L’École des cotes

Cincinnati Reds v Baltimore Orioles

Coup d’envoi : 2026-07-05 17:05 UTC

Score final : Cincinnati Reds 3–2 Baltimore Orioles

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

64 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Cincinnati Reds (Local)

Prévision 48.72%2.05cote équitable
EV -1.58%
Avantage -0.784%
Kelly -1.55%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.02

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
47.37%48.71%48.66%51.07%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.831.951.952.0254.64%51.35%51.28%49.50%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Baltimore Orioles (Visiteur)

Prévision 51.28%1.95cote équitable
EV -0.520%
Avantage -0.268%
Kelly -0.553%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.94

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
48.93%51.29%51.34%52.63%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.801.871.871.9455.56%53.41%53.48%51.55%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (64 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
MyBookie.ag2.02I 49.50%NM 47.67%EV -1.58%E -0.784%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 52.33%EV -5.65%E -3.07%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-05 15:48
GTbets2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -2.07%E -1.03%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -2.57%E -1.35%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-05 17:00
LowVig.ag2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -2.07%E -1.03%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -2.57%E -1.35%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-05 17:00
BetOnline.ag2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -2.07%E -1.03%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -2.57%E -1.35%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-05 17:00
BetUS2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -2.07%E -1.03%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -2.57%E -1.35%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-05 17:00
Pinnacle2.00I 50.00%NM 49.11%EV -2.56%E -1.28%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.89%EV -1.03%E -0.535%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.8%2026-07-05 17:00
BetAnything2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV -2.56%E -1.28%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -2.06%E -1.08%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-05 17:00
Everygame2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV -2.56%E -1.28%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -2.06%E -1.08%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-05 16:59
ReBet2.00I 50.00%NM 48.32%EV -2.56%E -1.28%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.68%EV -4.11%E -2.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-05 15:45
TAB2.00I 50.00%NM 48.32%EV -2.56%E -1.28%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.68%EV -4.11%E -2.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-05 17:00
Coral2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -2.56%E -1.28%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -5.13%E -2.78%K -6.04%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-05 16:40
Fanatics2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.56%E -1.28%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.16%E -3.37%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-05 16:35
theScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.56%E -1.28%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.16%E -3.37%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-05 15:40
Dabble (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -2.56%E -1.28%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -6.67%E -3.67%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-05 16:59
888sport2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.56%E -1.28%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.70%E -4.28%K -9.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-05 16:45
Fliff2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.56%E -1.28%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.70%E -4.28%K -9.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-05 17:00
888sport (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.56%E -1.28%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.70%E -4.28%K -9.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-05 16:40
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.56%E -1.28%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.70%E -4.28%K -9.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-05 16:40
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.56%E -1.28%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.70%E -4.28%K -9.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-05 16:10
1xBet1.99I 50.25%NM 49.23%EV -3.04%E -1.53%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.77%EV -1.03%E -0.535%K -1.11%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-05 17:00
Unibet (UK)1.98I 50.51%NM 48.57%EV -3.53%E -1.78%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.43%EV -4.11%E -2.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-05 15:44
DraftKings1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -3.53%E -1.78%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -5.13%E -2.78%K -6.04%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-05 16:05
Bet Right1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -4.02%E -2.04%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -5.13%E -2.78%K -6.04%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 16:45
Betr (AU)1.97I 50.76%NM 48.29%EV -4.02%E -2.04%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.71%EV -5.65%E -3.07%K -6.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 16:45
Tipico (DE)1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -4.02%E -2.04%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -7.70%E -4.28%K -9.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-05 15:45
FanDuel1.96I 51.02%NM 49.09%EV -4.51%E -2.30%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.91%EV -3.08%E -1.63%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-05 15:40
Coolbet1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -4.51%E -2.30%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -5.13%E -2.78%K -6.04%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 16:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 49.35%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.65%EV -2.57%E -1.35%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-05 15:59
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.11%E -2.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 15:40
Caesars1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.11%E -2.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 16:58
PointsBet (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.11%E -2.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 15:39
PlayUp1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.11%E -2.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 15:44
