The School of Odds

Boston Red Sox v Baltimore Orioles

2026-07-22 23:10 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Boston Red Sox (Local)

Prediction 58.41%1.71fair odd
EV -1.88%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -2.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.14%58.41%58.26%59.46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.561.631.651.6864%61%61%60%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Baltimore Orioles (Visit)

Prediction 41.59%2.40fair odd
EV +0.657%
Edge +0.271%
Kelly +0.463%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 2.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.54%41.59%41.74%42.86%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.152.282.262.4247%44%44%41%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
GTbets1.65I 60.61%NM 59.46%EV -3.63%E -2.20%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.54%EV +0.657%E +0.271%K +0.463%G +0.003%1.9%2026-07-21 19:20
BetOnline.ag1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%EV -3.63%E -2.20%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%EV -0.175%E -0.073%K -0.125%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-21 19:20
LowVig.ag1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%EV -3.63%E -2.20%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%EV -0.175%E -0.073%K -0.125%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-21 19:20
1xBet1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%EV -2.46%E -1.47%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23%EV -1.01%E -0.423%K -0.730%G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-21 19:45
Caesars1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.38%E -3.32%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.25%E -0.959%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-21 19:20
DraftKings1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.97%E -3.71%K -9.78%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -2.25%E -0.959%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-21 19:25
Fanatics1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.63%E -2.20%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.33%E -1.88%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-21 21:44
MyBookie.ag1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.63%E -2.20%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.33%E -1.88%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-21 21:45
PlayUp1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.80%E -2.94%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.33%E -1.88%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-21 19:25
Fliff1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.38%E -3.32%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.33%E -1.88%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-21 19:20
Betclic (FR)1.61I 62.11%NM 58.72%EV -5.97%E -3.71%K -9.78%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.28%EV -4.75%E -2.07%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-21 21:35
Unibet (UK)1.64I 60.98%NM 58.06%EV -4.21%E -2.57%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.94%EV -5.58%E -2.46%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-21 21:40
FanDuel1.68I 59.52%NM 57.36%EV -1.88%E -1.12%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.64%EV -6.00%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-21 21:25
Bet Right1.65I 60.61%NM 57.80%EV -3.63%E -2.20%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.20%EV -6.00%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-21 21:40
888sport1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.63%E -2.20%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.41%E -2.85%K -5.13%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-21 21:40
Mr Green (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.63%E -2.20%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.41%E -2.85%K -5.13%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-21 21:40
888sport (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.63%E -2.20%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.41%E -2.85%K -5.13%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-21 21:40
Betr (AU)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.21%E -2.57%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.41%E -2.85%K -5.13%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-21 21:40
Winamax (DE)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.38%E -3.32%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.41%E -2.85%K -5.13%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-21 21:40
Bet Victor1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.97%E -3.71%K -9.78%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.41%E -2.85%K -5.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-21 21:40
ReBet1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.30%E -5.29%K -14.57%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -6.41%E -2.85%K -5.13%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-21 19:20
SportsBet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.63%E -2.20%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -8.49%E -3.86%K -7.08%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-21 21:25
Paddy Power1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.63%E -2.20%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -8.49%E -3.86%K -7.08%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-21 21:25
Unibet (FR)1.57I 63.69%NM 57.80%EV -8.30%E -5.29%K -14.57%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.20%EV -10.57%E -4.92%K -9.19%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-21 21:40
Winamax (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 57.95%EV -8.89%E -5.70%K -15.87%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -10.57%E -4.92%K -9.19%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-21 21:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-07-21 19:20
Kalshi1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.2%2026-07-21 21:40
Novig1.67I 59.88%NM 58.25%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.75%2.8%2026-07-21 21:35
Smarkets1.57I 63.69%NM 57.68%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.32%10.4%2026-07-21 21:40