L’École des cotes

Chicago Cubs v Cincinnati Reds

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-06 23:41 UTC

Score final : Chicago Cubs 7–6 Cincinnati Reds

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

60 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Chicago Cubs (Local)

Prévision 59.74%1.67cote équitable
EV -2.63%
Avantage -1.61%
Kelly -4.17%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.63

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
57.95%59.71%59.74%61.56%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.511.581.571.6366.23%63.38%63.69%61.35%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cincinnati Reds (Visiteur)

Prévision 40.26%2.48cote équitable
EV -0.555%
Avantage -0.225%
Kelly -0.378%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.47

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
38.44%40.29%40.26%42.05%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.152.382.382.4746.51%42.08%42.02%40.49%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (60 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
1xBet1.63I 61.35%NM 60.15%EV -2.63%E -1.61%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.85%EV -0.958%E -0.389%K -0.656%G +0.000%2.0%2026-05-06 22:50
Pinnacle1.62I 61.73%NM 60.39%EV -3.22%E -1.99%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 39.61%EV -0.555%E -0.225%K -0.378%G +0.000%2.2%2026-05-06 23:15
BetOnline.ag1.62I 61.73%NM 60.29%EV -3.22%E -1.99%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.71%EV -0.958%E -0.389%K -0.656%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-06 23:40
LowVig.ag1.62I 61.73%NM 60.29%EV -3.22%E -1.99%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.71%EV -0.958%E -0.389%K -0.656%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-06 23:40
GTbets1.62I 61.73%NM 60.29%EV -3.22%E -1.99%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.71%EV -0.958%E -0.389%K -0.656%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-06 23:37
Everygame1.62I 61.73%NM 60.20%EV -3.22%E -1.99%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.80%EV -1.36%E -0.555%K -0.938%G +0.000%2.5%2026-05-06 23:39
BetUS1.62I 61.73%NM 59.90%EV -3.22%E -1.99%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.10%EV -2.57%E -1.06%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-06 23:39
Caesars1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -3.82%E -2.37%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -3.37%E -1.41%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-06 23:37
Bovada1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -3.82%E -2.37%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -4.18%E -1.76%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-06 23:28
Betway1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -3.82%E -2.37%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -7.40%E -3.22%K -5.69%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-06 23:39
FanDuel1.60I 62.50%NM 60.20%EV -4.42%E -2.76%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.80%EV -2.57%E -1.06%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-05 18:10
Unibet (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.42%E -2.76%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.39%E -2.29%K -3.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-06 23:40
PlayUp1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.42%E -2.76%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.39%E -2.29%K -3.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-06 23:20
betPARX1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.42%E -2.76%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.39%E -2.29%K -3.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-06 23:40
Coolbet1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.42%E -2.76%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.39%E -2.29%K -3.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-06 23:40
Winamax (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.42%E -2.76%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.40%E -3.22%K -5.69%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-06 23:40
theScore Bet1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -5.01%E -3.15%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -1.36%E -0.555%K -0.938%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-06 06:39
MyBookie.ag1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -5.01%E -3.15%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -2.57%E -1.06%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-06 20:44
ReBet1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.01%E -3.15%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -3.37%E -1.41%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-06 20:40
BetMGM1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -5.01%E -3.15%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -5.39%E -2.29%K -3.99%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-06 23:40
DraftKings1.59I 62.89%NM 59.02%EV -5.01%E -3.15%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.98%EV -7.80%E -3.41%K -6.05%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-06 23:40
PointsBet (AU)1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -5.01%E -3.15%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -9.41%E -4.18%K -7.53%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-06 23:40
Fliff1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -5.01%E -3.15%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -9.41%E -4.18%K -7.53%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-06 23:40
Betsson1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -5.01%E -3.15%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -9.41%E -4.18%K -7.53%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-06 23:40
Bet Right1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.61%E -3.55%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -3.37%E -1.41%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-06 22:50
Marathon Bet1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -5.61%E -3.55%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -4.18%E -1.76%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 22:45
TAB1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -5.61%E -3.55%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -7.40%E -3.22%K -5.69%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-06 23:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -6.21%E -3.96%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -1.36%E -0.555%K -0.938%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-06 16:40
Neds1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -6.21%E -3.96%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -1.36%E -0.555%K -0.938%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-06 16:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -6.21%E -3.96%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -1.36%E -0.555%K -0.938%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-06 16:40
