L’École des cotes

Baltimore Orioles v Chicago Cubs

Coup d’envoi : 2026-07-07 23:31 UTC

Score final : Baltimore Orioles 2–5 Chicago Cubs

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

53 opérateurs (17 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Baltimore Orioles (Local)

Prévision 49.39%2.02cote équitable
EV -1.22%
Avantage -0.612%
Kelly -1.22%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
47.37%49.29%49.21%50.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.881.941.952.0053.19%51.57%51.28%50.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Chicago Cubs (Visiteur)

Prévision 50.61%1.98cote équitable
EV -0.801%
Avantage -0.409%
Kelly -0.834%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.96

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
50.00%50.71%50.79%52.63%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.761.871.871.9656.82%53.38%53.48%51.02%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (53 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
Unibet (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -1.22%E -0.612%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -6.37%E -3.44%K -7.49%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-07 23:25
Fliff2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -1.22%E -0.612%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -8.90%E -4.94%K -11.12%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-07 23:25
BetAnything1.98I 50.51%NM 49.36%EV -2.21%E -1.12%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.64%EV -2.32%E -1.20%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-07 23:25
Everygame1.97I 50.76%NM 49.49%EV -2.71%E -1.37%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.51%EV -2.32%E -1.20%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-07 22:20
Unibet (NL)1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -2.71%E -1.37%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -6.37%E -3.44%K -7.49%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-07 23:25
Unibet (SE)1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -2.71%E -1.37%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -6.37%E -3.44%K -7.49%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-07 23:25
Svenska Spel1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -2.71%E -1.37%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -6.37%E -3.44%K -7.49%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-07 23:25
1xBet1.96I 51.02%NM 50.00%EV -3.20%E -1.63%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.00%EV -0.801%E -0.409%K -0.834%G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-07 22:15
Pinnacle1.96I 51.02%NM 50.00%EV -3.20%E -1.63%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.00%EV -0.801%E -0.409%K -0.834%G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-07 22:50
FanDuel1.96I 51.02%NM 49.09%EV -3.20%E -1.63%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.91%EV -4.34%E -2.30%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-07 22:50
Unibet1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -3.20%E -1.63%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -6.37%E -3.44%K -7.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-07 23:25
Casumo1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -3.20%E -1.63%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -6.37%E -3.44%K -7.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-07 23:25
LeoVegas (SE)1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -3.20%E -1.63%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -6.37%E -3.44%K -7.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-07 23:25
betPARX1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -3.20%E -1.63%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -6.37%E -3.44%K -7.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-07 23:25
Bally Bet1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -3.20%E -1.63%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -6.37%E -3.44%K -7.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-07 23:25
ATG (SE)1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -3.20%E -1.63%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -6.37%E -3.44%K -7.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-07 23:25
LiveScore Bet1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%EV -3.20%E -1.63%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%EV -6.87%E -3.74%K -8.18%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-07 23:25
Virgin Bet1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%EV -3.20%E -1.63%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%EV -6.87%E -3.74%K -8.18%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-07 23:25
Winamax (DE)1.96I 51.02%NM 48.15%EV -3.20%E -1.63%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.85%EV -7.89%E -4.33%K -9.62%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-07 23:25
LowVig.ag1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -3.69%E -1.89%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -1.31%E -0.670%K -1.38%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-07 23:15
BetOnline.ag1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -3.69%E -1.89%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -1.31%E -0.670%K -1.38%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-07 23:15
GTbets1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -3.69%E -1.89%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -1.31%E -0.670%K -1.38%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-07 23:15
BetUS1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -3.69%E -1.89%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -1.31%E -0.670%K -1.38%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-07 23:15
Hard Rock Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.69%E -1.89%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.36%E -2.86%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-06 19:59
Caesars1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.69%E -1.89%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.36%E -2.86%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-07 14:45
theScore Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.69%E -1.89%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.36%E -2.86%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-07 15:15
BetRivers1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -3.69%E -1.89%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -7.38%E -4.03%K -8.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-07 23:25
TABtouch1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -3.69%E -1.89%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -7.38%E -4.03%K -8.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-07 23:25
Bet Right1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -4.19%E -2.16%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -4.85%E -2.58%K -5.51%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-07 22:29
DraftKings1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -4.19%E -2.16%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -4.85%E -2.58%K -5.51%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-07 19:30
SportsBet1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -4.19%E -2.16%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -5.86%E -3.15%K -6.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-07 22:50
Betr (AU)1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.68%E -2.43%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.85%E -2.58%K -5.51%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-07 22:29
LeoVegas1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -4.68%E -2.43%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -7.38%E -4.03%K -8.89%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-07 23:25
Grosvenor1.93I 51.81%NM 48.53%EV -4.68%E -2.43%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.47%EV -7.89%E -4.33%K -9.62%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-07 23:25
Bovada1.92I 52.08%NM 49.74%EV -5.17%E -2.70%K -5.62%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.26%EV -3.84%E -2.02%K -4.26%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-07 22:40
Coolbet1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -5.17%E -2.70%K -5.62%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -4.34%E -2.30%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-07 22:29
NordicBet1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -5.17%E -2.70%K -5.62%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.85%E -2.58%K -5.51%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-07 23:30
Betsson1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -5.17%E -2.70%K -5.62%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.85%E -2.58%K -5.51%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-07 23:30
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.67%E -2.97%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.33%E -1.74%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-07 22:20
BetMGM1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.67%E -2.97%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.33%E -1.74%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-07 22:13
Coral1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.67%E -2.97%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.33%E -1.74%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-07 22:10
Ladbrokes (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.67%E -2.97%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.33%E -1.74%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-07 22:14
888sport1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.67%E -2.97%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.37%E -3.44%K -7.49%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-07 14:44
Mr Green (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.67%E -2.97%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.37%E -3.44%K -7.49%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-07 14:45
888sport (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.67%E -2.97%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.37%E -3.44%K -7.49%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-07 14:44
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -5.67%E -2.97%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.38%E -4.03%K -8.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-07 22:50
PointsBet (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.16%E -3.24%K -6.85%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.84%E -2.02%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-07 14:44
Neds1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.16%E -3.24%K -6.85%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.84%E -2.02%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-07 22:10
Ladbrokes (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.16%E -3.24%K -6.85%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.84%E -2.02%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-07 22:10
Marathon Bet1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.16%E -3.24%K -6.85%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.84%E -2.02%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-07 22:09
TAB1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -6.16%E -3.24%K -6.85%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV -5.36%E -2.86%K -6.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-07 23:30
Betclic (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -6.16%E -3.24%K -6.85%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -8.90%E -4.94%K -11.12%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-07 23:25
Winamax (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 48.35%EV -7.15%E -3.80%K -8.13%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.65%EV -10.92%E -6.21%K -14.37%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-07 23:25
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (9)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Polymarket2.01I 49.75%NM 49.62%1.98I 50.51%NM 50.38%0.3%2026-07-07 23:25
Novig2.00I 50.00%NM 49.75%1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25%0.5%2026-07-07 23:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75%0.5%2026-07-07 23:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-07-07 23:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-07-07 23:30
Matchbook1.97I 50.76%NM 50.00%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.00%1.5%2026-07-07 23:25
ProphetX2.01I 49.75%NM 48.98%1.93I 51.81%NM 51.02%1.6%2026-07-07 23:30
Kalshi1.96I 51.02%NM 50.00%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.00%2.0%2026-07-07 23:15
Smarkets1.85I 54.05%NM 49.45%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.55%9.3%2026-07-07 23:29