Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Chicago White Sox v Cleveland Guardians

2026-08-07 23:41 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

45 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Chicago White Sox (Local)

Predicción 46.69%2.14momio equitativo
EV -1.48%
Ventaja -0.704%
Kelly -1.34%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.11

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
45.45%46.63%46.70%47.66%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.962.042.052.1151.02%48.97%48.78%47.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Cleveland Guardians (Visitante)

Predicción 53.31%1.88momio equitativo
EV -2.44%
Ventaja -1.33%
Kelly -2.94%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.83

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.34%53.37%53.30%54.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.731.791.801.8357.80%55.85%55.56%54.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Chicago White Sox (Local): 46.69%; Cleveland Guardians (Visitante): 53.31%. Para Chicago White Sox (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.14. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 2.11, con un valor esperado de -1.48%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (45 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 46.17%EV -1.48%E -0.704%K -1.34%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.83%EV -3.51%E -1.94%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-07 00:40
1xBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -1.95%E -0.929%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -2.44%E -1.33%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-07 01:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -1.95%E -0.929%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -2.44%E -1.33%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-06 23:35
Caesars🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -1.95%E -0.929%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -2.44%E -1.33%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-06 23:35
GTbets🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -1.95%E -0.929%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -2.44%E -1.33%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-06 23:50
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -1.95%E -0.929%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.64%E -3.19%K -7.33%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-06 23:35
Dabble (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -1.95%E -0.929%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -6.71%E -3.83%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-07 02:30
LowVig.ag🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 46.68%EV -2.42%E -1.16%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.32%EV -2.44%E -1.33%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-06 23:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 46.68%EV -2.42%E -1.16%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.32%EV -2.44%E -1.33%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-06 23:35
BetUS🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 46.68%EV -2.42%E -1.16%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.32%EV -2.44%E -1.33%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-06 23:44
FanDuel🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.77%EV -3.82%E -1.85%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.23%EV -3.51%E -1.94%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-07 00:00
MyBookie.ag🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.63%EV -3.82%E -1.85%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.37%EV -4.04%E -2.25%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-07 01:05
Bovada🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.49%EV -3.82%E -1.85%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.51%EV -4.57%E -2.56%K -5.79%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-07 00:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.29%E -2.09%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.04%E -2.25%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-06 23:35
TAB🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.29%E -2.09%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.04%E -2.25%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-06 23:40
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.29%E -2.09%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.04%E -2.25%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-06 23:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.29%E -2.09%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.04%E -2.25%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-07 00:55
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.29%E -2.09%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.04%E -2.25%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-07 00:55
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.29%E -2.09%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.04%E -2.25%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-07 00:54
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.29%E -2.09%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.64%E -3.19%K -7.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 00:30
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.29%E -2.09%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.71%E -3.83%K -8.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 23:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.29%E -2.09%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.71%E -3.83%K -8.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 23:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.29%E -2.09%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.71%E -3.83%K -8.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 23:40
Bet Right🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87%EV -4.75%E -2.33%K -4.57%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%EV -4.04%E -2.25%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-07 00:00
DraftKings🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -4.75%E -2.33%K -4.57%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -4.57%E -2.56%K -5.79%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-07 00:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.75%E -2.33%K -4.57%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.11%E -2.87%K -6.55%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-07 01:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.75%E -2.33%K -4.57%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.11%E -2.87%K -6.55%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-07 01:20
SportsBet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -5.22%E -2.57%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -5.11%E -2.87%K -6.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 00:00
NordicBet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -5.22%E -2.57%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -5.11%E -2.87%K -6.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 01:15
Betsson🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -5.22%E -2.57%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -5.11%E -2.87%K -6.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 01:15
Neds🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.69%E -2.82%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.04%E -2.25%K -5.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-07 00:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.69%E -2.82%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.04%E -2.25%K -5.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-07 00:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -5.69%E -2.82%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -5.64%E -3.19%K -7.33%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-07 00:59
BetAnything🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.66%EV -6.15%E -3.06%K -6.09%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.34%EV -2.44%E -1.33%K -2.94%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-07 02:10
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.62%E -3.31%K -6.62%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.04%E -2.25%K -5.05%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-07 00:00
Fliff🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.62%E -3.31%K -6.62%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.04%E -2.25%K -5.05%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-06 23:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.62%E -3.31%K -6.62%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.04%E -2.25%K -5.05%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-07 00:00
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.62%E -3.31%K -6.62%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.04%E -2.25%K -5.05%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-06 21:50
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.62%E -3.31%K -6.62%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.04%E -2.25%K -5.05%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-07 00:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -6.62%E -3.31%K -6.62%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.11%E -2.87%K -6.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-07 00:35
ReBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.62%E -3.31%K -6.62%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.64%E -3.19%K -7.33%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-07 00:35
Bet Victor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.62%E -3.31%K -6.62%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.71%E -3.83%K -8.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-07 00:35
betano_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.62%E -3.31%K -6.62%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.71%E -3.83%K -8.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-07 00:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.03%EV -8.49%E -4.33%K -8.84%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.97%EV -7.24%E -4.16%K -9.78%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-07 00:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.88%EV -8.49%E -4.33%K -8.84%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.12%EV -7.77%E -4.49%K -10.65%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-07 01:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
ProphetX2.16I 46.30%NM 46.00%1.84I 54.35%NM 54.00%0.6%2026-08-07 02:50
Novig2.17I 46.08%NM 45.75%1.83I 54.64%NM 54.25%0.7%2026-08-07 01:41
Polymarket2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%1.0%2026-08-07 00:20
Kalshi2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%1.0%2026-08-07 01:00
Matchbook2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%5.2%2026-08-07 01:10
Smarkets1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%9.1%2026-08-07 02:50