Coral1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -6.21%E -3.96%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -1.36%E -0.555%K -0.938%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-06 16:40
SportsBet1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%EV -6.21%E -3.96%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%EV -2.97%E -1.23%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-06 11:44
Betr (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.21%E -3.96%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.37%E -1.41%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-06 14:10
888sport (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.21%E -3.96%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.37%E -1.41%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-06 17:00
Mr Green (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.21%E -3.96%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.37%E -1.41%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-06 17:00
William Hill1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.21%E -3.96%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.18%E -1.76%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-06 14:00
Unibet (FR)1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.21%E -3.96%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -5.39%E -2.29%K -3.99%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-06 23:29
Dabble (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.21%E -3.96%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -5.39%E -2.29%K -3.99%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-06 23:25
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.21%E -3.96%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.40%E -3.22%K -5.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-06 23:40
NordicBet1.57I 63.69%NM 59.33%EV -6.21%E -3.96%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.67%EV -7.80%E -3.41%K -6.05%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-06 23:40
888sport1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.21%E -3.96%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -9.41%E -4.18%K -7.53%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-06 23:40
Unibet (NL)1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.81%E -4.36%K -12.16%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.17%E -0.891%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 23:40
Casumo1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.81%E -4.36%K -12.16%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.17%E -0.891%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 21:45
Unibet1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.81%E -4.36%K -12.16%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.17%E -0.891%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 21:45
Unibet (SE)1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.81%E -4.36%K -12.16%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.17%E -0.891%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 23:40
ATG (SE)1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.81%E -4.36%K -12.16%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.17%E -0.891%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 21:45
Svenska Spel1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.81%E -4.36%K -12.16%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.17%E -0.891%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 23:40
TABtouch1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -6.81%E -4.36%K -12.16%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -4.18%E -1.76%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-06 23:40
Hard Rock Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.81%E -4.36%K -12.16%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -5.39%E -2.29%K -3.99%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-06 23:40
Winamax (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 57.95%EV -6.81%E -4.36%K -12.16%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -13.44%E -6.25%K -11.69%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-06 23:40
Tipico (DE)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -7.40%E -4.78%K -13.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -3.37%E -1.41%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-06 16:50
Virgin Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -7.40%E -4.78%K -13.46%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV -4.18%E -1.76%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-06 23:40
LiveScore Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -7.40%E -4.78%K -13.46%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV -4.18%E -1.76%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-06 23:40
Grosvenor1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -7.40%E -4.78%K -13.46%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV -4.18%E -1.76%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-06 23:40
Bally Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -7.40%E -4.78%K -13.46%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV -4.18%E -1.76%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-06 23:40
Bet Victor1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.40%E -4.78%K -13.46%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.40%E -3.22%K -5.69%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-06 23:29
BetRivers1.54I 64.94%NM 60.41%EV -8.00%E -5.20%K -14.82%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -5.39%E -2.29%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-06 23:40
Fanatics1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -8.60%E -5.62%K -16.23%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -1.36%E -0.555%K -0.938%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-06 23:40
LeoVegas1.53I 65.36%NM 60.36%EV -8.60%E -5.62%K -16.23%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.64%EV -6.19%E -2.66%K -4.66%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-06 23:40
LeoVegas (SE)1.51I 66.23%NM 60.57%EV -9.79%E -6.49%K -19.20%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.43%EV -6.59%E -2.84%K -5.00%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-06 23:40
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (10)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
BetOpenly1.66I 60.24%NM 60.19%2.51I 39.84%NM 39.81%0.1%2026-05-06 23:39
Smarkets1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90%0.4%2026-05-06 23:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90%0.4%2026-05-06 23:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90%0.4%2026-05-06 23:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76%0.8%2026-05-06 23:40
Polymarket1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-05-06 22:10
ProphetX1.60I 62.50%NM 61.35%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.65%1.9%2026-05-06 23:40
Kalshi1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.20%2.0%2026-05-06 23:40
Novig1.62I 61.73%NM 60.49%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.51%2.1%2026-05-06 23:40
Matchbook1.54I 64.94%NM 58.38%2.16I 46.30%NM 41.62%11.2%2026-05-06 23:40