La escuela de los momios

Baltimore Orioles v New York Yankees

Inicio: 2026-05-11 22:36 UTC

Final: Baltimore Orioles 3–2 New York Yankees

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

61 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Baltimore Orioles (Local)

Predicción 42.54%2.35momio equitativo
EV +1.25%
Ventaja +0.525%
Kelly +0.905%
Crecimiento +0.011%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.36%42.65%42.51%44.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.102.272.262.3847.62%44.01%44.25%42.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

New York Yankees (Visitante)

Predicción 57.46%1.74momio equitativo
EV -0.597%
Ventaja -0.345%
Kelly -0.817%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.73

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
55.26%57.35%57.49%59.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.591.651.671.7362.89%60.50%59.88%57.80%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (61 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Svenska Spel2.38I 42.02%NM 40.65%EV +1.25%E +0.525%K +0.905%G +0.011%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.35%EV -6.34%E -3.89%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-11 22:34
Unibet (NL)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -0.028%E -0.012%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -6.92%E -4.27%K -11.16%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-11 22:29
Unibet (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -0.028%E -0.012%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -6.92%E -4.27%K -11.16%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-11 22:29
Caesars2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -0.028%E -0.012%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -6.92%E -4.27%K -11.16%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-11 21:28
LeoVegas2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -0.028%E -0.012%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -7.49%E -4.65%K -12.28%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-11 22:29
Casumo2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -0.028%E -0.012%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -7.49%E -4.65%K -12.28%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-11 22:30
ATG (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -0.028%E -0.012%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -7.49%E -4.65%K -12.28%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-11 22:30
LeoVegas (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -0.028%E -0.012%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -7.49%E -4.65%K -12.28%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-11 22:29
Unibet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -0.028%E -0.012%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -7.49%E -4.65%K -12.28%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-11 22:29
Grosvenor2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -0.028%E -0.012%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -7.49%E -4.65%K -12.28%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-11 22:30
Bally Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -0.028%E -0.012%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -7.49%E -4.65%K -12.28%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-11 22:29
betPARX2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -0.028%E -0.012%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -7.49%E -4.65%K -12.28%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-11 22:29
Fliff2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -0.028%E -0.012%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -8.64%E -5.43%K -14.65%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-11 22:04
GTbets2.34I 42.74%NM 41.79%EV -0.453%E -0.194%K -0.338%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.21%EV -3.47%E -2.07%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.3%2026-05-11 22:29
Everygame2.33I 42.92%NM 42.04%EV -0.879%E -0.377%K -0.661%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.96%EV -2.89%E -1.71%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.1%2026-05-11 21:49
BetUS2.33I 42.92%NM 41.90%EV -0.879%E -0.377%K -0.661%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.10%EV -3.47%E -2.07%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-11 22:29
Virgin Bet2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -0.879%E -0.377%K -0.661%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -8.07%E -5.04%K -13.44%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-11 22:29
LiveScore Bet2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -0.879%E -0.377%K -0.661%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -8.07%E -5.04%K -13.44%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-11 22:29
BetRivers2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -0.879%E -0.377%K -0.661%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -8.07%E -5.04%K -13.44%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-11 22:29
TABtouch2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -0.879%E -0.377%K -0.661%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -8.07%E -5.04%K -13.44%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-11 22:30
theScore Bet2.32I 43.10%NM 42.29%EV -1.30%E -0.562%K -0.988%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.71%EV -2.32%E -1.36%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.9%2026-05-11 21:39
LowVig.ag2.32I 43.10%NM 42.00%EV -1.30%E -0.562%K -0.988%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.00%EV -3.47%E -2.07%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-11 22:30
BetOnline.ag2.32I 43.10%NM 42.00%EV -1.30%E -0.562%K -0.988%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.00%EV -3.47%E -2.07%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-11 22:30
1xBet2.31I 43.29%NM 42.39%EV -1.73%E -0.749%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.61%EV -2.32%E -1.36%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.1%2026-05-11 17:09
Pinnacle2.30I 43.48%NM 42.64%EV -2.15%E -0.937%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 57.36%EV -1.75%E -1.02%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.0%2026-05-11 22:20
PointsBet (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.15%E -0.937%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.04%E -2.42%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-11 16:35
Hard Rock Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.15%E -0.937%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.04%E -2.42%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-11 21:08
Tipico (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -2.15%E -0.937%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -8.07%E -5.04%K -13.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-11 15:49
FanDuel2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%EV -3.01%E -1.32%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.87%EV -4.62%E -2.78%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-11 22:00
MyBookie.ag2.26I 44.25%NM 42.49%EV -3.86%E -1.71%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.51%EV -4.04%E -2.42%K -6.04%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-11 20:19
