Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cleveland Guardians v Arizona Diamondbacks

2026-08-02 17:41 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cleveland Guardians (Local)

Predicción 56.24%1.78momio equitativo
EV -1.59%
Ventaja -0.906%
Kelly -2.11%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
55.26%56.30%56.27%57.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.611.691.681.7562.11%59.20%59.52%57.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Arizona Diamondbacks (Visitante)

Predicción 43.76%2.29momio equitativo
EV -0.220%
Ventaja -0.096%
Kelly -0.172%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.28

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.67%43.70%43.73%44.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.102.202.202.2847.62%45.52%45.45%43.86%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Cleveland Guardians (Local): 56.24%; Arizona Diamondbacks (Visitante): 43.76%. Para Arizona Diamondbacks (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.29. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 2.28, con un valor esperado de -0.220%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
1xBet1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%EV -1.59%E -0.906%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%EV -2.85%E -1.28%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-01 18:32
GTbets1.74I 57.47%NM 56.39%EV -2.15%E -1.23%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.61%EV -1.53%E -0.681%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-01 18:40
Hard Rock Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 56.39%EV -2.15%E -1.23%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.61%EV -1.53%E -0.681%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-01 19:30
BetOnline.ag1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -2.15%E -1.23%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -2.85%E -1.28%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-01 18:15
LowVig.ag1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -2.15%E -1.23%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -2.85%E -1.28%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-01 18:15
Pinnacle1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -2.15%E -1.23%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -2.85%E -1.28%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-01 22:35
BetUS1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -2.15%E -1.23%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -2.85%E -1.28%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-01 23:20
FanDuel1.72I 58.14%NM 57.00%EV -3.27%E -1.90%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.00%EV -0.220%E -0.096%K -0.172%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-01 18:15
Neds1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.27%E -1.90%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -5.91%E -2.75%K -5.14%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-01 21:29
Ladbrokes (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.27%E -1.90%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -5.91%E -2.75%K -5.14%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-01 21:30
Betway1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.83%E -2.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.72%E -1.69%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-01 18:14
PointsBet (AU)1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.83%E -2.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.72%E -1.69%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-01 18:19
MyBookie.ag1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.83%E -2.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.72%E -1.69%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-01 23:34
theScore Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.83%E -2.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.72%E -1.69%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-01 20:15
BetAnything1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.83%E -2.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.72%E -1.69%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-02 01:20
Caesars1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -3.83%E -2.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -4.60%E -2.11%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-01 20:45
Fliff1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.83%E -2.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.91%E -2.75%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-01 21:25
Ladbrokes (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.40%E -2.59%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.72%E -1.69%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 21:29
Coral1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.40%E -2.59%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.72%E -1.69%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 21:30
Unibet (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.40%E -2.59%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -4.60%E -2.11%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-01 20:50
DraftKings1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.40%E -2.59%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -4.60%E -2.11%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-01 20:45
PlayUp1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.40%E -2.59%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.91%E -2.75%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 02:34
Marathon Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.40%E -2.59%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.91%E -2.75%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 23:20
Tipico (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.40%E -2.59%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.10%E -3.86%K -7.36%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-01 19:45
BetMGM1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -4.96%E -2.93%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -4.60%E -2.11%K -3.90%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-01 21:29
ReBet1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.96%E -2.93%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.91%E -2.75%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-01 20:49
Unibet (NL)1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -5.52%E -3.29%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -1.53%E -0.681%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-02 01:49
Unibet (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -5.52%E -3.29%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -1.53%E -0.681%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-02 01:50
BetRivers1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -5.52%E -3.29%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -1.53%E -0.681%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-02 01:49
Svenska Spel1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -5.52%E -3.29%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -1.53%E -0.681%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-02 01:50
Bovada1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -5.52%E -3.29%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -2.41%E -1.08%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-01 21:04
Bet Right1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.52%E -3.29%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.72%E -1.69%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-01 20:49
Coolbet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.52%E -3.29%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.72%E -1.69%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-01 23:44
Betsson1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.52%E -3.29%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.60%E -2.11%K -3.90%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 23:45
NordicBet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.52%E -3.29%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.60%E -2.11%K -3.90%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 23:45
Betclic (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.52%E -3.29%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.91%E -2.75%K -5.14%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-01 20:50
Winamax (DE)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.52%E -3.29%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.91%E -2.75%K -5.14%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-01 19:05
Casumo1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -6.08%E -3.64%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -2.41%E -1.08%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 01:50
LeoVegas (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -6.08%E -3.64%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -2.41%E -1.08%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 01:49
Unibet1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -6.08%E -3.64%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -2.41%E -1.08%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 01:49
Bally Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -6.08%E -3.64%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -2.41%E -1.08%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 01:50
ATG (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -6.08%E -3.64%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -2.41%E -1.08%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 01:49
betPARX1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -6.08%E -3.64%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -2.41%E -1.08%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 01:50
888sport1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.08%E -3.64%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.72%E -1.69%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 18:20
Betr (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.08%E -3.64%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.72%E -1.69%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 18:20
888sport (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.08%E -3.64%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.72%E -1.69%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 18:20
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.08%E -3.64%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.72%E -1.69%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 18:19
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.08%E -3.64%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.72%E -1.69%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 18:39
betano_uk1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.08%E -3.64%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.91%E -2.75%K -5.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-01 18:15
Bet Victor1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.08%E -3.64%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.91%E -2.75%K -5.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-01 18:13
Virgin Bet1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -6.65%E -4.00%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -2.41%E -1.08%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-02 01:49
LiveScore Bet1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -6.65%E -4.00%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -2.41%E -1.08%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-02 01:50
TABtouch1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -6.65%E -4.00%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -2.41%E -1.08%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-02 01:49
SportsBet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.21%E -4.37%K -11.09%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.72%E -1.69%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-01 18:14
Paddy Power1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.21%E -4.37%K -11.09%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.72%E -1.69%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-01 18:12
Unibet (FR)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -7.21%E -4.37%K -11.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.10%E -3.86%K -7.36%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-01 23:45
Winamax (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 56.15%EV -7.77%E -4.74%K -12.14%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.85%EV -8.10%E -3.86%K -7.36%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-01 19:10
Grosvenor1.61I 62.11%NM 57.18%EV -9.46%E -5.87%K -15.51%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -5.91%E -2.75%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-02 01:49
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%0.6%2026-08-02 02:19
Polymarket1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-08-01 23:15
Kalshi1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-08-01 22:50
ProphetX1.74I 57.47%NM 56.50%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.50%1.7%2026-08-02 02:35
Matchbook1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%2.9%2026-08-01 22:35
Smarkets1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.54%7.3%2026-08-02 02:50