La escuela de los momios

Cincinnati Reds v Baltimore Orioles

Inicio: 2026-07-05 17:05 UTC

Final: Cincinnati Reds 3–2 Baltimore Orioles

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

64 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Cincinnati Reds (Local)

Predicción 48.72%2.05momio equitativo
EV -1.58%
Ventaja -0.784%
Kelly -1.55%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.02

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.37%48.71%48.66%51.07%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.831.951.952.0254.64%51.35%51.28%49.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Baltimore Orioles (Visitante)

Predicción 51.28%1.95momio equitativo
EV -0.520%
Ventaja -0.268%
Kelly -0.553%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.94

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.93%51.29%51.34%52.63%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.801.871.871.9455.56%53.41%53.48%51.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (64 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
MyBookie.ag2.02I 49.50%NM 47.67%EV -1.58%E -0.784%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 52.33%EV -5.65%E -3.07%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-05 15:48
GTbets2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -2.07%E -1.03%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -2.57%E -1.35%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-05 17:00
LowVig.ag2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -2.07%E -1.03%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -2.57%E -1.35%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-05 17:00
BetOnline.ag2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -2.07%E -1.03%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -2.57%E -1.35%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-05 17:00
BetUS2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -2.07%E -1.03%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -2.57%E -1.35%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-05 17:00
Pinnacle2.00I 50.00%NM 49.11%EV -2.56%E -1.28%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.89%EV -1.03%E -0.535%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.8%2026-07-05 17:00
BetAnything2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV -2.56%E -1.28%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -2.06%E -1.08%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-05 17:00
Everygame2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV -2.56%E -1.28%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -2.06%E -1.08%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-05 16:59
ReBet2.00I 50.00%NM 48.32%EV -2.56%E -1.28%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.68%EV -4.11%E -2.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-05 15:45
TAB2.00I 50.00%NM 48.32%EV -2.56%E -1.28%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.68%EV -4.11%E -2.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-05 17:00
Coral2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -2.56%E -1.28%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -5.13%E -2.78%K -6.04%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-05 16:40
Fanatics2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.56%E -1.28%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.16%E -3.37%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-05 16:35
theScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.56%E -1.28%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.16%E -3.37%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-05 15:40
Dabble (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -2.56%E -1.28%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -6.67%E -3.67%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-05 16:59
888sport2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.56%E -1.28%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.70%E -4.28%K -9.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-05 16:45
Fliff2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.56%E -1.28%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.70%E -4.28%K -9.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-05 17:00
888sport (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.56%E -1.28%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.70%E -4.28%K -9.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-05 16:40
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.56%E -1.28%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.70%E -4.28%K -9.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-05 16:40
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.56%E -1.28%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.70%E -4.28%K -9.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-05 16:10
1xBet1.99I 50.25%NM 49.23%EV -3.04%E -1.53%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.77%EV -1.03%E -0.535%K -1.11%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-05 17:00
Unibet (UK)1.98I 50.51%NM 48.57%EV -3.53%E -1.78%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.43%EV -4.11%E -2.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-05 15:44
DraftKings1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -3.53%E -1.78%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -5.13%E -2.78%K -6.04%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-05 16:05
Bet Right1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -4.02%E -2.04%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -5.13%E -2.78%K -6.04%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 16:45
Betr (AU)1.97I 50.76%NM 48.29%EV -4.02%E -2.04%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.71%EV -5.65%E -3.07%K -6.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 16:45
Tipico (DE)1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -4.02%E -2.04%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -7.70%E -4.28%K -9.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-05 15:45
FanDuel1.96I 51.02%NM 49.09%EV -4.51%E -2.30%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.91%EV -3.08%E -1.63%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-05 15:40
Coolbet1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -4.51%E -2.30%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -5.13%E -2.78%K -6.04%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 16:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 49.35%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.65%EV -2.57%E -1.35%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-05 15:59
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.11%E -2.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 15:40
Caesars1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.11%E -2.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 16:58
PointsBet (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.11%E -2.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 15:39
PlayUp1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.11%E -2.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 15:44