Bet Right2.26I 44.25%NM 42.20%EV -3.86%E -1.71%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.80%EV -5.19%E -3.15%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-11 21:24
Fanatics2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.28%E -1.90%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.04%E -2.42%K -6.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-11 18:44
ReBet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.28%E -1.90%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.04%E -2.42%K -6.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-11 20:14
BetMGM2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.28%E -1.90%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.04%E -2.42%K -6.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-11 16:20
Ladbrokes (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.28%E -1.90%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.04%E -2.42%K -6.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-11 22:34
Neds2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.28%E -1.90%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.04%E -2.42%K -6.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-11 22:34
Coral2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.28%E -1.90%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.04%E -2.42%K -6.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-11 16:20
Ladbrokes (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.28%E -1.90%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.04%E -2.42%K -6.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-11 16:19
Bovada2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.28%E -1.90%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.04%E -2.42%K -6.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-11 22:18
Dabble (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -4.28%E -1.90%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -4.62%E -2.78%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-11 22:24
SportsBet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.28%E -1.90%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.19%E -3.15%K -7.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-11 21:59
888sport2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.28%E -1.90%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.19%E -3.15%K -7.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-11 20:19
Mr Green (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.28%E -1.90%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.19%E -3.15%K -7.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-11 20:19
888sport (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.28%E -1.90%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.19%E -3.15%K -7.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-11 20:19
Coolbet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.28%E -1.90%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.19%E -3.15%K -7.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-11 21:19
Betr (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.28%E -1.90%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.77%E -3.52%K -9.01%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-11 20:14
Paddy Power2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -4.28%E -1.90%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -8.07%E -5.04%K -13.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 21:59
DraftKings2.24I 44.64%NM 42.71%EV -4.71%E -2.10%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.29%EV -4.04%E -2.42%K -6.04%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-11 21:25
TAB2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -6.41%E -2.91%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -2.32%E -1.36%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-11 22:29
PlayUp2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -6.41%E -2.91%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.47%E -2.07%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-11 22:30
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.41%E -2.91%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.04%E -2.42%K -6.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-11 22:19
Unibet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -6.41%E -2.91%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -6.34%E -3.89%K -10.07%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-11 22:30
BoyleSports2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.41%E -2.91%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.92%E -4.27%K -11.16%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-11 20:14
Marathon Bet2.19I 45.66%NM 43.41%EV -6.83%E -3.12%K -5.74%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%EV -3.47%E -2.07%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-11 22:30
Unibet (UK)2.18I 45.87%NM 44.25%EV -7.26%E -3.33%K -6.15%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.75%EV -0.597%E -0.345%K -0.817%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-11 22:34
Betsson2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -7.26%E -3.33%K -6.15%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -3.47%E -2.07%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-11 22:30
NordicBet2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -7.26%E -3.33%K -6.15%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -3.47%E -2.07%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-11 22:29
Betway2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -8.54%E -3.97%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -2.89%E -1.71%K -4.20%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-11 22:35
Bet Victor2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -10.66%E -5.08%K -9.69%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -2.32%E -1.36%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-11 22:24
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -10.66%E -5.08%K -9.69%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -2.32%E -1.36%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-11 22:34
Winamax (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -10.66%E -5.08%K -9.69%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -3.47%E -2.07%K -5.10%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-11 22:34
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%0.5%2026-05-11 22:34
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%0.5%2026-05-11 22:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%0.5%2026-05-11 22:35
Novig2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84%0.5%2026-05-11 22:34
ProphetX2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33%0.8%2026-05-11 22:34
Polymarket2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%1.2%2026-05-11 22:35
Matchbook2.36I 42.37%NM 41.73%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.27%1.5%2026-05-11 22:35
Kalshi2.33I 42.92%NM 42.04%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.96%2.1%2026-05-11 22:35
Smarkets2.34I 42.74%NM 41.79%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.21%2.3%2026-05-11 22:34
BetOpenly2.36I 42.37%NM 40.85%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.15%3.7%2026-05-11 22:29