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Baltimore Orioles v Kansas City Royals
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Baltimore Orioles (Local)
Prediction 57.83%1.73fair odd
EV -0.529%
Edge -0.307%
Kelly -0.734%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.72
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.84%57.81%57.69%58.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.661.671.7262.50%60.19%59.88%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Kansas City Royals (Visit)
Prediction 42.17%2.37fair odd
EV -0.062%
Edge -0.026%
Kelly -0.045%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.37
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.03%42.19%42.31%44.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.252.252.3746.51%44.35%44.44%42.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Baltimore Orioles (Local): 57.83%; Kansas City Royals (Visit): 42.17%. For Kansas City Royals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.371. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.370, with an expected value of -0.062%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (65 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.00%EV -0.529%E -0.307%K -0.734%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.00%EV -3.86%E -1.69%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-07-12 14:44 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.96%EV -1.69%E -0.991%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.04%EV -5.12%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-07-12 16:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.96%EV -1.69%E -0.991%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.04%EV -5.12%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-07-12 04:54 |
| Dabble (AU) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -1.69%E -0.991%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -9.34%E -4.34%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-12 17:34 |
| Everygame | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.96%EV -2.26%E -1.34%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 42.04%EV -1.75%E -0.751%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 2.1% | 2026-07-12 14:40 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -2.26%E -1.34%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -5.12%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-07-12 11:54 |
| theScore Bet | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -2.26%E -1.34%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -5.12%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-07-12 12:14 |
| Pinnacle | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.42%EV -2.84%E -1.69%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.58%EV -0.484%E -0.205%K -0.356%G +0.000% | 1.9% | 2026-07-12 16:44 |
| BetUS | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.10%EV -2.84%E -1.69%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.90%EV -1.75%E -0.751%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-07-12 17:24 |
| FanDuel | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.36%EV -2.84%E -1.69%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.64%EV -4.70%E -2.08%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-11 18:04 |
| TAB | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -2.84%E -1.69%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -5.12%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-12 15:49 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -2.84%E -1.69%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -5.97%E -2.68%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-12 16:19 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -2.84%E -1.69%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -5.97%E -2.68%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-12 16:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -2.84%E -1.69%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -5.97%E -2.68%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-12 16:24 |
| Unibet | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -2.84%E -1.69%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -5.97%E -2.68%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-12 16:24 |
| Casumo | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -2.84%E -1.69%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -5.97%E -2.68%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-12 16:19 |
| betPARX | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -2.84%E -1.69%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -5.97%E -2.68%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-12 16:19 |
| Bally Bet | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -2.84%E -1.69%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -5.97%E -2.68%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-12 16:24 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -2.84%E -1.69%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -5.97%E -2.68%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-12 16:19 |
| PlayUp | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -2.84%E -1.69%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -7.23%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-12 12:40 |
| GTbets | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.66%EV -3.42%E -2.05%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 41.34%EV -0.062%E -0.026%K -0.045%G +0.000% | 2.1% | 2026-07-12 17:34 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.46%EV -3.42%E -2.05%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.54%EV -0.906%E -0.385%K -0.671%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-07-12 17:34 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.46%EV -3.42%E -2.05%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.54%EV -0.906%E -0.385%K -0.671%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-07-12 17:34 |
| BetAnything | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.35%EV -3.42%E -2.05%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.65%EV -1.33%E -0.567%K -0.991%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-07-12 17:29 |
| ReBet | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.42%E -2.05%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -3.01%E -1.31%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-07-12 15:44 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.61%EV -3.42%E -2.05%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.39%EV -4.28%E -1.89%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-12 15:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.42%E -2.05%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.12%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-12 16:39 |
| Neds | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.42%E -2.05%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.12%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-12 15:49 |
| William Hill | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.42%E -2.05%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.23%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-11 21:30 |
| BetRivers | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.42%E -2.05%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.23%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-12 15:14 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.42%E -2.05%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.23%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-12 15:14 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.42%E -2.05%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.23%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-12 15:14 |
| TABtouch | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.42%E -2.05%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.23%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-12 15:14 |
| SportsBet | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -4.00%E -2.41%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -5.97%E -2.68%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-12 05:39 |
| NordicBet | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.22%EV -4.00%E -2.41%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78%EV -6.39%E -2.88%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-12 15:44 |
| Betsson | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.22%EV -4.00%E -2.41%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78%EV -6.39%E -2.88%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-12 15:44 |
| Fanatics | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.58%E -2.77%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.01%E -1.31%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-12 16:49 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.58%E -2.77%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.01%E -1.31%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-12 17:19 |
| Caesars | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.58%E -2.77%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.01%E -1.31%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-12 15:44 |
| Coral | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.58%E -2.77%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.01%E -1.31%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-12 15:49 |
| BetMGM | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.58%E -2.77%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.01%E -1.31%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-12 16:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.58%E -2.77%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.01%E -1.31%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-12 16:39 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.58%E -2.77%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.01%E -1.31%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-12 17:29 |
| Bovada | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.58%E -2.77%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.01%E -1.31%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-12 17:34 |
| Bet Right | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.80%EV -4.58%E -2.77%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.20%EV -4.70%E -2.08%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-12 15:49 |
| Fliff | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.58%E -2.77%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.12%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-12 17:04 |
| 888sport | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.58%E -2.77%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.12%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-12 01:10 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.58%E -2.77%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.12%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-12 01:10 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.58%E -2.77%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.12%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-12 01:10 |
| Coolbet | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.58%E -2.77%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.12%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-12 15:49 |
| LeoVegas | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.58%E -2.77%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.12%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-12 15:44 |
| Bet Victor | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.58%E -2.77%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.23%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-12 17:27 |
| betano_uk | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.58%E -2.77%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.23%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-12 17:32 |
| DraftKings | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.27%EV -5.16%E -3.14%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.73%EV -3.44%E -1.50%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-12 15:44 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.95%EV -5.16%E -3.14%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%EV -4.70%E -2.08%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-12 17:29 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.16%E -3.14%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.12%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-12 17:24 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.16%E -3.14%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.12%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-12 15:49 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.16%E -3.14%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.12%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-12 15:44 |
| Grosvenor | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.96%EV -5.16%E -3.14%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.04%EV -8.50%E -3.92%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-12 16:24 |
| Betway | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.31%E -3.90%K -10.18%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.12%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-12 17:33 |
| BoyleSports | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.31%E -3.90%K -10.18%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.12%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-12 15:44 |
| Paddy Power | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.31%E -3.90%K -10.18%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.23%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-12 15:09 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.31%E -3.90%K -10.18%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.23%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-12 15:44 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.52%EV -6.89%E -4.28%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.48%EV -8.07%E -3.70%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-12 17:10 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.47%E -4.67%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.01%E -1.31%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-12 15:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (10)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.39% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.61% | 0.1% | 2026-07-12 17:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.72I 58.14%NM 58.05% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.95% | 0.2% | 2026-07-12 17:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.72I 58.14%NM 58.05% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.95% | 0.2% | 2026-07-12 17:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.72I 58.14%NM 58.05% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.95% | 0.2% | 2026-07-12 17:35 |
| Matchbook | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46% | 0.5% | 2026-07-12 17:34 |
| Novig | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81% | 0.5% | 2026-07-12 16:40 |
| ProphetX | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32% | 0.8% | 2026-07-12 17:29 |
| Polymarket | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47% | 1.1% | 2026-07-11 23:35 |
| Kalshi | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52% | 1.2% | 2026-07-12 13:49 |
| Smarkets | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.42% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.58% | 1.9% | 2026-07-12 17:24 |