Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Arizona Diamondbacks v San Diego Padres

2026-08-04 01:41 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

65 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Arizona Diamondbacks (Local)

Predicción 50.04%2.00momio equitativo
EV +1.07%
Ventaja +0.531%
Kelly +1.05%
Crecimiento +0.011%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.02

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.12%50.23%50.00%51.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.831.901.912.0254.64%52.52%52.36%49.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

San Diego Padres (Visitante)

Predicción 49.96%2.00momio equitativo
EV +0.928%
Ventaja +0.459%
Kelly +0.910%
Crecimiento +0.008%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.02

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.21%49.77%50.00%52.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.801.921.912.0255.56%52.20%52.36%49.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Arizona Diamondbacks (Local): 50.04%; San Diego Padres (Visitante): 49.96%. Para Arizona Diamondbacks (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.00. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.02, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +1.07%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (65 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Dabble (AU)2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV +1.07%E +0.531%K +1.05%G +0.011%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -10.06%E -5.59%K -12.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-03 03:00
FanDuel1.96I 51.02%NM 50.00%EV -1.93%E -0.985%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.00%EV -2.07%E -1.06%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-03 03:30
Caesars1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -2.43%E -1.25%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -2.57%E -1.32%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-03 03:54
Hard Rock Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -2.43%E -1.25%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -2.57%E -1.32%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-03 03:30
Unibet (SE)1.93I 51.81%NM 49.87%EV -3.43%E -1.78%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.13%EV -4.07%E -2.12%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-03 03:39
Unibet (NL)1.93I 51.81%NM 49.87%EV -3.43%E -1.78%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.13%EV -4.07%E -2.12%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-03 03:39
BetRivers1.93I 51.81%NM 49.87%EV -3.43%E -1.78%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.13%EV -4.07%E -2.12%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-03 03:39
Svenska Spel1.93I 51.81%NM 49.87%EV -3.43%E -1.78%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.13%EV -4.07%E -2.12%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-03 03:39
Tipico (DE)1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -3.43%E -1.78%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -7.57%E -4.09%K -8.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-03 02:40
MyBookie.ag1.92I 52.08%NM 50.13%EV -3.93%E -2.05%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.87%EV -3.57%E -1.85%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-03 04:25
TAB1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -3.93%E -2.05%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -4.07%E -2.12%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-03 03:29
LeoVegas (SE)1.92I 52.08%NM 49.87%EV -3.93%E -2.05%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.13%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-03 03:39
Casumo1.92I 52.08%NM 49.87%EV -3.93%E -2.05%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.13%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-03 03:39
Unibet1.92I 52.08%NM 49.87%EV -3.93%E -2.05%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.13%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-03 03:39
Bally Bet1.92I 52.08%NM 49.87%EV -3.93%E -2.05%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.13%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-03 03:38
ATG (SE)1.92I 52.08%NM 49.87%EV -3.93%E -2.05%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.13%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-03 03:39
betPARX1.92I 52.08%NM 49.87%EV -3.93%E -2.05%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.13%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-03 03:39
1xBet1.91I 52.36%NM 51.28%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 48.72%EV +0.428%E +0.213%K +0.424%G +0.002%2.1%2026-08-03 04:44
BetOnline.ag1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV -0.071%E -0.036%K -0.071%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-03 03:54
LowVig.ag1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV -0.071%E -0.036%K -0.071%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-03 03:54
GTbets1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV -0.071%E -0.036%K -0.071%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-03 03:54
BetUS1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV -0.071%E -0.036%K -0.071%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-03 03:54
Everygame1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV -0.071%E -0.036%K -0.071%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-03 03:14
888sport1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-03 03:25
Coolbet1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-03 04:05
Bet Right1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-03 04:04
Mr Green (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-03 03:24
888sport (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-03 03:25
Coral1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-03 02:10
BetMGM1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-03 02:09
Ladbrokes (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-03 02:09
theScore Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-03 04:25
William Hill1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 20:54
Betway1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-03 02:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-03 03:29
LiveScore Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -5.07%E -2.67%K -5.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-03 03:39
Virgin Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -5.07%E -2.67%K -5.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-03 03:39
LeoVegas1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -5.07%E -2.67%K -5.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-03 02:30
