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Chicago Cubs v San Diego Padres
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Chicago Cubs (Local)
Predicción 53.78%1.86momio equitativo
EV +0.565%
Ventaja +0.302%
Kelly +0.649%
Crecimiento +0.004%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.87
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.05%53.92%54.00%58.40%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.611.771.791.8762.11%56.44%56.02%53.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
San Diego Padres (Visitante)
Predicción 46.22%2.16momio equitativo
EV +4.46%
Ventaja +1.97%
Kelly +3.54%
Crecimiento +0.158%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.26
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.60%46.08%46.00%48.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.942.052.052.2651.55%48.88%48.78%44.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Chicago Cubs (Local): 53.78%; San Diego Padres (Visitante): 46.22%. Para San Diego Padres (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.16. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.26, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +4.46%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (62 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.40%EV -13.42%E -8.33%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 41.60%EV +4.46%E +1.97%K +3.54%G +0.158% | 6.4% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -6.43%E -3.69%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -2.01%E -0.948%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -8.04%E -4.70%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -2.01%E -0.948%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -8.04%E -4.70%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -2.01%E -0.948%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -8.04%E -4.70%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -2.01%E -0.948%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -8.04%E -4.70%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -2.01%E -0.948%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -8.04%E -4.70%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -2.01%E -0.948%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.81%E -2.72%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.93%E -1.40%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-01 16:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.04%E -4.70%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -2.93%E -1.40%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.44%EV -9.65%E -5.75%K -14.20%G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 44.56%EV -3.40%E -1.62%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -8.58%E -5.05%K -12.25%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -3.86%E -1.85%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -8.58%E -5.05%K -12.25%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -3.86%E -1.85%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 52.67%EV +0.027%E +0.014%K +0.031%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 47.33%EV -4.32%E -2.09%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.1% | 2026-07-01 18:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.81%EV -0.511%E -0.276%K -0.601%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 47.19%EV -4.32%E -2.09%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-07-01 18:19 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.81%EV -0.511%E -0.276%K -0.601%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 47.19%EV -4.32%E -2.09%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-07-01 18:19 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 52.42%EV +0.565%E +0.302%K +0.649%G +0.004% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.58%EV -4.78%E -2.32%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-07-01 18:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 52.55%EV +0.027%E +0.014%K +0.031%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.45%EV -4.78%E -2.32%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-07-01 17:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 52.55%EV +0.027%E +0.014%K +0.031%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.45%EV -4.78%E -2.32%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.69%EV -0.511%E -0.276%K -0.601%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.31%EV -4.78%E -2.32%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.69%EV -0.511%E -0.276%K -0.601%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.31%EV -4.78%E -2.32%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.23%EV -2.66%E -1.47%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.77%EV -4.78%E -2.32%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%EV -9.65%E -5.75%K -14.20%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 44.92%EV -4.78%E -2.32%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.20%E -1.78%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.24%E -2.56%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-01 14:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.20%E -1.78%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.24%E -2.56%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-01 12:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.20%E -1.78%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.24%E -2.56%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-01 12:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.20%E -1.78%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.24%E -2.56%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.20%E -1.78%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.24%E -2.56%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-01 05:29 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.20%E -1.78%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.24%E -2.56%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-01 16:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.28%E -2.40%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -5.24%E -2.56%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-01 12:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.28%E -2.40%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -5.24%E -2.56%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-01 12:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.35%E -3.04%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -5.24%E -2.56%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 18:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.89%E -3.36%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.24%E -2.56%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-01 18:19 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.89%E -3.36%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.24%E -2.56%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-01 18:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.89%E -3.36%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.24%E -2.56%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-01 18:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.43%E -3.69%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.24%E -2.56%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.96%E -4.03%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -5.24%E -2.56%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.96%E -4.03%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -5.24%E -2.56%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-01 16:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -8.04%E -4.70%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -5.24%E -2.56%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%EV -3.20%E -1.78%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87%EV -5.71%E -2.80%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-01 18:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.14%EV -3.74%E -2.09%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.86%EV -6.17%E -3.04%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -2.66%E -1.47%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -6.63%E -3.28%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-01 18:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.20%E -1.78%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.63%E -3.28%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-01 17:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.20%E -1.78%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.63%E -3.28%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-01 18:00 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.20%E -1.78%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.63%E -3.28%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-01 15:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.74%E -2.09%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -6.63%E -3.28%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-01 16:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -4.28%E -2.40%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -6.63%E -3.28%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.34%EV -1.59%E -0.867%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.66%EV -7.09%E -3.53%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-01 18:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -2.66%E -1.47%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-01 17:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.20%E -1.78%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 10:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.20%E -1.78%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.20%E -1.78%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 14:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.20%E -1.78%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -4.28%E -2.40%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -8.58%E -5.05%K -12.25%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.64%EV -10.73%E -6.46%K -16.26%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.36%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.49%EV -6.96%E -4.03%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 46.51%EV -8.02%E -4.03%K -8.10%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -3.20%E -1.78%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -8.48%E -4.28%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.08%EV -5.89%E -3.36%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.92%EV -8.48%E -4.28%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.08%EV -5.89%E -3.36%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.92%EV -8.48%E -4.28%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV +0.565%E +0.302%K +0.649%G +0.004% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -9.87%E -5.06%K -10.39%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.20%E -1.78%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.87%E -5.06%K -10.39%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-01 18:18 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.01%EV -7.50%E -4.36%K -10.42%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.99%EV -10.33%E -5.32%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (10)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.50% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.50% | 0.3% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.26% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.74% | 0.7% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 53.88% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 46.12% | 0.9% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.02% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 45.98% | 1.2% | 2026-07-01 18:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.87I 53.48%NM 52.66% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.34% | 1.6% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07% | 2.1% | 2026-07-01 17:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.87I 53.48%NM 52.17% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.83% | 2.5% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.21% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.79% | 3.3% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.03% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.97% | 4.6% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.12% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.88% | 8.8% | 2026-07-01 18:20 |