-04 22:15
theScore Bet1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.58%E -3.30%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.12%E -2.38%K -4.45%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-04 23:10
Betway1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.58%E -3.30%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.12%E -2.38%K -4.45%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-04 23:10
Hard Rock Bet1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -5.58%E -3.30%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -7.33%E -3.49%K -6.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-04 23:10
DraftKings1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -6.14%E -3.65%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -1.59%E -0.714%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-04 20:20
LiveScore Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.14%E -3.65%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.92%E -1.33%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-04 21:40
BetRivers1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.14%E -3.65%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.92%E -1.33%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-04 21:40
TABtouch1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.14%E -3.65%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.92%E -1.33%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-04 21:40
Bally Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.14%E -3.65%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.92%E -1.33%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-04 21:10
Unibet (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -6.14%E -3.65%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.12%E -2.38%K -4.45%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-04 23:00
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.70%E -4.01%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.92%E -1.33%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-03 17:35
Unibet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.70%E -4.01%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.92%E -1.33%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-04 23:10
Unibet (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.70%E -4.01%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.92%E -1.33%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-04 23:10
Casumo1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.70%E -4.01%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.92%E -1.33%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-04 23:10
Unibet (NL)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.70%E -4.01%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.92%E -1.33%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-04 23:10
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.70%E -4.01%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.12%E -2.38%K -4.45%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-04 22:10
Grosvenor1.66I 60.24%NM 56.54%EV -7.25%E -4.37%K -10.99%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.46%EV -4.68%E -2.17%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-04 23:10
Virgin Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.81%E -4.74%K -12.02%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.12%E -2.38%K -4.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-04 23:10
LeoVegas1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.81%E -4.74%K -12.02%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.12%E -2.38%K -4.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-04 23:10
Betclic (FR)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -7.81%E -4.74%K -12.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -7.33%E -3.49%K -6.66%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-04 23:10
Tipico (DE)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -7.81%E -4.74%K -12.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -7.33%E -3.49%K -6.66%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-04 23:10
Winamax (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 54.95%EV -8.37%E -5.10%K -13.08%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.05%EV -11.74%E -5.87%K -11.74%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-04 23:10
LeoVegas (SE)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.68%EV -9.49%E -5.86%K -15.30%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.32%EV -6.45%E -3.04%K -5.76%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-04 23:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig1.77I 56.50%NM 56.19%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.81%0.6%2026-07-04 23:10
ProphetX1.77I 56.50%NM 56.08%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.92%0.7%2026-07-04 23:10
Polymarket1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-07-04 23:10
Matchbook1.76I 56.82%NM 56.22%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.78%1.1%2026-07-04 23:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.22%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.78%1.1%2026-07-04 23:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.22%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.78%1.1%2026-07-04 23:10
Kalshi1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-07-04 23:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.75I 57.14%NM 56.36%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.64%1.4%2026-07-04 23:10
BetOpenly1.74I 57.47%NM 56.61%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.39%1.5%2026-07-04 23:05
Smarkets1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%2.5%2026-07-04 23:10