La escuela de los momios

Baltimore Orioles v Washington Nationals

Inicio: 2026-06-28 17:36 UTC

Final: Baltimore Orioles 4–6 Washington Nationals

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

64 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Baltimore Orioles (Local)

Predicción 64.11%1.56momio equitativo
EV -1.28%
Ventaja -0.830%
Kelly -2.37%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.54

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
62.03%64.01%64.16%65.06%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.441.491.491.5469.44%67.07%67.11%64.94%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Washington Nationals (Visitante)

Predicción 35.89%2.79momio equitativo
EV -0.213%
Ventaja -0.077%
Kelly -0.120%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.78

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.94%35.99%35.84%37.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.452.662.652.7840.82%37.57%37.74%35.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (64 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
1xBet1.54I 64.94%NM 63.68%EV -1.28%E -0.830%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.32%EV -3.09%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.0%2026-06-28 16:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -1.92%E -1.25%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -6.67%E -2.57%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.8%2026-06-28 13:20
Fliff1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -1.92%E -1.25%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -8.47%E -3.32%K -5.46%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-28 17:20
Pinnacle1.52I 65.79%NM 64.57%EV -2.56%E -1.68%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 35.43%EV -0.572%E -0.207%K -0.323%G +0.000%1.9%2026-06-28 17:30
TAB1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -2.56%E -1.68%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -6.67%E -2.57%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-28 02:30
LowVig.ag1.51I 66.23%NM 64.80%EV -3.20%E -2.12%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.20%EV -0.213%E -0.077%K -0.120%G +0.000%2.2%2026-06-28 15:59
BetOnline.ag1.51I 66.23%NM 64.80%EV -3.20%E -2.12%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.20%EV -0.213%E -0.077%K -0.120%G +0.000%2.2%2026-06-28 15:59
GTbets1.51I 66.23%NM 64.80%EV -3.20%E -2.12%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.20%EV -0.213%E -0.077%K -0.120%G +0.000%2.2%2026-06-28 15:59
BetUS1.51I 66.23%NM 64.13%EV -3.20%E -2.12%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.87%EV -3.09%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.3%2026-06-28 16:29
BetAnything1.51I 66.23%NM 64.13%EV -3.20%E -2.12%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.87%EV -3.09%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.3%2026-06-28 15:49
theScore Bet1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -3.20%E -2.12%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -4.88%E -1.84%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-27 22:00
FanDuel1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -3.20%E -2.12%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -5.24%E -1.98%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-28 13:20
NordicBet1.51I 66.23%NM 62.99%EV -3.20%E -2.12%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.01%EV -7.75%E -3.02%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-27 21:50
Betsson1.51I 66.23%NM 62.99%EV -3.20%E -2.12%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.01%EV -7.75%E -3.02%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-27 21:50
Betway1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -3.84%E -2.56%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV -1.29%E -0.469%K -0.737%G +0.000%3.0%2026-06-28 16:19
Svenska Spel1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -3.84%E -2.56%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV -1.29%E -0.469%K -0.737%G +0.000%3.0%2026-06-28 16:49
Everygame1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -3.84%E -2.56%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV -1.29%E -0.469%K -0.737%G +0.000%3.0%2026-06-28 16:10
MyBookie.ag1.50I 66.67%NM 64.03%EV -3.84%E -2.56%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.97%EV -4.16%E -1.56%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-28 16:29
PointsBet (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.84%E -2.56%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.88%E -1.84%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-27 18:00
Unibet (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.84%E -2.56%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.88%E -1.84%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-28 16:19
Bet Right1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.84%E -2.56%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.88%E -1.84%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-28 16:00
ReBet1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.84%E -2.56%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.88%E -1.84%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-28 16:20
Hard Rock Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.84%E -2.56%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.88%E -1.84%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-28 05:39
SportsBet1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -3.84%E -2.56%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -5.96%E -2.27%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-28 13:19
PlayUp1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.84%E -2.56%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.67%E -2.57%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-28 16:19
William Hill1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.84%E -2.56%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.67%E -2.57%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-27 18:19
BoyleSports1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.84%E -2.56%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.67%E -2.57%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-28 12:19
Bet Victor1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -3.84%E -2.56%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -12.06%E -4.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-28 17:30
Fanatics1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -4.48%E -3.01%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -3.09%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-28 16:10
Caesars1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -4.48%E -3.01%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -3.09%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-28 15:09
Unibet (SE)1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -4.48%E -3.01%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -3.09%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-28 16:49
Unibet (NL)1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -4.48%E -3.01%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -3.09%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-28 16:49
