Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Arizona Diamondbacks v Cincinnati Reds

2026-08-23 00:10 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

50 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Arizona Diamondbacks (Local)

Predicción 59.72%1.67momio equitativo
EV -1.46%
Ventaja -0.882%
Kelly -2.24%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.67%59.86%59.69%62.96%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.501.591.601.6566.67%62.81%62.50%60.61%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Cincinnati Reds (Visitante)

Predicción 40.28%2.48momio equitativo
EV +2.70%
Ventaja +1.06%
Kelly +1.74%
Crecimiento +0.047%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.04%40.14%40.31%41.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.252.382.382.5544.44%42.07%42.11%39.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Arizona Diamondbacks (Local): 59.72%; Cincinnati Reds (Visitante): 40.28%. Para Cincinnati Reds (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.48. 4 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.55, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +2.70%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -10.41%E -6.94%K -20.83%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +2.70%E +1.06%K +1.74%G +0.047%5.9%2026-08-22 00:04
FanDuel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.76%EV -6.83%E -4.38%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.24%EV +1.50%E +0.594%K +0.984%G +0.015%3.8%2026-08-22 00:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 60.68%EV -3.25%E -2.00%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.32%EV +0.691%E +0.276%K +0.461%G +0.003%1.7%2026-08-22 00:04
Bovada🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -7.43%E -4.79%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV +0.691%E +0.276%K +0.461%G +0.003%4.5%2026-08-22 00:04
SportsBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.00%EV -9.22%E -6.07%K -17.73%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.00%EV -0.115%E -0.046%K -0.077%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-22 00:04
1xBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 60.15%EV -2.65%E -1.63%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.85%EV -0.920%E -0.374%K -0.630%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-22 00:55
Caesars🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.56%EV -1.46%E -0.882%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 40.44%EV -2.13%E -0.876%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.8%2026-08-21 21:54
GTbets🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.46%EV -1.46%E -0.882%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.54%EV -2.53%E -1.05%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-21 21:55
Bet Right🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -6.23%E -3.97%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -2.53%E -1.05%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-22 00:55
Coolbet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -6.23%E -3.97%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -2.53%E -1.05%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-22 00:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%EV -1.46%E -0.882%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%EV -3.34%E -1.39%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-21 21:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%EV -1.46%E -0.882%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%EV -3.34%E -1.39%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-21 21:53
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -3.84%E -2.39%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -3.34%E -1.39%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-22 00:29
Betway🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.04%E -3.17%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -3.34%E -1.39%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-22 00:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.23%E -3.97%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.34%E -1.39%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-22 00:10
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.23%E -3.97%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.34%E -1.39%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-21 23:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.23%E -3.97%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.34%E -1.39%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-21 23:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.23%E -3.97%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.34%E -1.39%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-21 23:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -3.84%E -2.39%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -4.14%E -1.74%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-22 00:20
BetRivers🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -3.84%E -2.39%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -4.14%E -1.74%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-22 00:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -3.84%E -2.39%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -4.14%E -1.74%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-22 00:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -3.84%E -2.39%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -4.14%E -1.74%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-22 00:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -4.44%E -2.78%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -4.14%E -1.74%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-22 00:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -5.64%E -3.57%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -4.14%E -1.74%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-22 00:50
Bet Victor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.23%E -3.97%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.14%E -1.74%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 00:38
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.70%EV -4.44%E -2.78%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.30%EV -4.55%E -1.92%K -3.32%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-22 01:05
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.70%EV -4.44%E -2.78%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.30%EV -4.55%E -1.92%K -3.32%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-22 01:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -2.65%E -1.63%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -5.35%E -2.28%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-21 22:04
DraftKings🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.84%E -2.39%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -5.35%E -2.28%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-21 22:14
Fanatics🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.84%E -2.39%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -5.35%E -2.28%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-21 21:54
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.84%E -2.39%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -5.35%E -2.28%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-22 01:09
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.44%E -2.78%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.35%E -2.28%K -3.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 00:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.44%E -2.78%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.35%E -2.28%K -3.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 00:20
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.44%E -2.78%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.35%E -2.28%K -3.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 00:20
Unibet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.44%E -2.78%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.35%E -2.28%K -3.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 00:20
Casumo🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.44%E -2.78%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.35%E -2.28%K -3.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 00:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.44%E -2.78%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.35%E -2.28%K -3.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 00:20
Bally Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.44%E -2.78%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.35%E -2.28%K -3.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 00:20
betPARX🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.44%E -2.78%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.35%E -2.28%K -3.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 00:19
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.64%E -3.57%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -5.35%E -2.28%K -3.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-22 00:15
ReBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.23%E -3.97%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -5.35%E -2.28%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 00:37
Betclic (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.69%EV -5.64%E -3.57%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.31%EV -5.75%E -2.46%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-22 00:38
Virgin Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.49%EV -5.64%E -3.57%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -6.56%E -2.83%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-22 00:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.49%EV -5.64%E -3.57%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -6.56%E -2.83%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-22 00:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.25%E -2.00%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.36%E -3.20%K -5.66%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-22 01:05
Neds🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.25%E -2.00%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.36%E -3.20%K -5.66%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-22 01:05
Fliff🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -3.84%E -2.39%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -7.36%E -3.20%K -5.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 00:04
Grosvenor🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.69%EV -8.03%E -5.21%K -14.86%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.31%EV -8.17%E -3.58%K -6.38%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-22 00:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.37%EV -8.03%E -5.21%K -14.86%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -9.38%E -4.17%K -7.50%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-22 00:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.37%EV -8.03%E -5.21%K -14.86%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -9.38%E -4.17%K -7.50%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-22 00:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-08-21 22:30
Polymarket1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-08-22 00:04
Novig1.65I 60.61%NM 59.66%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.34%1.6%2026-08-22 01:05
Smarkets1.53I 65.36%NM 59.20%2.22I 45.05%NM 40.80%10.4%2026-08-22 00:40
Arbitraje (4 combinaciones) +0.18%GTbets 1.65 (60.7%) / Paddy Power 2.55 (39.3%)Ver las 4 combinaciones
Arizona Diamondbacks (Local)Cincinnati Reds (Visitante)Margen
Caesars🎯 1.65 (60.7%)Paddy Power🎯 2.55 (39.3%)+0.179%
GTbets🎯 1.65 (60.7%)Paddy Power🎯 2.55 (39.3%)+0.179%
LowVig.ag🎯 1.65 (60.7%)Paddy Power🎯 2.55 (39.3%)+0.179%
BetOnline.ag🎯 1.65 (60.7%)Paddy Power🎯 2.55 (39.3%)+0.179%

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