La escuela de los momios

Chicago Cubs v Toronto Blue Jays

Inicio: 2026-06-19 18:21 UTC

Final: Chicago Cubs 16–2 Toronto Blue Jays

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

64 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Chicago Cubs (Local)

Predicción 53.11%1.88momio equitativo
EV -1.75%
Ventaja -0.946%
Kelly -2.06%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.95%53.39%53.05%57.89%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.601.781.801.8562.50%56.14%55.56%54.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Toronto Blue Jays (Visitante)

Predicción 46.89%2.13momio equitativo
EV +3.16%
Ventaja +1.44%
Kelly +2.63%
Crecimiento +0.083%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.11%46.61%46.95%48.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.922.032.002.2052.08%49.36%50.00%45.45%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (64 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Tipico (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -15.03%E -9.39%K -25.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV +3.16%E +1.44%K +2.63%G +0.083%8.0%2026-06-19 18:20
Everygame1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV +0.817%E +0.380%K +0.711%G +0.006%2.1%2026-06-19 18:19
BetMGM1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -10.25%E -6.06%K -14.85%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV +0.817%E +0.380%K +0.711%G +0.006%5.7%2026-06-19 18:20
GTbets1.81I 55.25%NM 54.06%EV -3.87%E -2.14%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.94%EV -0.121%E -0.057%K -0.107%G +0.000%2.2%2026-06-19 18:19
BetAnything1.81I 55.25%NM 53.94%EV -3.87%E -2.14%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.06%EV -0.590%E -0.278%K -0.526%G +0.000%2.4%2026-06-19 18:20
BetUS1.81I 55.25%NM 53.94%EV -3.87%E -2.14%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.06%EV -0.590%E -0.278%K -0.526%G +0.000%2.4%2026-06-19 18:20
Pinnacle1.83I 54.64%NM 53.55%EV -2.81%E -1.54%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.45%EV -1.06%E -0.502%K -0.954%G +0.000%2.0%2026-06-19 18:10
LowVig.ag1.82I 54.95%NM 53.69%EV -3.34%E -1.84%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.31%EV -1.06%E -0.502%K -0.954%G +0.000%2.3%2026-06-19 18:19
BetOnline.ag1.82I 54.95%NM 53.69%EV -3.34%E -1.84%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.31%EV -1.06%E -0.502%K -0.954%G +0.000%2.3%2026-06-19 18:20
1xBet1.85I 54.05%NM 53.05%EV -1.75%E -0.946%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.95%EV -2.00%E -0.955%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.9%2026-06-19 17:58
Bovada1.76I 56.82%NM 54.29%EV -6.53%E -3.71%K -8.59%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.71%EV -2.00%E -0.955%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-19 18:20
Unibet (NL)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -7.59%E -4.36%K -10.26%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -2.47%E -1.19%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-19 18:20
Casumo1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -7.59%E -4.36%K -10.26%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -2.47%E -1.19%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-19 18:20
Svenska Spel1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -7.59%E -4.36%K -10.26%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -2.47%E -1.19%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-19 18:20
betPARX1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -7.59%E -4.36%K -10.26%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -2.47%E -1.19%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-19 18:20
FanDuel1.81I 55.25%NM 53.23%EV -3.87%E -2.14%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.77%EV -3.40%E -1.65%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.8%2026-06-19 18:10
MyBookie.ag1.81I 55.25%NM 53.11%EV -3.87%E -2.14%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.89%EV -3.87%E -1.89%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-19 16:39
theScore Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.87%E -1.89%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-19 09:30
Hard Rock Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.87%E -1.89%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-19 18:00
Coral1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.87%E -1.89%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-19 16:20
Ladbrokes (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.87%E -1.89%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-19 16:20
Dabble (AU)1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -5.47%E -3.07%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -3.87%E -1.89%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-19 18:00
Neds1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -5.47%E -3.07%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -3.87%E -1.89%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-19 16:20
Ladbrokes (AU)1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -5.47%E -3.07%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -3.87%E -1.89%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-19 16:20
Fliff1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.59%E -4.36%K -10.26%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -3.87%E -1.89%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-19 18:20
Caesars1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.59%E -4.36%K -10.26%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -3.87%E -1.89%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-19 18:20
Bet Right1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87%EV -4.34%E -2.13%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-19 15:50
Marathon Bet1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.47%E -3.07%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.34%E -2.13%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-19 18:19
SportsBet1.79I 55.87%NM 53.14%EV -4.94%E -2.76%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.86%EV -4.81%E -2.37%K -4.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-19 18:10
DraftKings1.75I 57.14%NM 53.70%EV -7.06%E -4.03%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.30%EV -4.81%E -2.37%K -4.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-19 18:20