BetMGM1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.11%E -2.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 16:59
Hard Rock Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.11%E -2.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 15:40
Bovada1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.11%E -2.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 17:00
NordicBet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.13%E -2.78%K -6.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 15:45
Betsson1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.13%E -2.78%K -6.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 15:45
Ladbrokes (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.13%E -2.78%K -6.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 17:00
LeoVegas1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.13%E -2.78%K -6.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 16:05
BoyleSports1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.16%E -3.37%K -7.42%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-05 15:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.48%E -2.82%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.11%E -2.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 17:00
Neds1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.48%E -2.82%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.11%E -2.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 17:00
SportsBet1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -5.48%E -2.82%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -4.62%E -2.48%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 16:05
Marathon Bet1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -5.48%E -2.82%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -4.62%E -2.48%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 17:00
Unibet (FR)1.94I 51.55%NM 48.68%EV -5.48%E -2.82%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.32%EV -5.65%E -3.07%K -6.72%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-05 16:54
Winamax (DE)1.94I 51.55%NM 48.68%EV -5.48%E -2.82%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.32%EV -5.65%E -3.07%K -6.72%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-05 15:45
Winamax (FR)1.92I 52.08%NM 48.66%EV -6.45%E -3.36%K -7.02%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.34%EV -6.67%E -3.67%K -8.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-05 15:45
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.94%E -3.63%K -7.63%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.16%E -3.37%K -7.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-05 16:00
Betclic (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -7.43%E -3.91%K -8.25%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -7.70%E -4.28%K -9.62%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-05 16:39
Unibet (NL)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -8.40%E -4.47%K -9.55%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -0.520%E -0.268%K -0.553%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-05 16:55
Unibet (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -8.40%E -4.47%K -9.55%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -0.520%E -0.268%K -0.553%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-05 16:55
Svenska Spel1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -8.40%E -4.47%K -9.55%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -0.520%E -0.268%K -0.553%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-05 16:55
Casumo1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -8.40%E -4.47%K -9.55%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -1.03%E -0.535%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 16:59
LeoVegas (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -8.40%E -4.47%K -9.55%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -1.03%E -0.535%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 16:55
Unibet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -8.40%E -4.47%K -9.55%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -1.03%E -0.535%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 17:00
Bally Bet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -8.40%E -4.47%K -9.55%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -1.03%E -0.535%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 16:55
betPARX1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -8.40%E -4.47%K -9.55%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -1.03%E -0.535%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 17:00
ATG (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -8.40%E -4.47%K -9.55%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -1.03%E -0.535%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 16:55
LiveScore Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -8.89%E -4.75%K -10.22%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -1.03%E -0.535%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 16:55
BetRivers1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -8.89%E -4.75%K -10.22%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -1.03%E -0.535%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 17:00
TABtouch1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -8.89%E -4.75%K -10.22%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -1.03%E -0.535%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 16:55
Virgin Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -8.89%E -4.75%K -10.22%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -1.03%E -0.535%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 17:00
Bet Victor1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -9.87%E -5.33%K -11.61%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -5.13%E -2.78%K -6.04%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-05 16:53
Grosvenor1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -10.84%E -5.92%K -13.06%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -2.06%E -1.08%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-05 17:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
BetOpenly2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37%1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63%0.4%2026-07-05 17:00
Matchbook2.08I 48.08%NM 47.87%1.91I 52.36%NM 52.13%0.4%2026-07-05 17:00
ProphetX2.05I 48.78%NM 48.36%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.64%0.9%2026-07-05 17:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.06I 48.54%NM 48.11%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.89%0.9%2026-07-05 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.06I 48.54%NM 48.11%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.89%0.9%2026-07-05 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.06I 48.54%NM 48.11%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.89%0.9%2026-07-05 16:55
Kalshi2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%1.0%2026-07-05 16:20
Polymarket2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%1.1%2026-07-05 15:40
Novig2.06I 48.54%NM 47.98%1.90I 52.63%NM 52.02%1.2%2026-07-05 16:55
Smarkets2.04I 49.02%NM 47.96%1.88I 53.19%NM 52.04%2.2%2026-07-05 17:00