L’École des cotes

Chicago Cubs v Toronto Blue Jays

Coup d’envoi : 2026-06-19 18:21 UTC

Score final : Chicago Cubs 16–2 Toronto Blue Jays

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

64 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Chicago Cubs (Local)

Prévision 53.11%1.88cote équitable
EV -1.75%
Avantage -0.946%
Kelly -2.06%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.85

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
51.95%53.39%53.05%57.89%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.601.781.801.8562.50%56.14%55.56%54.05%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Toronto Blue Jays (Visiteur)

Prévision 46.89%2.13cote équitable
EV +3.16%
Avantage +1.44%
Kelly +2.63%
Croissance +0.083%

avec la cote maximale 2.20

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
42.11%46.61%46.95%48.05%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.922.032.002.2052.08%49.36%50.00%45.45%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (64 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
Tipico (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -15.03%E -9.39%K -25.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV +3.16%E +1.44%K +2.63%G +0.083%8.0%2026-06-19 18:20
Everygame1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV +0.817%E +0.380%K +0.711%G +0.006%2.1%2026-06-19 18:19
BetMGM1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -10.25%E -6.06%K -14.85%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV +0.817%E +0.380%K +0.711%G +0.006%5.7%2026-06-19 18:20
GTbets1.81I 55.25%NM 54.06%EV -3.87%E -2.14%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.94%EV -0.121%E -0.057%K -0.107%G +0.000%2.2%2026-06-19 18:19
BetAnything1.81I 55.25%NM 53.94%EV -3.87%E -2.14%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.06%EV -0.590%E -0.278%K -0.526%G +0.000%2.4%2026-06-19 18:20
BetUS1.81I 55.25%NM 53.94%EV -3.87%E -2.14%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.06%EV -0.590%E -0.278%K -0.526%G +0.000%2.4%2026-06-19 18:20
Pinnacle1.83I 54.64%NM 53.55%EV -2.81%E -1.54%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.45%EV -1.06%E -0.502%K -0.954%G +0.000%2.0%2026-06-19 18:10
LowVig.ag1.82I 54.95%NM 53.69%EV -3.34%E -1.84%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.31%EV -1.06%E -0.502%K -0.954%G +0.000%2.3%2026-06-19 18:19
BetOnline.ag1.82I 54.95%NM 53.69%EV -3.34%E -1.84%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.31%EV -1.06%E -0.502%K -0.954%G +0.000%2.3%2026-06-19 18:20
1xBet1.85I 54.05%NM 53.05%EV -1.75%E -0.946%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.95%EV -2.00%E -0.955%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.9%2026-06-19 17:58
Bovada1.76I 56.82%NM 54.29%EV -6.53%E -3.71%K -8.59%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.71%EV -2.00%E -0.955%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-19 18:20
Unibet (NL)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -7.59%E -4.36%K -10.26%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -2.47%E -1.19%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-19 18:20
Casumo1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -7.59%E -4.36%K -10.26%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -2.47%E -1.19%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-19 18:20
Svenska Spel1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -7.59%E -4.36%K -10.26%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -2.47%E -1.19%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-19 18:20
betPARX1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -7.59%E -4.36%K -10.26%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -2.47%E -1.19%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-19 18:20
FanDuel1.81I 55.25%NM 53.23%EV -3.87%E -2.14%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.77%EV -3.40%E -1.65%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.8%2026-06-19 18:10
MyBookie.ag1.81I 55.25%NM 53.11%EV -3.87%E -2.14%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.89%EV -3.87%E -1.89%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-19 16:39
theScore Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.87%E -1.89%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-19 09:30
Hard Rock Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.87%E -1.89%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-19 18:00
Coral1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.87%E -1.89%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-19 16:20
Ladbrokes (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.87%E -1.89%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-19 16:20
Dabble (AU)1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -5.47%E -3.07%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -3.87%E -1.89%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-19 18:00
Neds1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -5.47%E -3.07%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -3.87%E -1.89%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-19 16:20
Ladbrokes (AU)1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -5.47%E -3.07%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -3.87%E -1.89%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-19 16:20
Fliff1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.59%E -4.36%K -10.26%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -3.87%E -1.89%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-19 18:20
Caesars1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.59%E -4.36%K -10.26%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -3.87%E -1.89%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-19 18:20
Bet Right1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87%EV -4.34%E -2.13%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-19 15:50
Marathon Bet1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.47%E -3.07%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.34%E -2.13%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-19 18:19
SportsBet1.79I 55.87%NM 53.14%EV -4.94%E -2.76%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.86%EV -4.81%E -2.37%K -4.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-19 18:10
