Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Atlanta Braves v Washington Nationals

2026-08-02 17:36 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Atlanta Braves (Local)

Predicción 53.43%1.87momio equitativo
EV -0.611%
Ventaja -0.329%
Kelly -0.711%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.86

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.63%53.53%53.37%55.38%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.661.771.771.8660.24%56.37%56.50%53.76%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Washington Nationals (Visitante)

Predicción 46.57%2.15momio equitativo
EV -1.28%
Ventaja -0.605%
Kelly -1.14%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.12

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.62%46.47%46.63%47.37%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.962.062.052.1251.02%48.57%48.78%47.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Atlanta Braves (Local): 53.43%; Washington Nationals (Visitante): 46.57%. Para Atlanta Braves (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 1.87. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 1.86, con un valor esperado de -0.611%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
1xBet1.86I 53.76%NM 52.67%EV -0.611%E -0.329%K -0.711%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 47.33%EV -3.61%E -1.74%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-01 18:23
FanDuel1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -2.21%E -1.21%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-01 23:05
Hard Rock Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -2.21%E -1.21%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-01 22:35
GTbets1.82I 54.95%NM 53.81%EV -2.75%E -1.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.19%EV -1.28%E -0.605%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-01 18:29
BetOnline.ag1.82I 54.95%NM 53.69%EV -2.75%E -1.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.31%EV -1.75%E -0.828%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-01 18:09
LowVig.ag1.82I 54.95%NM 53.69%EV -2.75%E -1.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.31%EV -1.75%E -0.828%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-01 18:10
Pinnacle1.81I 55.25%NM 53.83%EV -3.28%E -1.81%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.17%EV -1.75%E -0.828%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-01 22:35
Betway1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.82%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.54%E -2.22%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 20:45
PointsBet (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.82%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.54%E -2.22%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 18:44
Caesars1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.82%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.54%E -2.22%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 20:44
Coral1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.82%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.54%E -2.22%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 21:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.82%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.54%E -2.22%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 21:29
BetMGM1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.82%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.54%E -2.22%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 23:04
PlayUp1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.82%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.94%E -2.94%K -5.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 21:29
Neds1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.82%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.94%E -2.94%K -5.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 21:29
Ladbrokes (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.82%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.94%E -2.94%K -5.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 21:30
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.82%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.87%E -3.43%K -6.87%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-01 18:09
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.82%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.87%E -3.43%K -6.87%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-01 18:39
Bovada1.79I 55.87%NM 53.51%EV -4.35%E -2.43%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.49%EV -4.08%E -1.98%K -3.85%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-01 23:04
Betsson1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.35%E -2.43%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.94%E -2.94%K -5.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 21:28
NordicBet1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.35%E -2.43%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.94%E -2.94%K -5.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 21:28
Bet Right1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.89%E -2.74%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.54%E -2.22%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-01 23:14
Unibet (UK)1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -4.89%E -2.74%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -5.01%E -2.45%K -4.81%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-01 23:09
Winamax (DE)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -4.89%E -2.74%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -6.87%E -3.43%K -6.87%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-01 20:44
theScore Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.42%E -3.06%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-01 22:45
Fliff1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.42%E -3.06%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.54%E -2.22%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 21:34
Betclic (FR)1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -5.42%E -3.06%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -5.94%E -2.94%K -5.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-01 23:12
ReBet1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.42%E -3.06%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.87%E -3.43%K -6.87%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-01 20:45
BetRivers1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -5.95%E -3.38%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-01 23:09
LeoVegas (SE)1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -5.95%E -3.38%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-01 23:05
Unibet (SE)1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -5.95%E -3.38%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-01 23:05
Unibet (NL)1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -5.95%E -3.38%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-01 23:05
Unibet1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -5.95%E -3.38%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-01 23:05
Casumo1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -5.95%E -3.38%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-01 23:04
ATG (SE)1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -5.95%E -3.38%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-01 23:05
Svenska Spel1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -5.95%E -3.38%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-01 23:05
betPARX1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -5.95%E -3.38%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-01 23:05
Bally Bet1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -5.95%E -3.38%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-01 23:05
SportsBet1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.95%E -3.38%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -4.54%E -2.22%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-01 23:04
Betr (AU)1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.95%E -3.38%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -4.54%E -2.22%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-01 23:14
888sport1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.49%E -3.71%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.54%E -2.22%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 23:04
Tipico (DE)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.49%E -3.71%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.54%E -2.22%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 21:39
888sport (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.49%E -3.71%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.54%E -2.22%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 23:05
Mr Green (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.49%E -3.71%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.54%E -2.22%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 23:05
Bet Victor1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.49%E -3.71%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.87%E -3.43%K -6.87%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-01 20:48
betano_uk1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.49%E -3.71%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.87%E -3.43%K -6.87%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-01 20:45
Winamax (FR)1.74I 57.47%NM 52.97%EV -7.02%E -4.04%K -9.49%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.03%EV -8.73%E -4.46%K -9.10%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-01 20:49
Unibet (FR)1.73I 57.80%NM 53.12%EV -7.56%E -4.37%K -10.35%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.88%EV -8.73%E -4.46%K -9.10%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-01 23:09
Virgin Bet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -8.09%E -4.70%K -11.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-01 23:05
LiveScore Bet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -8.09%E -4.70%K -11.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-01 23:05
TABtouch1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -8.09%E -4.70%K -11.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-01 23:05
Grosvenor1.66I 60.24%NM 55.38%EV -11.30%E -6.81%K -17.12%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.62%EV -4.08%E -1.98%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-01 23:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
BetOpenly1.87I 53.48%NM 53.48%2.15I 46.51%NM 46.52%-0.0%2026-08-01 22:30
Polymarket1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-08-01 21:45
Kalshi1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-08-01 23:10
Novig1.83I 54.64%NM 53.79%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.21%1.6%2026-08-01 23:10
Matchbook1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%3.2%2026-08-01 22:30
Smarkets1.71I 58.48%NM 53.15%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.85%10.0%2026-08-01 23:10