BetMGM1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.11%E -2.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 16:59
Hard Rock Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.11%E -2.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 15:40
Bovada1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.11%E -2.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 17:00
NordicBet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.13%E -2.78%K -6.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 15:45
Betsson1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.13%E -2.78%K -6.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 15:45
Ladbrokes (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.13%E -2.78%K -6.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 17:00
LeoVegas1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.13%E -2.78%K -6.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 16:05
BoyleSports1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.16%E -3.37%K -7.42%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-05 15:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.48%E -2.82%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.11%E -2.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 17:00
Neds1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.48%E -2.82%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.11%E -2.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 17:00
SportsBet1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -5.48%E -2.82%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -4.62%E -2.48%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 16:05
Marathon Bet1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -5.48%E -2.82%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -4.62%E -2.48%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 17:00
Unibet (FR)1.94I 51.55%NM 48.68%EV -5.48%E -2.82%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.32%EV -5.65%E -3.07%K -6.72%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-05 16:54
Winamax (DE)1.94I 51.55%NM 48.68%EV -5.48%E -2.82%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.32%EV -5.65%E -3.07%K -6.72%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-05 15:45
Winamax (FR)1.92I 52.08%NM 48.66%EV -6.45%E -3.36%K -7.02%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.34%EV -6.67%E -3.67%K -8.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-05 15:45
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.94%E -3.63%K -7.63%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.16%E -3.37%K -7.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-05 16:00
Betclic (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -7.43%E -3.91%K -8.25%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -7.70%E -4.28%K -9.62%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-05 16:39
Unibet (NL)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -8.40%E -4.47%K -9.55%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -0.520%E -0.268%K -0.553%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-05 16:55
Unibet (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -8.40%E -4.47%K -9.55%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -0.520%E -0.268%K -0.553%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-05 16:55
Svenska Spel1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -8.40%E -4.47%K -9.55%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -0.520%E -0.268%K -0.553%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-05 16:55
Casumo1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -8.40%E -4.47%K -9.55%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -1.03%E -0.535%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 16:59
LeoVegas (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -8.40%E -4.47%K -9.55%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -1.03%E -0.535%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 16:55
Unibet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -8.40%E -4.47%K -9.55%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -1.03%E -0.535%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 17:00
Bally Bet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -8.40%E -4.47%K -9.55%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -1.03%E -0.535%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 16:55
betPARX1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -8.40%E -4.47%K -9.55%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -1.03%E -0.535%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 17:00
ATG (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -8.40%E -4.47%K -9.55%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -1.03%E -0.535%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 16:55
LiveScore Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -8.89%E -4.75%K -10.22%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -1.03%E -0.535%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 16:55
BetRivers1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -8.89%E -4.75%K -10.22%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -1.03%E -0.535%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 17:00
TABtouch1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -8.89%E -4.75%K -10.22%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -1.03%E -0.535%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 16:55
Virgin Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -8.89%E -4.75%K -10.22%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -1.03%E -0.535%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 17:00
Bet Victor1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -9.87%E -5.33%K -11.61%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -5.13%E -2.78%K -6.04%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-05 16:53
Grosvenor1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -10.84%E -5.92%K -13.06%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -2.06%E -1.08%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-05 17:00
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (10)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
BetOpenly2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37%1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63%0.4%2026-07-05 17:00
Matchbook2.08I 48.08%NM 47.87%1.91I 52.36%NM 52.13%0.4%2026-07-05 17:00
ProphetX2.05I 48.78%NM 48.36%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.64%0.9%2026-07-05 17:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.06I 48.54%NM 48.11%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.89%0.9%2026-07-05 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.06I 48.54%NM 48.11%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.89%0.9%2026-07-05 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.06I 48.54%NM 48.11%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.89%0.9%2026-07-05 16:55
Kalshi2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%1.0%2026-07-05 16:20
Polymarket2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%1.1%2026-07-05 15:40
Novig2.06I 48.54%NM 47.98%1.90I 52.63%NM 52.02%1.2%2026-07-05 16:55
Smarkets2.04I 49.02%NM 47.96%1.88I 53.19%NM 52.04%2.2%2026-07-05 17:00