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Sydney Swans v Richmond Tigers
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sydney Swans (Local)
Prediction 91.80%1.09fair odd
EV -4.53%
Edge -4.36%
Kelly -113.31%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.04
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
87.78%91.54%91.71%93.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.031.031.0499.01%97.34%97.09%96.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Richmond Tigers (Visit)
Prediction 8.20%12.19fair odd
EV +14.86%
Edge +1.06%
Kelly +1.14%
Growth +0.170%
assuming max odds 14.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.79%8.46%8.29%12.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.4011.2011.0014.0013.51%8.93%9.09%7.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney Swans (Local): 91.80%; Richmond Tigers (Visit): 8.20%. For Richmond Tigers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.19. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 14.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.86%.
Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -6.37%E -6.24%K -318.42%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV +14.86%E +1.06%K +1.14%G +0.170% | 5.2% | 2026-05-30 03:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -6.37%E -6.24%K -318.42%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV +14.86%E +1.06%K +1.14%G +0.170% | 5.2% | 2026-05-30 02:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -6.37%E -6.24%K -318.42%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV +14.86%E +1.06%K +1.14%G +0.170% | 5.2% | 2026-05-29 23:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.45%E -5.29%K -181.68%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +6.66%E +0.512%K +0.555%G +0.037% | 4.8% | 2026-05-30 01:40 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -6.37%E -6.24%K -318.42%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV +6.66%E +0.512%K +0.555%G +0.037% | 5.7% | 2026-05-25 00:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.29%EV -5.45%E -5.29%K -181.68%G +0.000% | 12.33I 8.11%NM 7.71%EV +1.16%E +0.094%K +0.102%G +0.001% | 5.2% | 2026-05-30 02:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.45%E -5.29%K -181.68%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -1.55%E -0.129%K -0.141%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-30 02:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.45%E -5.29%K -181.68%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -1.55%E -0.129%K -0.141%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-30 01:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -6.37%E -6.24%K -318.42%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -1.55%E -0.129%K -0.141%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-30 01:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -4.53%E -4.36%K -113.31%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -5.65%E -0.491%K -0.538%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-30 02:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -4.53%E -4.36%K -113.31%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -9.75%E -0.887%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-29 02:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.45%E -5.29%K -181.68%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -9.75%E -0.887%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-30 03:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.45%E -5.29%K -181.68%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -9.75%E -0.887%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-30 03:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.45%E -5.29%K -181.68%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -9.75%E -0.887%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-30 03:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.45%E -5.29%K -181.68%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -9.75%E -0.887%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-30 03:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.45%E -5.29%K -181.68%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -9.75%E -0.887%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-30 03:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.45%E -5.29%K -181.68%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -9.75%E -0.887%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-28 22:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.45%E -5.29%K -181.68%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -9.75%E -0.887%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-28 22:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -7.29%E -7.21%K -728.64%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -9.75%E -0.887%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-25 06:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -5.45%E -5.29%K -181.68%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -13.85%E -1.32%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-30 02:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.23%EV -7.29%E -7.21%K -728.64%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -13.85%E -1.32%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-30 02:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -4.53%E -4.36%K -113.31%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -17.96%E -1.80%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-30 02:29 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -6.37%E -6.24%K -318.42%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -17.96%E -1.80%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-29 23:28 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 88.59%EV -5.45%E -5.29%K -181.68%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.41%EV -34.37%E -4.30%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-29 02:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 88.59%EV -5.45%E -5.29%K -181.68%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.41%EV -34.37%E -4.30%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-29 02:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 87.78%EV -5.45%E -5.29%K -181.68%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.22%EV -39.29%E -5.31%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-30 03:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.57% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.43% | 0.5% | 2026-05-30 03:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.57% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.43% | 0.5% | 2026-05-30 03:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.57% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.43% | 0.5% | 2026-05-30 03:10 |