Coolbet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.28%E -2.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-19 15:50
TAB1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -1.75%E -0.946%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-19 17:09
ReBet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.81%E -1.54%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-19 16:50
Unibet (UK)1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.34%E -1.84%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-19 18:20
Betway1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-19 18:20
888sport1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-19 03:50
Betr (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-19 11:00
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-19 01:50
Unibet (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-19 18:20
Unibet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-19 18:20
ATG (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-19 18:20
BoyleSports1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-19 16:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-19 18:20
PointsBet (AU)1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.00%E -3.39%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-19 18:20
Fanatics1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.00%E -3.39%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-19 18:20
Betsson1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -7.59%E -4.36%K -10.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-19 18:20
Mr Green (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -9.72%E -5.72%K -13.88%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-19 18:20
888sport (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -9.72%E -5.72%K -13.88%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-19 18:20
PlayUp1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -2.81%E -1.54%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -7.15%E -3.61%K -7.30%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-19 17:10
Winamax (DE)1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -3.34%E -1.84%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -7.15%E -3.61%K -7.30%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-19 18:20
Unibet (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -7.15%E -3.61%K -7.30%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-19 18:10
Grosvenor1.79I 55.87%NM 52.27%EV -4.94%E -2.76%K -6.25%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.73%EV -8.09%E -4.13%K -8.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-19 18:20
TABtouch1.79I 55.87%NM 52.27%EV -4.94%E -2.76%K -6.25%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.73%EV -8.09%E -4.13%K -8.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-19 18:20
LiveScore Bet1.78I 56.18%NM 52.41%EV -5.47%E -3.07%K -7.01%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.59%EV -8.09%E -4.13%K -8.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-19 18:20
Virgin Bet1.78I 56.18%NM 52.41%EV -5.47%E -3.07%K -7.01%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.59%EV -8.09%E -4.13%K -8.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-19 18:20
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.56%E -4.39%K -9.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-19 16:00
Bet Victor1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.41%E -2.45%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.56%E -4.39%K -9.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-19 18:20
NordicBet1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%EV -5.47%E -3.07%K -7.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.72%EV -8.56%E -4.39%K -9.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-19 18:20
Bally Bet1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%EV -5.47%E -3.07%K -7.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.72%EV -8.56%E -4.39%K -9.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-19 18:20
Betclic (FR)1.77I 56.50%NM 52.29%EV -6.00%E -3.39%K -7.79%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.71%EV -9.03%E -4.65%K -9.61%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-19 17:50
BetRivers1.77I 56.50%NM 52.29%EV -6.00%E -3.39%K -7.79%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.71%EV -9.03%E -4.65%K -9.61%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-19 18:20
LeoVegas1.76I 56.82%NM 52.30%EV -6.53%E -3.71%K -8.59%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.70%EV -9.50%E -4.92%K -10.21%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-19 18:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.45%EV -7.06%E -4.03%K -9.41%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -9.50%E -4.92%K -10.21%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-19 18:20
Winamax (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -9.72%E -5.72%K -13.88%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.96%EV -9.97%E -5.19%K -10.83%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-19 18:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Polymarket1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-06-19 17:00
Kalshi1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-06-19 18:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.84I 54.35%NM 53.77%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.23%1.1%2026-06-19 18:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.84I 54.35%NM 53.77%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.23%1.1%2026-06-19 18:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.84I 54.35%NM 53.77%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.23%1.1%2026-06-19 18:20
Smarkets1.83I 54.64%NM 53.90%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.10%1.4%2026-06-19 18:20
ProphetX1.84I 54.35%NM 53.54%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.46%1.5%2026-06-19 18:20
BetOpenly1.85I 54.05%NM 52.56%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.44%2.8%2026-06-19 18:19
Novig1.80I 55.56%NM 53.96%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.04%2.9%2026-06-19 18:20
Matchbook1.66I 60.24%NM 54.64%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.36%10.2%2026-06-19 18:20