Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Chicago Cubs v Detroit Tigers

Início: 2026-07-21 00:35 UTC

Final: Chicago Cubs 6–8 Detroit Tigers

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

48 casas de apostas (14 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Chicago Cubs (Local)

Previsão 51.07%1.96odd justa
EV -1.44%
Vantagem -0.746%
Kelly -1.55%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.93

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
50.00%51.08%51.05%52.22%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.761.871.871.9356.82%53.56%53.48%51.81%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Detroit Tigers (Visitante)

Previsão 48.93%2.04odd justa
EV -2.14%
Vantagem -1.07%
Kelly -2.14%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
47.78%48.92%48.95%50.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.881.951.952.0053.19%51.39%51.28%50.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Chicago Cubs (Local): 51.07%; Detroit Tigers (Visitante): 48.93%. Para Chicago Cubs (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 1.96. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 1.93, com valor esperado de -1.44%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (48 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
BetUS🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.64%EV -1.44%E -0.746%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.36%EV -3.11%E -1.57%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-21 00:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.51%EV -1.44%E -0.746%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.49%EV -3.60%E -1.83%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-21 00:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.51%EV -1.44%E -0.746%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.49%EV -3.60%E -1.83%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-21 00:20
GTbets🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.51%EV -1.44%E -0.746%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.49%EV -3.60%E -1.83%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-21 00:20
Everygame🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.90%EV -1.95%E -1.02%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.10%EV -2.62%E -1.32%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-20 21:15
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.46%E -1.29%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.54%E -3.42%K -7.19%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-19 21:45
TAB🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.65%EV -2.97%E -1.56%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.35%EV -4.58%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-20 21:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -2.97%E -1.56%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -7.03%E -3.70%K -7.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-21 00:30
BetRivers🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.04%EV -3.48%E -1.84%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.96%EV -3.60%E -1.83%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-20 21:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.04%EV -3.48%E -1.84%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.96%EV -3.60%E -1.83%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-20 21:45
DraftKings🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -3.48%E -1.84%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -5.56%E -2.88%K -5.98%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-21 00:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.91%EV -3.99%E -2.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.09%EV -4.58%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-20 21:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.91%EV -3.99%E -2.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.09%EV -4.58%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-20 21:45
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.50%E -2.41%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.58%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-20 12:10
PlayUp🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.50%E -2.41%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.58%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-20 17:20
Bet Right🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.50%E -2.41%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.58%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-20 20:25
Caesars🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.50%E -2.41%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.58%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-19 20:29
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.50%E -2.41%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.58%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-20 09:10
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.50%E -2.41%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.58%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-20 00:20
Coolbet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.50%E -2.41%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.58%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-20 05:35
Betsson🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.50%E -2.41%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.07%E -2.61%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-20 23:50
Neds🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.50%E -2.41%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.07%E -2.61%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-20 09:10
Unibet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.50%E -2.41%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.07%E -2.61%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-20 21:45
Bally Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.50%E -2.41%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.07%E -2.61%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-20 21:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.50%E -2.41%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.07%E -2.61%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-20 21:45
Casumo🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.50%E -2.41%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.07%E -2.61%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-20 21:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.50%E -2.41%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.07%E -2.61%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-20 21:45
betPARX🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.50%E -2.41%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.07%E -2.61%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-20 21:45
FanDuel🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -5.01%E -2.70%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -3.11%E -1.57%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-20 21:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.18%EV -5.01%E -2.70%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -4.58%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-20 20:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -5.01%E -2.70%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -5.07%E -2.61%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-20 21:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -5.01%E -2.70%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -5.07%E -2.61%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-20 21:50
MyBookie.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -5.52%E -2.99%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -2.14%E -1.07%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-21 00:04
Dabble (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -5.52%E -2.99%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -3.11%E -1.57%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-21 00:30
SportsBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -5.52%E -2.99%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -4.09%E -2.09%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-20 22:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.52%E -2.99%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.58%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-20 09:15
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.52%E -2.99%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.58%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-20 09:15
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -5.52%E -2.99%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -5.56%E -2.88%K -5.98%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-20 21:50
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.52%E -2.99%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.54%E -3.42%K -7.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-20 05:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.52%E -2.99%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.54%E -3.42%K -7.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-20 05:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.52%E -2.99%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.54%E -3.42%K -7.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-20 05:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.55%E -3.58%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.14%E -1.07%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-20 22:55
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.55%E -3.58%K -7.89%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -4.58%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-21 00:22
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.55%E -3.58%K -7.89%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.54%E -3.42%K -7.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-20 21:40
Grosvenor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.55%E -3.58%K -7.89%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.54%E -3.42%K -7.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-20 21:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.85%EV -7.06%E -3.88%K -8.61%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.15%EV -4.09%E -2.09%K -4.26%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-21 00:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -8.08%E -4.49%K -10.10%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -7.03%E -3.70%K -7.81%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-21 00:24
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.65%EV -10.12%E -5.75%K -13.32%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.35%EV -8.01%E -4.26%K -9.10%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-21 00:25
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (9)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Kalshi1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.1%2026-07-21 00:10
Polymarket1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.1%2026-07-20 00:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.14%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.86%1.3%2026-07-21 00:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.14%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.86%1.3%2026-07-21 00:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.14%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.86%1.3%2026-07-21 00:15
ProphetX1.91I 52.36%NM 51.40%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.60%1.9%2026-07-21 00:20
Novig1.90I 52.63%NM 51.53%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.47%2.1%2026-07-21 00:30
Smarkets1.91I 52.36%NM 51.03%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.97%2.6%2026-07-21 00:15
Matchbook1.95I 51.28%NM 49.22%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.78%4.2%2026-07-21 00:15