Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Atlanta Braves v New York Mets

2026-08-10 23:15 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Atlanta Braves (Local)

Predicción 58.08%1.72momio equitativo
EV -1.26%
Ventaja -0.744%
Kelly -1.81%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
57.14%58.15%58.03%59.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.561.641.651.7064.10%60.89%60.61%58.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

New York Mets (Visitante)

Predicción 41.92%2.39momio equitativo
EV +1.87%
Ventaja +0.768%
Kelly +1.31%
Crecimiento +0.024%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.43

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.44%41.85%41.97%42.86%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.102.282.272.4347.62%43.95%43.96%41.15%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Atlanta Braves (Local): 58.08%; New York Mets (Visitante): 41.92%. Para New York Mets (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.39. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.43, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +1.87%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Caesars🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.56%EV -4.17%E -2.53%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 40.44%EV +1.87%E +0.768%K +1.31%G +0.024%1.8%2026-08-09 19:24
GTbets🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.66%EV -3.01%E -1.80%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 41.34%EV -0.649%E -0.274%K -0.474%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-09 18:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -6.49%E -4.03%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -0.649%E -0.274%K -0.474%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-09 20:50
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -6.49%E -4.03%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -0.649%E -0.274%K -0.474%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-09 20:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.56%EV -3.01%E -1.80%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.44%EV -1.07%E -0.453%K -0.785%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-09 18:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.56%EV -3.01%E -1.80%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.44%EV -1.07%E -0.453%K -0.785%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-09 18:09
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 58.17%EV -1.85%E -1.09%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.83%EV -1.49%E -0.633%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.7%2026-08-09 21:24
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.91%E -3.65%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -1.49%E -0.633%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-09 20:50
BetUS🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.35%EV -3.01%E -1.80%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.65%EV -1.91%E -0.815%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-09 19:10
Pinnacle🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 58.00%EV -2.43%E -1.44%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.00%EV -2.75%E -1.18%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-09 21:25
1xBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 57.61%EV -1.26%E -0.744%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 42.39%EV -3.16%E -1.37%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-09 19:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.01%E -1.80%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -3.58%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-09 19:19
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.01%E -1.80%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -3.58%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-09 21:04
Unibet (NL)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.17%E -2.53%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.58%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-09 20:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.17%E -2.53%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.58%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-09 20:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.17%E -2.53%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.58%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-09 20:25
BetRivers🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.17%E -2.53%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.58%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-09 20:30
TAB🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.17%E -2.53%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.58%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-09 20:34
DraftKings🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -4.75%E -2.90%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -3.58%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-09 18:09
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.91%E -3.65%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.58%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 18:30
Unibet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -4.17%E -2.53%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -4.42%E -1.94%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-09 20:25
Casumo🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -4.17%E -2.53%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -4.42%E -1.94%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-09 20:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -4.17%E -2.53%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -4.42%E -1.94%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-09 20:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -4.17%E -2.53%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -4.42%E -1.94%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-09 20:25
Bally Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -4.17%E -2.53%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -4.42%E -1.94%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-09 20:25
betPARX🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -4.17%E -2.53%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -4.42%E -1.94%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-09 20:25
Bet Right🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -4.75%E -2.90%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -4.42%E -1.94%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-09 19:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.06%EV -4.75%E -2.90%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.94%EV -4.84%E -2.13%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-09 19:25
NordicBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -5.33%E -3.27%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -4.84%E -2.13%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-09 19:14
Betsson🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -5.33%E -3.27%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -4.84%E -2.13%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-09 19:15
FanDuel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.36%EV -2.43%E -1.44%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.64%EV -5.26%E -2.33%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-09 19:15
Bovada🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.51%EV -3.01%E -1.80%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.49%EV -5.26%E -2.33%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-09 19:24
Fliff🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.17%E -2.53%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.68%E -2.52%K -4.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-09 18:10
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.17%E -2.53%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.68%E -2.52%K -4.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-09 19:25
888sport🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.17%E -2.53%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.68%E -2.52%K -4.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-09 19:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.17%E -2.53%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.68%E -2.52%K -4.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-09 19:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.17%E -2.53%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.68%E -2.52%K -4.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-09 19:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.75%E -2.90%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.68%E -2.52%K -4.54%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-09 19:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.75%E -2.90%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.68%E -2.52%K -4.54%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-09 20:50
Neds🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.75%E -2.90%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.68%E -2.52%K -4.54%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-09 20:50
TABtouch🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.75%E -2.90%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.68%E -2.52%K -4.54%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-09 20:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.33%E -3.27%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.68%E -2.52%K -4.54%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-09 19:23
Winamax (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.91%E -3.65%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.68%E -2.52%K -4.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-09 18:15
Bet Victor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.49%E -4.03%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -5.68%E -2.52%K -4.54%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-09 18:11
Marathon Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -4.17%E -2.53%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -6.10%E -2.72%K -4.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 19:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -5.91%E -3.65%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -6.52%E -2.92%K -5.30%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-09 20:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -5.91%E -3.65%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -6.52%E -2.92%K -5.30%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-09 20:25
SportsBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.17%E -2.53%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.78%E -3.53%K -6.48%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-09 19:15
Paddy Power🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.17%E -2.53%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.78%E -3.53%K -6.48%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-09 19:15
LeoVegas🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.91%E -3.65%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.78%E -3.53%K -6.48%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 21:44
ReBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.49%E -4.03%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.78%E -3.53%K -6.48%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-09 19:20
Grosvenor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -8.81%E -5.61%K -15.46%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -7.78%E -3.53%K -6.48%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-09 20:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.64%EV -8.23%E -5.21%K -14.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -9.87%E -4.59%K -8.58%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-09 19:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.38%EV -9.40%E -6.02%K -16.78%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -11.97%E -5.70%K -10.88%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-09 19:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.2%2026-08-09 22:30
Kalshi1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.2%2026-08-09 21:10
Polymarket1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.2%2026-08-09 21:05
ProphetX1.68I 59.52%NM 58.62%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.38%1.5%2026-08-09 22:35
Smarkets1.59I 62.89%NM 57.60%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.40%9.2%2026-08-09 22:25
Arbitraje (1 combinación) +0.02%1xBet 1.70 (58.8%) / Caesars 2.43 (41.2%)Ver detalles
Atlanta Braves (Local)New York Mets (Visitante)Margen
1xBet🎯 1.70 (58.8%)Caesars🎯 2.43 (41.2%)+0.024%