DraftKings1.49I 67.11%NM 64.27%EV -4.48%E -3.01%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.73%EV -3.80%E -1.42%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-28 15:38
Bovada1.49I 67.11%NM 64.27%EV -4.48%E -3.01%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.73%EV -3.80%E -1.42%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-28 17:20
Winamax (DE)1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -4.48%E -3.01%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -6.67%E -2.57%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-28 16:20
Neds1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.12%E -3.46%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -3.09%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-28 15:59
Unibet1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.12%E -3.46%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -3.09%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-28 16:49
Casumo1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.12%E -3.46%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -3.09%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-28 16:49
LeoVegas (SE)1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.12%E -3.46%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -3.09%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-28 16:49
LeoVegas1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.12%E -3.46%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -3.09%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-28 16:49
ATG (SE)1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.12%E -3.46%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -3.09%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-28 16:49
betPARX1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.12%E -3.46%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -3.09%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-28 16:49
Bally Bet1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.12%E -3.46%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -3.09%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-28 16:49
Ladbrokes (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.12%E -3.46%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -3.09%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-28 16:00
BetMGM1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.12%E -3.46%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -3.09%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-28 15:59
Coral1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.12%E -3.46%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -3.09%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-28 15:59
Ladbrokes (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.12%E -3.46%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -3.09%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-28 16:00
Coolbet1.48I 67.57%NM 64.34%EV -5.12%E -3.46%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.66%EV -4.16%E -1.56%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-28 17:29
Betr (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.12%E -3.46%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.88%E -1.84%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-28 17:29
Marathon Bet1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.12%E -3.46%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.88%E -1.84%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-28 17:30
TABtouch1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.12%E -3.46%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.88%E -1.84%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-28 16:49
BetRivers1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.12%E -3.46%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.88%E -1.84%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-28 16:49
LiveScore Bet1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.12%E -3.46%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.88%E -1.84%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-28 16:49
Virgin Bet1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.12%E -3.46%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.88%E -1.84%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-28 16:50
Unibet (FR)1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.12%E -3.46%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.67%E -2.57%K -4.17%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-28 17:30
Dabble (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.12%E -3.46%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.67%E -2.57%K -4.17%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-28 17:19
Winamax (FR)1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -5.12%E -3.46%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -8.47%E -3.32%K -5.46%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-28 16:20
888sport1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -5.76%E -3.92%K -12.27%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -4.88%E -1.84%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-28 15:59
Mr Green (SE)1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -5.76%E -3.92%K -12.27%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -4.88%E -1.84%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-28 15:59
888sport (SE)1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -5.76%E -3.92%K -12.27%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -4.88%E -1.84%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-28 16:00
Betclic (FR)1.46I 68.49%NM 63.59%EV -6.41%E -4.39%K -13.93%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%EV -8.47%E -3.32%K -5.46%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-28 17:09
Tipico (DE)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.05%E -4.86%K -15.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -3.09%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-28 16:19
Grosvenor1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%EV -7.69%E -5.34%K -17.47%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -5.60%E -2.13%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-28 16:49
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.69%E -5.34%K -17.47%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.96%E -2.27%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-28 15:09
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
BetOpenly1.54I 64.94%NM 65.00%2.86I 34.97%NM 35.00%-0.1%2026-06-28 17:30
ProphetX1.54I 64.94%NM 64.84%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.16%0.1%2026-06-28 17:30
Novig1.53I 65.36%NM 65.15%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.85%0.3%2026-06-28 17:30
Matchbook1.54I 64.94%NM 64.68%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.32%0.4%2026-06-28 17:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01%0.6%2026-06-28 17:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01%0.6%2026-06-28 16:59
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01%0.6%2026-06-28 17:00
Kalshi1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%0.9%2026-06-28 15:09
Polymarket1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%0.9%2026-06-28 15:10
Smarkets1.50I 66.67%NM 64.95%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.05%2.6%2026-06-28 17:30