L’École des cotes

Chicago Cubs v Arizona Diamondbacks

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-03 18:21 UTC

Score final : Chicago Cubs 8–4 Arizona Diamondbacks

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

61 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Chicago Cubs (Local)

Prévision 58.32%1.71cote équitable
EV -1.44%
Avantage -0.850%
Kelly -2.08%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.69

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
56.70%58.39%58.25%59.64%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.541.631.621.6964.94%61.47%61.73%59.17%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Arizona Diamondbacks (Visiteur)

Prévision 41.68%2.40cote équitable
EV -2.06%
Avantage -0.875%
Kelly -1.52%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.35

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
40.36%41.61%41.75%43.30%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.202.292.302.3545.45%43.69%43.48%42.55%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (61 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
GTbets1.69I 59.17%NM 57.96%EV -1.44%E -0.850%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.04%EV -2.89%E -1.24%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.1%2026-05-03 18:19
Pinnacle1.69I 59.17%NM 57.96%EV -1.44%E -0.850%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.04%EV -2.89%E -1.24%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.1%2026-05-03 18:15
Everygame1.69I 59.17%NM 57.96%EV -1.44%E -0.850%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.04%EV -2.89%E -1.24%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.1%2026-05-03 18:10
1xBet1.68I 59.52%NM 58.31%EV -2.02%E -1.20%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.69%EV -2.06%E -0.875%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.1%2026-05-03 17:55
LowVig.ag1.68I 59.52%NM 58.00%EV -2.02%E -1.20%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.00%EV -3.31%E -1.43%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-03 18:20
BetOnline.ag1.68I 59.52%NM 58.00%EV -2.02%E -1.20%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.00%EV -3.31%E -1.43%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-03 18:20
BetUS1.68I 59.52%NM 57.89%EV -2.02%E -1.20%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 42.11%EV -3.72%E -1.61%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-03 18:20
TAB1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -2.02%E -1.20%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -6.22%E -2.77%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-03 18:18
PlayUp1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -2.02%E -1.20%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -8.31%E -3.78%K -6.92%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-03 18:15
theScore Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.60%E -1.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.14%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-03 06:35
Bovada1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.60%E -1.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -6.22%E -2.77%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 18:17
Coral1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.60%E -1.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -6.22%E -2.77%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 17:55
Ladbrokes (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.60%E -1.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -6.22%E -2.77%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 18:19
Neds1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.60%E -1.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -6.22%E -2.77%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 18:20
Ladbrokes (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.60%E -1.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -6.22%E -2.77%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 17:55
Dabble (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.60%E -1.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.31%E -3.78%K -6.92%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 18:15
Betsson1.66I 60.24%NM 57.22%EV -3.19%E -1.92%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78%EV -7.47%E -3.37%K -6.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 18:10
NordicBet1.66I 60.24%NM 57.22%EV -3.19%E -1.92%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78%EV -7.47%E -3.37%K -6.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 18:10
MyBookie.ag1.65I 60.61%NM 58.33%EV -3.77%E -2.28%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.67%EV -3.72%E -1.61%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-03 18:20
ReBet1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.77%E -2.28%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.14%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-03 17:55
Caesars1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.77%E -2.28%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.14%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-03 18:05
Fliff1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.77%E -2.28%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.22%E -2.77%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 18:15
Unibet (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.77%E -2.28%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.22%E -2.77%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 18:20
DraftKings1.64I 60.98%NM 58.27%EV -4.35%E -2.65%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.73%EV -4.56%E -1.99%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-03 17:50
Bet Right1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.94%E -3.03%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.14%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-03 18:05
Marathon Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.94%E -3.03%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.97%E -2.18%K -3.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-03 17:55
SportsBet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -5.52%E -3.41%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -3.72%E -1.61%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-03 13:15
888sport1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.52%E -3.41%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.14%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-02 18:15
Betr (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.52%E -3.41%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.14%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-02 18:15
888sport (SE)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.52%E -3.41%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.14%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-02 18:15
Mr Green (SE)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.52%E -3.41%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.14%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-02 18:15
William Hill1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.52%E -3.41%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.14%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-02 21:45
Coolbet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.52%E -3.41%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.14%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-03 17:15
Hard Rock Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.52%E -3.41%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.14%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-03 18:15
Unibet (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.52%E -3.41%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.22%E -2.77%K -4.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 18:09
Betway1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.52%E -3.41%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.22%E -2.77%K -4.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 18:19
BoyleSports1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.52%E -3.41%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.22%E -2.77%K -4.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 17:55
Fanatics1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.52%E -3.41%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.31%E -3.78%K -6.92%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 18:20
Unibet1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.68%E -4.18%K -11.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -2.06%E -0.875%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 18:20
Unibet (NL)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.68%E -4.18%K -11.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -2.06%E -0.875%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 18:20
Unibet (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.68%E -4.18%K -11.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -2.06%E -0.875%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 18:20
Casumo1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.68%E -4.18%K -11.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -2.06%E -0.875%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 18:20
Virgin Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.68%E -4.18%K -11.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -2.06%E -0.875%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 17:55
betPARX1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.68%E -4.18%K -11.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -2.06%E -0.875%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 18:20
Svenska Spel1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.68%E -4.18%K -11.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -2.06%E -0.875%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 18:20
ATG (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.68%E -4.18%K -11.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -2.06%E -0.875%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 18:20
FanDuel1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.68%E -4.18%K -11.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.14%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-03 18:20
Winamax (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.68%E -4.18%K -11.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.14%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-03 18:20
Tipico (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.68%E -4.18%K -11.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.14%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-03 17:40
Paddy Power1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.68%E -4.18%K -11.14%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.22%E -2.77%K -4.98%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-03 15:55
Bet Victor1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.68%E -4.18%K -11.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.31%E -3.78%K -6.92%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 18:12
BetMGM1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -7.27%E -4.57%K -12.32%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -2.06%E -0.875%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-03 18:21
PointsBet (AU)1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -7.27%E -4.57%K -12.32%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -4.14%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 18:20
LiveScore Bet1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -7.85%E -4.97%K -13.54%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -4.14%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-03 18:20
TABtouch1.57I 63.69%NM 59.64%EV -8.43%E -5.37%K -14.80%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.36%EV -3.31%E -1.43%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-03 18:20
Grosvenor1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -8.43%E -5.37%K -14.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -4.14%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 18:20
Bally Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -8.43%E -5.37%K -14.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -4.14%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 18:20
BetRivers1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -9.02%E -5.78%K -16.10%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -4.14%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 18:20
LeoVegas1.56I 64.10%NM 59.38%EV -9.02%E -5.78%K -16.10%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%EV -4.97%E -2.18%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 18:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -9.60%E -6.19%K -17.46%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -6.22%E -2.77%K -4.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-03 18:20
Winamax (FR)1.54I 64.94%NM 58.82%EV -10.18%E -6.61%K -18.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -8.31%E -3.78%K -6.92%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-03 18:20
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (10)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
BetOpenly1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16%0.5%2026-05-03 18:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67%0.8%2026-05-03 18:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67%0.8%2026-05-03 18:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67%0.8%2026-05-03 18:21
Polymarket1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.2%2026-05-03 18:05
Novig1.68I 59.52%NM 58.62%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.38%1.5%2026-05-03 18:20
ProphetX1.68I 59.52%NM 58.62%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.38%1.5%2026-05-03 18:21
Kalshi1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23%1.9%2026-05-03 18:20
Smarkets1.66I 60.24%NM 58.50%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.50%3.0%2026-05-03 18:20
Matchbook1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%3.0%2026-05-03 18:20