L’École des cotes

Chicago Cubs v Detroit Tigers

Coup d’envoi : 2026-07-21 00:35 UTC

Score final : Chicago Cubs 6–8 Detroit Tigers

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

48 opérateurs (14 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Chicago Cubs (Local)

Prévision 51.07%1.96cote équitable
EV -1.44%
Avantage -0.746%
Kelly -1.55%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.93

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
50.00%51.08%51.05%52.22%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.761.871.871.9356.82%53.56%53.48%51.81%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Detroit Tigers (Visiteur)

Prévision 48.93%2.04cote équitable
EV -2.14%
Avantage -1.07%
Kelly -2.14%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
47.78%48.92%48.95%50.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.881.951.952.0053.19%51.39%51.28%50.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (48 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
BetUS1.93I 51.81%NM 50.64%EV -1.44%E -0.746%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.36%EV -3.11%E -1.57%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-21 00:15
BetOnline.ag1.93I 51.81%NM 50.51%EV -1.44%E -0.746%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.49%EV -3.60%E -1.83%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-21 00:25
LowVig.ag1.93I 51.81%NM 50.51%EV -1.44%E -0.746%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.49%EV -3.60%E -1.83%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-21 00:20
GTbets1.93I 51.81%NM 50.51%EV -1.44%E -0.746%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.49%EV -3.60%E -1.83%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-21 00:20
Everygame1.92I 52.08%NM 50.90%EV -1.95%E -1.02%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.10%EV -2.62%E -1.32%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-20 21:15
William Hill1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.46%E -1.29%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.54%E -3.42%K -7.19%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-19 21:45
TAB1.90I 52.63%NM 50.65%EV -2.97%E -1.56%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.35%EV -4.58%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-20 21:05
Ladbrokes (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -2.97%E -1.56%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -7.03%E -3.70%K -7.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-21 00:30
BetRivers1.89I 52.91%NM 51.04%EV -3.48%E -1.84%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.96%EV -3.60%E -1.83%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-20 21:45
Svenska Spel1.89I 52.91%NM 51.04%EV -3.48%E -1.84%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.96%EV -3.60%E -1.83%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-20 21:45
DraftKings1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -3.48%E -1.84%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -5.56%E -2.88%K -5.98%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-21 00:30
Unibet (NL)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.91%EV -3.99%E -2.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.09%EV -4.58%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-20 21:45
Unibet (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.91%EV -3.99%E -2.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.09%EV -4.58%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-20 21:45
Fanatics1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.50%E -2.41%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.58%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-20 12:10
PlayUp1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.50%E -2.41%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.58%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-20 17:20
Bet Right1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.50%E -2.41%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.58%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-20 20:25
Caesars1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.50%E -2.41%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.58%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-19 20:29
BetMGM1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.50%E -2.41%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.58%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-20 09:10
theScore Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.50%E -2.41%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.58%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-20 00:20
Coolbet1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.50%E -2.41%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.58%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-20 05:35
Betsson1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.50%E -2.41%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.07%E -2.61%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-20 23:50
Neds1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.50%E -2.41%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.07%E -2.61%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-20 09:10
Unibet1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.50%E -2.41%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.07%E -2.61%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-20 21:45
Bally Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.50%E -2.41%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.07%E -2.61%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-20 21:45
LeoVegas (SE)1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.50%E -2.41%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.07%E -2.61%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-20 21:45
Casumo1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.50%E -2.41%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.07%E -2.61%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-20 21:50
ATG (SE)1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.50%E -2.41%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.07%E -2.61%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-20 21:45
betPARX1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.50%E -2.41%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.07%E -2.61%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-20 21:45
FanDuel1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -5.01%E -2.70%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -3.11%E -1.57%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-20 21:15
Betr (AU)1.86I 53.76%NM 51.18%EV -5.01%E -2.70%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -4.58%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-20 20:25
LiveScore Bet1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -5.01%E -2.70%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -5.07%E -2.61%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-20 21:50
Virgin Bet1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -5.01%E -2.70%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -5.07%E -2.61%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-20 21:50
MyBookie.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -5.52%E -2.99%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -2.14%E -1.07%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-21 00:04
Dabble (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -5.52%E -2.99%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -3.11%E -1.57%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-21 00:30
SportsBet1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -5.52%E -2.99%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -4.09%E -2.09%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-20 22:35
Ladbrokes (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.52%E -2.99%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.58%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-20 09:15
Coral1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.52%E -2.99%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.58%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-20 09:15
TABtouch1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -5.52%E -2.99%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -5.56%E -2.88%K -5.98%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-20 21:50
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.52%E -2.99%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.54%E -3.42%K -7.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-20 05:35
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.52%E -2.99%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.54%E -3.42%K -7.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-20 05:35
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.52%E -2.99%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.54%E -3.42%K -7.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-20 05:35
Hard Rock Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.55%E -3.58%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.14%E -1.07%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-20 22:55
Betway1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.55%E -3.58%K -7.89%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -4.58%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-21 00:22
Paddy Power1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.55%E -3.58%K -7.89%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.54%E -3.42%K -7.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-20 21:40
Grosvenor1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.55%E -3.58%K -7.89%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.54%E -3.42%K -7.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-20 21:45
Winamax (DE)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.85%EV -7.06%E -3.88%K -8.61%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.15%EV -4.09%E -2.09%K -4.26%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-21 00:25
Betclic (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -8.08%E -4.49%K -10.10%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -7.03%E -3.70%K -7.81%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-21 00:24
Winamax (FR)1.76I 56.82%NM 51.65%EV -10.12%E -5.75%K -13.32%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.35%EV -8.01%E -4.26%K -9.10%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-21 00:25
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (9)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Kalshi1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.1%2026-07-21 00:10
Polymarket1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.1%2026-07-20 00:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.14%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.86%1.3%2026-07-21 00:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.14%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.86%1.3%2026-07-21 00:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.14%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.86%1.3%2026-07-21 00:15
ProphetX1.91I 52.36%NM 51.40%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.60%1.9%2026-07-21 00:20
Novig1.90I 52.63%NM 51.53%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.47%2.1%2026-07-21 00:30
Smarkets1.91I 52.36%NM 51.03%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.97%2.6%2026-07-21 00:15
Matchbook1.95I 51.28%NM 49.22%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.78%4.2%2026-07-21 00:15