The School of Odds

Cincinnati Reds v Chicago Cubs

2026-07-11 23:11 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Cincinnati Reds (Local)

Prediction 48.53%2.06fair odd
EV -1.97%
Edge -0.977%
Kelly -1.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.78%48.49%48.53%50.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.861.951.942.0254%51%52%50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Chicago Cubs (Visit)

Prediction 51.47%1.94fair odd
EV -1.69%
Edge -0.884%
Kelly -1.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%51.51%51.47%52.22%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.761.851.851.9157%54%54%52%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag2.02I 49.50%NM 48.34%EV -1.97%E -0.977%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.66%EV -2.72%E -1.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-10 18:55
BetOnline.ag2.02I 49.50%NM 48.34%EV -1.97%E -0.977%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.66%EV -2.72%E -1.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-10 18:54
1xBet2.01I 49.75%NM 48.72%EV -2.46%E -1.22%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.28%EV -1.69%E -0.884%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-10 18:14
Fanatics2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.94%E -1.47%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.81%E -3.17%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-10 17:52
theScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.94%E -1.47%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.81%E -3.17%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-10 18:25
FanDuel1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -3.91%E -1.98%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -4.26%E -2.29%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-10 17:45
PlayUp1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -3.91%E -1.98%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -5.81%E -3.17%K -7.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-10 18:59
Unibet (UK)1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -4.40%E -2.23%K -4.54%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -4.78%E -2.58%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 17:54
Bet Right1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.37%E -2.75%K -5.65%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.75%E -2.00%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 18:00
PointsBet (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.37%E -2.75%K -5.65%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.75%E -2.00%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 18:24
Betr (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -5.37%E -2.75%K -5.65%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.18%EV -4.26%E -2.29%K -4.96%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-10 17:59
SportsBet1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -5.85%E -3.02%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -4.26%E -2.29%K -4.96%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-10 17:44
Betclic (FR)1.94I 51.55%NM 48.68%EV -5.85%E -3.02%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.32%EV -5.29%E -2.88%K -6.30%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-10 17:47
Winamax (DE)1.94I 51.55%NM 48.68%EV -5.85%E -3.02%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.32%EV -5.29%E -2.88%K -6.30%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-10 17:54
Bet Victor1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -6.34%E -3.29%K -6.82%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -5.81%E -3.17%K -7.00%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-10 17:53
Fliff1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -7.31%E -3.83%K -8.03%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -1.69%E -0.884%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-10 17:54
888sport1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -7.31%E -3.83%K -8.03%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -4.78%E -2.58%K -5.62%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-10 17:59
888sport (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -7.31%E -3.83%K -8.03%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -4.78%E -2.58%K -5.62%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-10 18:00
Mr Green (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -7.31%E -3.83%K -8.03%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -4.78%E -2.58%K -5.62%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-10 17:59
ReBet1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.31%E -3.83%K -8.03%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.35%E -4.08%K -9.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-10 17:49
Paddy Power1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -7.80%E -4.10%K -8.66%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -2.20%E -1.16%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-10 17:44
Unibet (FR)1.87I 53.48%NM 48.63%EV -9.25%E -4.95%K -10.63%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.37%EV -8.90%E -5.03%K -11.55%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-10 17:49
Winamax (FR)1.86I 53.76%NM 48.62%EV -9.74%E -5.23%K -11.32%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.38%EV -9.41%E -5.35%K -12.38%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-10 17:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is the most recent time we recorded each book's price — on the default model, when it last changed, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.00I 50.00%NM 50.00%2.00I 50.00%NM 50.00%0.0%2026-07-10 19:10
Polymarket2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-07-10 17:45
Smarkets1.87I 53.48%NM 48.63%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.37%10.0%2026-07-10 17:50