Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Chicago Cubs v New York Yankees

2026-08-02 18:21 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Chicago Cubs (Local)

Predicción 46.48%2.15momio equitativo
EV +0.406%
Ventaja +0.188%
Kelly +0.350%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.16

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
45.03%46.34%46.48%47.37%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.982.072.052.1650.51%48.38%48.78%46.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

New York Yankees (Visitante)

Predicción 53.52%1.87momio equitativo
EV -0.996%
Ventaja -0.538%
Kelly -1.17%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.63%53.66%53.52%54.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.701.771.771.8558.82%56.38%56.50%54.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Chicago Cubs (Local): 46.48%; New York Yankees (Visitante): 53.52%. Para Chicago Cubs (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.15. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.16, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +0.406%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
FanDuel2.16I 46.30%NM 45.32%EV +0.406%E +0.188%K +0.350%G +0.001%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.68%EV -4.21%E -2.35%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-01 20:35
Hard Rock Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV -0.059%E -0.027%K -0.051%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -3.67%E -2.04%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-01 19:30
BetAnything2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -0.988%E -0.464%K -0.875%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -6.35%E -3.63%K -8.46%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-02 01:20
BetRivers2.12I 47.17%NM 45.50%EV -1.45%E -0.685%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.50%EV -5.28%E -2.98%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-02 01:55
Svenska Spel2.12I 47.17%NM 45.50%EV -1.45%E -0.685%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.50%EV -5.28%E -2.98%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-02 02:04
Pinnacle2.11I 47.39%NM 46.17%EV -1.92%E -0.909%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.83%EV -3.14%E -1.73%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-02 01:25
Bovada2.11I 47.39%NM 45.34%EV -1.92%E -0.909%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.66%EV -6.35%E -3.63%K -8.46%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-01 21:04
GTbets2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -2.38%E -1.13%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -2.07%E -1.13%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-01 18:40
Unibet (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.38%E -1.13%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.28%E -2.98%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-02 01:59
Unibet (NL)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.38%E -1.13%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.28%E -2.98%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-02 01:59
Unibet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -2.38%E -1.13%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -5.81%E -3.30%K -7.65%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-02 02:00
Casumo2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -2.38%E -1.13%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -5.81%E -3.30%K -7.65%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-02 02:04
LeoVegas (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -2.38%E -1.13%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -5.81%E -3.30%K -7.65%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-02 02:00
ATG (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -2.38%E -1.13%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -5.81%E -3.30%K -7.65%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-02 02:00
betPARX2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -2.38%E -1.13%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -5.81%E -3.30%K -7.65%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-02 02:00
Bally Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -2.38%E -1.13%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -5.81%E -3.30%K -7.65%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-02 02:04
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.38%E -1.13%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.42%E -4.29%K -10.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 18:29
Tipico (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -2.38%E -1.13%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -7.95%E -4.62%K -11.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-01 22:49
1xBet2.09I 47.85%NM 46.95%EV -2.85%E -1.36%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.05%EV -0.996%E -0.538%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-01 23:29
BetOnline.ag2.09I 47.85%NM 46.68%EV -2.85%E -1.36%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.32%EV -2.07%E -1.13%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-01 18:29
LowVig.ag2.09I 47.85%NM 46.68%EV -2.85%E -1.36%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.32%EV -2.07%E -1.13%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-01 18:30
BetUS2.09I 47.85%NM 46.68%EV -2.85%E -1.36%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.32%EV -2.07%E -1.13%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-01 23:20
LiveScore Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -3.31%E -1.59%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -6.35%E -3.63%K -8.46%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 02:05
Virgin Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -3.31%E -1.59%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -6.35%E -3.63%K -8.46%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 02:00
TABtouch2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -3.31%E -1.59%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -6.35%E -3.63%K -8.46%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 02:00
SportsBet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -3.31%E -1.59%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -7.95%E -4.62%K -11.05%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-01 20:35
MyBookie.ag2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -3.78%E -1.82%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -4.21%E -2.35%K -5.33%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-01 23:34
Betway2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.71%E -2.30%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.67%E -2.04%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 20:50
PointsBet (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.71%E -2.30%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.67%E -2.04%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 20:54
theScore Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.71%E -2.30%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.67%E -2.04%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 22:34
Caesars2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.71%E -2.30%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.67%E -2.04%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 20:45
Coral2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.71%E -2.30%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.67%E -2.04%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 21:30
Ladbrokes (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.71%E -2.30%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.67%E -2.04%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 21:29
Unibet (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.71%E -2.30%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.74%E -2.66%K -6.08%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-01 20:50
Bet Right2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.71%E -2.30%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.74%E -2.66%K -6.08%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-01 20:55
Coolbet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.71%E -2.30%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.74%E -2.66%K -6.08%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-02 00:24
Fliff2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.71%E -2.30%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.28%E -2.98%K -6.85%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 19:55
ReBet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.71%E -2.30%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.28%E -2.98%K -6.85%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 20:49
PlayUp2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.71%E -2.30%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.28%E -2.98%K -6.85%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 20:49
BetMGM2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.71%E -2.30%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.28%E -2.98%K -6.85%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 21:34
Betr (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -4.71%E -2.30%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.81%E -3.30%K -7.65%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-01 20:50
Winamax (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -4.71%E -2.30%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.81%E -3.30%K -7.65%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-01 20:49
betano_uk2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.71%E -2.30%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.35%E -3.63%K -8.46%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 20:55
Bet Victor2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.71%E -2.30%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.35%E -3.63%K -8.46%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 20:48
888sport2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.71%E -2.30%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.35%E -3.63%K -8.46%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 20:55
Mr Green (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.71%E -2.30%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.35%E -3.63%K -8.46%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 20:55
888sport (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.71%E -2.30%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.35%E -3.63%K -8.46%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 20:55
DraftKings2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -5.17%E -2.54%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -4.21%E -2.35%K -5.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-01 20:45
NordicBet2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -5.64%E -2.78%K -5.47%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -4.74%E -2.66%K -6.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 00:19
Betsson2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -5.64%E -2.78%K -5.47%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -4.74%E -2.66%K -6.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 00:19
Betclic (FR)2.03I 49.26%NM 46.44%EV -5.64%E -2.78%K -5.47%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.56%EV -5.81%E -3.30%K -7.65%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-01 20:50
Neds2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.10%E -3.02%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.67%E -2.04%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 21:29
Ladbrokes (AU)2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.10%E -3.02%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.67%E -2.04%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 21:30
Marathon Bet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -6.10%E -3.02%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.21%E -2.35%K -5.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 23:20
Dabble (AU)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -6.10%E -3.02%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -4.74%E -2.66%K -6.08%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-02 02:20
Grosvenor2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%EV -6.10%E -3.02%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%EV -9.02%E -5.31%K -12.89%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-02 02:00
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.03%E -3.52%K -7.03%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.67%E -2.04%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-01 23:39
Unibet (FR)1.99I 50.25%NM 46.51%EV -7.50%E -3.77%K -7.57%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.49%EV -7.42%E -4.29%K -10.16%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-02 00:25
Winamax (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 46.49%EV -7.96%E -4.02%K -8.12%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.51%EV -7.95%E -4.62%K -11.05%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-01 20:49
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%1.0%2026-08-02 02:19
Kalshi2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%1.0%2026-08-02 00:05
Polymarket2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%1.0%2026-08-01 21:50
ProphetX2.11I 47.39%NM 46.31%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.69%2.3%2026-08-02 01:20
Matchbook2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%3.2%2026-08-02 01:15
Smarkets1.96I 51.02%NM 46.59%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.41%9.5%2026-08-02 02:45