DraftKings1.75I 57.14%NM 53.70%EV -7.06%E -4.03%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.30%EV -4.81%E -2.37%K -4.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-19 18:20
Coolbet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.28%E -2.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-19 15:50
TAB1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -1.75%E -0.946%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-19 17:09
ReBet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.81%E -1.54%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-19 16:50
Unibet (UK)1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.34%E -1.84%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-19 18:20
Betway1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-19 18:20
888sport1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-19 03:50
Betr (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-19 11:00
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-19 01:50
Unibet (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-19 18:20
Unibet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-19 18:20
ATG (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-19 18:20
BoyleSports1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-19 16:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-19 18:20
PointsBet (AU)1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.00%E -3.39%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-19 18:20
Fanatics1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.00%E -3.39%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-19 18:20
Betsson1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -7.59%E -4.36%K -10.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-19 18:20
Mr Green (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -9.72%E -5.72%K -13.88%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-19 18:20
888sport (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -9.72%E -5.72%K -13.88%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-19 18:20
PlayUp1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -2.81%E -1.54%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -7.15%E -3.61%K -7.30%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-19 17:10
Winamax (DE)1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -3.34%E -1.84%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -7.15%E -3.61%K -7.30%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-19 18:20
Unibet (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -7.15%E -3.61%K -7.30%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-19 18:10
Grosvenor1.79I 55.87%NM 52.27%EV -4.94%E -2.76%K -6.25%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.73%EV -8.09%E -4.13%K -8.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-19 18:20
TABtouch1.79I 55.87%NM 52.27%EV -4.94%E -2.76%K -6.25%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.73%EV -8.09%E -4.13%K -8.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-19 18:20
LiveScore Bet1.78I 56.18%NM 52.41%EV -5.47%E -3.07%K -7.01%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.59%EV -8.09%E -4.13%K -8.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-19 18:20
Virgin Bet1.78I 56.18%NM 52.41%EV -5.47%E -3.07%K -7.01%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.59%EV -8.09%E -4.13%K -8.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-19 18:20
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.56%E -4.39%K -9.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-19 16:00
Bet Victor1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.56%E -4.39%K -9.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-19 18:20
NordicBet1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%EV -5.47%E -3.07%K -7.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.72%EV -8.56%E -4.39%K -9.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-19 18:20
Bally Bet1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%EV -5.47%E -3.07%K -7.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.72%EV -8.56%E -4.39%K -9.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-19 18:20
Betclic (FR)1.77I 56.50%NM 52.29%EV -6.00%E -3.39%K -7.79%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.71%EV -9.03%E -4.65%K -9.61%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-19 17:50
BetRivers1.77I 56.50%NM 52.29%EV -6.00%E -3.39%K -7.79%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.71%EV -9.03%E -4.65%K -9.61%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-19 18:20
LeoVegas1.76I 56.82%NM 52.30%EV -6.53%E -3.71%K -8.59%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.70%EV -9.50%E -4.92%K -10.21%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-19 18:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.45%EV -7.06%E -4.03%K -9.41%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -9.50%E -4.92%K -10.21%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-19 18:20
Winamax (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -9.72%E -5.72%K -13.88%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.96%EV -9.97%E -5.19%K -10.83%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-19 18:20
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (10)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Polymarket1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-06-19 17:00
Kalshi1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-06-19 18:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.84I 54.35%NM 53.77%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.23%1.1%2026-06-19 18:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.84I 54.35%NM 53.77%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.23%1.1%2026-06-19 18:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.84I 54.35%NM 53.77%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.23%1.1%2026-06-19 18:20
Smarkets1.83I 54.64%NM 53.90%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.10%1.4%2026-06-19 18:20
ProphetX1.84I 54.35%NM 53.54%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.46%1.5%2026-06-19 18:20
BetOpenly1.85I 54.05%NM 52.56%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.44%2.8%2026-06-19 18:19
Novig1.80I 55.56%NM 53.96%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.04%2.9%2026-06-19 18:20
Matchbook1.66I 60.24%NM 54.64%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.36%10.2%2026-06-19 18:20