Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cleveland Guardians v Arizona Diamondbacks

Inicio: 2026-08-02 17:42 UTC

Final: Cleveland Guardians 5–0 Arizona Diamondbacks

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

65 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cleveland Guardians (Local)

Predicción 62.37%1.60momio equitativo
EV -1.45%
Ventaja -0.919%
Kelly -2.50%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.58

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
59.74%62.10%62.50%63.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.471.541.531.5868.03%65.11%65.36%63.29%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Arizona Diamondbacks (Visitante)

Predicción 37.63%2.66momio equitativo
EV +0.090%
Ventaja +0.034%
Kelly +0.055%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.66

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.75%37.90%37.50%40.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.302.532.552.6643.48%39.60%39.22%37.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Cleveland Guardians (Local): 62.37%; Arizona Diamondbacks (Visitante): 37.63%. Para Arizona Diamondbacks (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.658. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.660, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.090%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (65 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 63.18%EV -3.32%E -2.14%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.82%EV +0.090%E +0.034%K +0.055%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-02 17:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 62.80%EV -2.08%E -1.32%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 37.20%EV -0.286%E -0.108%K -0.173%G +0.000%1.4%2026-08-02 17:30
Everygame🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 63.25%EV -3.95%E -2.56%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.75%EV -0.286%E -0.108%K -0.173%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-02 17:29
GTbets🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.86%EV -2.70%E -1.73%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.14%EV -0.662%E -0.251%K -0.404%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-02 17:29
FanDuel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 62.53%EV -2.08%E -1.32%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.47%EV -1.41%E -0.540%K -0.873%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-02 17:40
BetAnything🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.98%EV -3.95%E -2.56%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.02%EV -1.41%E -0.540%K -0.873%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-02 17:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.59%EV -2.70%E -1.73%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 37.41%EV -1.79%E -0.686%K -1.11%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-02 17:29
LowVig.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.59%EV -2.70%E -1.73%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 37.41%EV -1.79%E -0.686%K -1.11%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-02 17:24
BetUS🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%EV -3.32%E -2.14%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV -2.17%E -0.834%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-02 17:29
BetRivers🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%EV -3.32%E -2.14%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV -2.17%E -0.834%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-02 17:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%EV -3.32%E -2.14%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV -2.17%E -0.834%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-02 17:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.57%E -2.99%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.17%E -0.834%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-02 17:25
ReBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.57%E -2.99%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.17%E -0.834%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-02 17:34
1xBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 62.02%EV -1.45%E -0.919%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.98%EV -2.92%E -1.13%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-02 17:26
MyBookie.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -4.57%E -2.99%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -2.92%E -1.13%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-02 17:40
Caesars🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -4.57%E -2.99%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -2.92%E -1.13%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-02 17:23
DraftKings🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.84%EV -5.19%E -3.42%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.16%EV -3.30%E -1.28%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 17:30
theScore Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.95%E -2.56%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.05%E -1.59%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-02 17:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.95%E -2.56%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.05%E -1.59%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-02 17:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.95%E -2.56%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.05%E -1.59%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-02 17:30
Bovada🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.57%E -2.99%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.05%E -1.59%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 17:29
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.57%E -2.99%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.05%E -1.59%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 17:25
Casumo🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.57%E -2.99%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.05%E -1.59%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 17:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.57%E -2.99%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.05%E -1.59%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 17:29
Unibet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.57%E -2.99%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.05%E -1.59%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 17:30
Bally Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.57%E -2.99%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.05%E -1.59%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 17:29
ATG (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.57%E -2.99%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.05%E -1.59%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 17:29
betPARX🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.57%E -2.99%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.05%E -1.59%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 17:30
LeoVegas🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.57%E -2.99%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.05%E -1.59%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 17:34
Fanatics🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.57%E -2.99%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.05%E -1.59%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 17:29
Virgin Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -5.19%E -3.42%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.05%E -1.59%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-02 17:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -5.19%E -3.42%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.05%E -1.59%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-02 17:30
TABtouch🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.82%E -3.85%K -11.41%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.05%E -1.59%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 17:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.44%E -4.29%K -12.88%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.05%E -1.59%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-02 17:23
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.44%E -4.29%K -12.88%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.05%E -1.59%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-02 17:39
SportsBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.47%EV -5.19%E -3.42%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.53%EV -4.80%E -1.90%K -3.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 17:40
Coolbet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -4.57%E -2.99%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -5.18%E -2.05%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-02 17:39
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.32%E -2.14%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.93%E -2.37%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-02 17:39
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.32%E -2.14%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.93%E -2.37%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-02 17:34
Bet Right🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -3.95%E -2.56%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.93%E -2.37%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-02 17:30
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.57%E -2.99%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.93%E -2.37%K -3.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 17:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.57%E -2.99%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.93%E -2.37%K -3.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 17:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.57%E -2.99%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.93%E -2.37%K -3.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 17:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.57%E -2.99%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.93%E -2.37%K -3.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 17:25
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.57%E -2.99%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.93%E -2.37%K -3.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 17:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.57%E -2.99%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.93%E -2.37%K -3.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 17:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.19%E -3.42%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.93%E -2.37%K -3.95%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-02 17:29
Dabble (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.19%E -3.42%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.93%E -2.37%K -3.95%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-02 17:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -5.82%E -3.85%K -11.41%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -5.93%E -2.37%K -3.95%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-02 17:34
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.44%E -4.29%K -12.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.93%E -2.37%K -3.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-02 17:40
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.44%E -4.29%K -12.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.93%E -2.37%K -3.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-02 17:34
Betsson🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -3.95%E -2.56%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -6.68%E -2.69%K -4.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 17:34
NordicBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -3.95%E -2.56%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -6.68%E -2.69%K -4.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 17:34
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -1.45%E -0.919%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -7.81%E -3.19%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-02 17:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -2.08%E -1.32%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -7.81%E -3.19%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-02 17:40
Fliff🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -2.70%E -1.73%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -7.81%E -3.19%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-02 17:35
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.32%E -2.14%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.81%E -3.19%K -5.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 17:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.32%E -2.14%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.81%E -3.19%K -5.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 17:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.18%EV -7.07%E -4.74%K -14.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.82%EV -7.81%E -3.19%K -5.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-02 17:38
Grosvenor🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -8.31%E -5.66%K -17.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -7.81%E -3.19%K -5.39%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-02 17:29
Betway🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -2.70%E -1.73%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -9.69%E -4.04%K -6.92%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-02 17:39
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -2.08%E -1.32%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -10.45%E -4.39%K -7.57%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-02 14:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.41%EV -3.95%E -2.56%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -11.57%E -4.93%K -8.57%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-02 17:40
betano_uk🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -3.32%E -2.14%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -13.46%E -5.85%K -10.35%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-02 17:34
Bet Victor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -3.32%E -2.14%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -13.46%E -5.85%K -10.35%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-02 17:34
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
ProphetX◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.76%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.24%0.2%2026-08-02 17:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%0.5%2026-08-02 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%0.5%2026-08-02 17:40
Novig◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.23%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.77%0.7%2026-08-02 17:35
Polymarket◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68%0.9%2026-08-02 17:30
Kalshi◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68%0.9%2026-08-02 17:30
BetOpenly◎1.62I 61.73%NM 61.15%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.85%0.9%2026-08-02 17:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.23%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.77%1.1%2026-08-02 17:40
Matchbook◎1.59I 62.89%NM 61.87%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.13%1.7%2026-08-02 17:40
Smarkets◎1.56I 64.10%NM 62.68%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.32%2.3%2026-08-02 17:30