TABtouch1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -5.57%E -2.95%K -6.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 03:39
Fliff1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -6.57%E -3.51%K -7.55%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-03 04:00
DraftKings1.90I 52.63%NM 50.26%EV -4.93%E -2.60%K -5.48%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.74%EV -4.07%E -2.12%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-03 04:25
Unibet (UK)1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -4.93%E -2.60%K -5.48%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-03 04:25
PlayUp1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -4.93%E -2.60%K -5.48%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-03 04:25
Paddy Power1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.93%E -2.60%K -5.48%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.07%E -2.67%K -5.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 19:00
SportsBet1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.93%E -2.60%K -5.48%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.07%E -2.67%K -5.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 03:30
PointsBet (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.93%E -2.60%K -5.48%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.07%E -2.67%K -5.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 19:20
Betr (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.93%E -2.60%K -5.48%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.07%E -2.67%K -5.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 04:04
Ladbrokes (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.93%E -2.60%K -5.48%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.07%E -2.67%K -5.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 02:10
Neds1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.93%E -2.60%K -5.48%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.07%E -2.67%K -5.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 02:10
Winamax (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.93%E -2.60%K -5.48%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.07%E -2.67%K -5.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 04:24
Betsson1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -5.43%E -2.87%K -6.10%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 04:30
NordicBet1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -5.43%E -2.87%K -6.10%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 04:29
Betclic (FR)1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -5.43%E -2.87%K -6.10%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -5.57%E -2.95%K -6.26%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-03 04:23
Pinnacle1.88I 53.19%NM 51.79%EV -5.93%E -3.16%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.21%EV +0.928%E +0.459%K +0.910%G +0.008%2.7%2026-08-03 04:50
Fanatics1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -6.43%E -3.44%K -7.39%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -2.57%E -1.32%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-03 04:48
ReBet1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.43%E -3.44%K -7.39%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.57%E -3.51%K -7.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-03 04:25
Bet Victor1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.43%E -3.44%K -7.39%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.57%E -3.51%K -7.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-03 02:23
betano_uk1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.43%E -3.44%K -7.39%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.57%E -3.51%K -7.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-03 02:19
BoyleSports1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.43%E -3.44%K -7.39%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.57%E -3.51%K -7.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-03 02:49
Bovada1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -7.43%E -4.02%K -8.75%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -1.07%E -0.541%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-03 04:42
BetAnything1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -7.43%E -4.02%K -8.75%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -1.07%E -0.541%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-03 04:39
Marathon Bet1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -7.43%E -4.02%K -8.75%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -2.57%E -1.32%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 04:40
Winamax (FR)1.84I 54.35%NM 50.00%EV -7.93%E -4.31%K -9.45%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.00%EV -8.07%E -4.38%K -9.60%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-03 02:20
Unibet (FR)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.14%EV -8.43%E -4.61%K -10.16%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.86%EV -8.07%E -4.38%K -9.60%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-03 04:24
Grosvenor1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -8.43%E -4.61%K -10.16%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -8.57%E -4.68%K -10.32%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-02 22:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (9)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25%0.5%2026-08-03 04:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25%0.5%2026-08-03 04:55
Polymarket1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.0%2026-08-03 03:25
ProphetX1.94I 51.55%NM 51.01%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.99%1.1%2026-08-03 04:50
Novig1.94I 51.55%NM 50.76%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.24%1.5%2026-08-03 04:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.94I 51.55%NM 50.76%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.24%1.5%2026-08-03 04:39
Smarkets1.94I 51.55%NM 50.64%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.36%1.8%2026-08-03 04:50
Kalshi1.96I 51.02%NM 50.00%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.00%2.0%2026-08-03 04:15
Matchbook1.92I 52.08%NM 50.64%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.36%2.8%2026-08-03 04:40
Arbitraje (7 combinaciones) +1.00%Dabble (AU) 2.02 (50.0%) / Pinnacle 2.02 (50.0%)Ver las 7 combinaciones
Arizona Diamondbacks (Local)San Diego Padres (Visitante)Margen
Dabble (AU) 2.02 (50.0%)Pinnacle 2.02 (50.0%)+1.00%
Dabble (AU) 2.02 (49.9%)1xBet 2.01 (50.1%)+0.749%
Dabble (AU) 2.02 (49.8%)BetOnline.ag 2.00 (50.2%)+0.498%
Dabble (AU) 2.02 (49.8%)LowVig.ag 2.00 (50.2%)+0.498%
Dabble (AU) 2.02 (49.8%)GTbets 2.00 (50.2%)+0.498%
Dabble (AU) 2.02 (49.8%)BetUS 2.00 (50.2%)+0.498%
Dabble (AU) 2.02 (49.8%)Everygame 2.00 (50.2%)+0.498%