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Sydney Swans v Collingwood Magpies
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sydney Swans (Local)
Prediction 82.59%1.21fair odd
EV -1.72%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -9.06%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.19
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.19%82.28%82.67%84.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.141.141.1994.34%87.88%87.72%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Collingwood Magpies (Visit)
Prediction 17.41%5.74fair odd
EV +4.48%
Edge +0.747%
Kelly +0.896%
Growth +0.040%
assuming max odds 6.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.61%17.72%17.33%20.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.305.405.506.0023.26%18.53%18.18%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney Swans (Local): 82.59%; Collingwood Magpies (Visit): 17.41%. For Collingwood Magpies (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.74. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.48%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAB🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -6.68%E -5.91%K -51.36%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV +4.48%E +0.747%K +0.896%G +0.040% | 5.2% | 2026-05-15 09:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -6.68%E -5.91%K -51.36%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV +4.48%E +0.747%K +0.896%G +0.040% | 5.2% | 2026-05-15 08:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -8.33%E -7.50%K -75.72%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV +4.48%E +0.747%K +0.896%G +0.040% | 6.8% | 2026-05-15 09:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.94%EV -8.33%E -7.50%K -75.72%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.06%EV +0.998%E +0.172%K +0.208%G +0.002% | 7.3% | 2026-05-15 09:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.33%EV -5.03%E -4.37%K -33.50%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.67%EV +0.127%E +0.022%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-15 09:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.85%E -5.13%K -41.79%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV +0.127%E +0.022%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-15 07:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.85%E -5.13%K -41.79%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV +0.127%E +0.022%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-15 07:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.85%E -5.13%K -41.79%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV +0.127%E +0.022%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-15 07:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.85%E -5.13%K -41.79%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV +0.127%E +0.022%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-15 09:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.85%E -5.13%K -41.79%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV +0.127%E +0.022%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-15 07:39 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.85%E -5.13%K -41.79%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV +0.127%E +0.022%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-14 22:54 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.85%E -5.13%K -41.79%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -2.48%E -0.444%K -0.540%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-15 08:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.85%E -5.13%K -41.79%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -2.48%E -0.444%K -0.540%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-15 08:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.85%E -5.13%K -41.79%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.23%E -0.768%K -0.939%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-15 08:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.68%E -5.91%K -51.36%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -4.23%E -0.768%K -0.939%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-15 08:04 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.68%E -5.91%K -51.36%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -4.23%E -0.768%K -0.939%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-14 23:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.68%E -5.91%K -51.36%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -4.23%E -0.768%K -0.939%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-14 23:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -4.20%E -3.62%K -26.25%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -7.71%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-15 09:24 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.55%EV -7.50%E -6.70%K -62.53%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -7.71%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-14 18:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.03%E -4.37%K -33.50%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -8.58%E -1.63%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-14 17:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -5.85%E -5.13%K -41.79%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -8.58%E -1.63%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-15 08:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 82.79%EV -12.46%E -11.75%K -207.64%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.21%EV -11.19%E -2.19%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-05-15 07:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.37%E -2.88%K -19.85%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -12.93%E -2.59%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-15 06:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.59%EV -1.72%E -1.45%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 4.64I 21.55%NM 20.41%EV -19.20%E -4.14%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-15 09:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.00%EV -5.03%E -4.37%K -33.50%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -19.90%E -4.33%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-15 06:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.00%EV -5.03%E -4.37%K -33.50%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -19.90%E -4.33%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-15 06:59 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.51%EV -4.20%E -3.62%K -26.25%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -21.64%E -4.81%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-15 09:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 79.19%EV -6.68%E -5.91%K -51.36%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.81%EV -25.12%E -5.84%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-15 09:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.94% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06% | 0.6% | 2026-05-15 09:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.94% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06% | 0.6% | 2026-05-15 09:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.94% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06% | 0.6% | 2026-05-15 09:19 |