The School of Odds

Baltimore Orioles v Kansas City Royals

2026-07-11 23:06 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Baltimore Orioles (Local)

Prediction 58.48%1.71fair odd
EV -0.589%
Edge -0.346%
Kelly -0.841%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.69%58.46%58.48%59.05%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.561.631.621.7064%61%62%59%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Kansas City Royals (Visit)

Prediction 41.52%2.41fair odd
EV -2.42%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.95%41.54%41.52%42.31%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.152.282.302.3547%44%43%43%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet1.70I 58.82%NM 57.71%EV -0.589%E -0.346%K -0.841%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.29%EV -3.67%E -1.58%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-10 17:58
BetOnline.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 57.75%EV -1.17%E -0.695%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 42.25%EV -4.08%E -1.77%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-10 18:49
LowVig.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 57.75%EV -1.17%E -0.695%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 42.25%EV -4.08%E -1.77%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-10 18:55
theScore Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.51%E -2.13%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.42%E -1.03%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-10 18:19
Fanatics1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.51%E -2.13%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.50%E -1.96%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-10 17:44
Fliff1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.51%E -2.13%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.57%E -2.92%K -5.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-10 17:45
PointsBet (AU)1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -4.68%E -2.87%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -2.42%E -1.03%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-10 17:45
FanDuel1.63I 61.35%NM 58.94%EV -4.68%E -2.87%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.06%EV -2.84%E -1.21%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-10 17:45
PlayUp1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.68%E -2.87%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.50%E -1.96%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 18:59
Bet Right1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.27%E -3.25%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.67%E -1.58%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 17:54
Unibet (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.27%E -3.25%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.50%E -1.96%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-10 17:44
888sport1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.27%E -3.25%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.50%E -1.96%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-10 17:55
Betr (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.27%E -3.25%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.50%E -1.96%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-10 17:54
888sport (SE)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.27%E -3.25%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.50%E -1.96%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-10 17:54
Mr Green (SE)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.27%E -3.25%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.50%E -1.96%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-10 17:54
Betclic (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.25%EV -5.27%E -3.25%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.75%EV -6.16%E -2.72%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-10 17:47
Winamax (DE)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.27%E -3.25%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.57%E -2.92%K -5.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-10 17:54
Bet Victor1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.85%E -3.63%K -9.59%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.57%E -2.92%K -5.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-10 17:47
Paddy Power1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.44%E -4.02%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.50%E -1.96%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-10 17:44
SportsBet1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -6.44%E -4.02%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -5.33%E -2.34%K -4.16%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-10 17:44
ReBet1.59I 62.89%NM 58.05%EV -7.02%E -4.42%K -11.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.95%EV -8.65%E -3.93%K -7.21%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-10 17:49
Unibet (FR)1.57I 63.69%NM 57.80%EV -8.19%E -5.22%K -14.37%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.20%EV -10.73%E -4.99%K -9.33%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-10 17:49
Winamax (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 57.95%EV -8.78%E -5.63%K -15.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -10.73%E -4.99%K -9.33%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-10 17:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is the most recent time we recorded each book's price — on the default model, when it last changed, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-07-10 17:45
Kalshi1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.2%2026-07-10 19:15
Smarkets1.57I 63.69%NM 57.91%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.09%10.0%2026-07-10 17:50