Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Baltimore Orioles v Cleveland Guardians

2026-09-08 22:36 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

41 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Baltimore Orioles (Local)

Predicción 53.17%1.88momio equitativo
EV -0.566%
Ventaja -0.303%
Kelly -0.651%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.87

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.17%53.17%53.25%54.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.701.781.781.8758.82%56.03%56.18%53.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Cleveland Guardians (Visitante)

Predicción 46.83%2.14momio equitativo
EV -0.727%
Ventaja -0.343%
Kelly -0.649%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.12

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
45.03%46.83%46.75%47.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.922.042.052.1252.08%49.13%48.78%47.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Baltimore Orioles (Local): 53.17%; Cleveland Guardians (Visitante): 46.83%. Para Baltimore Orioles (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 1.88. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 1.87, con un valor esperado de -0.566%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (41 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
GTbets🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 52.30%EV -0.566%E -0.303%K -0.651%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.70%EV -4.00%E -1.95%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-07 18:20
BetUS🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 52.30%EV -0.566%E -0.303%K -0.651%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.70%EV -4.00%E -1.95%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-07 19:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 52.17%EV -0.566%E -0.303%K -0.651%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.83%EV -4.47%E -2.19%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.5%2026-09-07 17:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 52.17%EV -0.566%E -0.303%K -0.651%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.83%EV -4.47%E -2.19%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.5%2026-09-07 17:34
1xBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 52.67%EV -1.10%E -0.590%K -1.28%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 47.33%EV -3.07%E -1.48%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.1%2026-09-07 18:30
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.34%EV -2.69%E -1.47%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.66%EV -5.88%E -2.92%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-07 19:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.69%E -1.47%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.35%E -3.17%K -6.35%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-07 18:40
Caesars🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.81%EV -3.22%E -1.77%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.19%EV -0.727%E -0.343%K -0.649%G +0.000%2.1%2026-09-07 20:28
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.29%E -2.38%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.00%E -1.95%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-07 19:40
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.29%E -2.38%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.00%E -1.95%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-07 18:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.29%E -2.38%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.00%E -1.95%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-07 18:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.29%E -2.38%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.00%E -1.95%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-07 19:05
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.29%E -2.38%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.00%E -1.95%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-07 19:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%EV -4.29%E -2.38%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87%EV -4.47%E -2.19%K -4.30%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-07 19:40
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.29%E -2.38%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.41%E -2.68%K -5.30%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 19:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.29%E -2.38%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.41%E -2.68%K -5.30%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 19:05
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.29%E -2.38%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.35%E -3.17%K -6.35%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-07 18:25
Fliff🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.29%E -2.38%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.35%E -3.17%K -6.35%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-07 17:34
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -4.29%E -2.38%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -7.75%E -3.93%K -7.99%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-07 18:25
Coolbet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -5.35%E -3.01%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.00%E -1.95%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-07 18:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.03%EV -5.35%E -3.01%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 46.97%EV -5.88%E -2.92%K -5.82%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-07 19:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.35%E -3.01%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -6.35%E -3.17%K -6.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-07 19:39
Bet Right🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -5.88%E -3.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -3.54%E -1.72%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-07 20:35
betfred_uk🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.88%E -3.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.00%E -1.95%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-07 19:40
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.88%E -3.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.00%E -1.95%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-07 19:40
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.88%E -3.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.00%E -1.95%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-07 19:05
FanDuel🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -6.42%E -3.65%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -0.727%E -0.343%K -0.649%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-07 17:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -6.42%E -3.65%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -4.00%E -1.95%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-07 18:25
Bovada🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.66%EV -6.95%E -3.97%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.34%EV -1.20%E -0.567%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-07 18:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -6.95%E -3.97%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -1.66%E -0.792%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-07 20:05
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.95%E -3.97%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.00%E -1.95%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-07 18:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.95%E -3.97%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.00%E -1.95%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-07 18:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.95%E -3.97%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.00%E -1.95%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-07 18:25
betano_uk🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.95%E -3.97%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.35%E -3.17%K -6.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-07 18:24
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.95%E -3.97%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.35%E -3.17%K -6.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-07 18:24
LeoVegas🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.08%EV -6.95%E -3.97%K -9.26%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.92%EV -7.28%E -3.68%K -7.43%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-07 20:35
ReBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -7.48%E -4.30%K -10.11%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -8.69%E -4.46%K -9.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-07 19:40
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -8.01%E -4.63%K -10.97%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -1.66%E -0.792%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-07 17:33
SportsBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -8.54%E -4.97%K -11.86%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -1.66%E -0.792%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-07 17:33
Unibet (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.88%EV -8.54%E -4.97%K -11.86%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.12%EV -9.62%E -4.99%K -10.35%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-07 19:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -9.61%E -5.65%K -13.72%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.96%EV -10.09%E -5.26%K -10.97%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-07 19:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-09-07 19:10
Polymarket1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-09-07 18:55
Novig1.83I 54.64%NM 53.55%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.45%2.0%2026-09-07 20:30
Smarkets1.72I 58.14%NM 52.88%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.12%10.0%2026-09-07 19:40