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Richmond Tigers v Melbourne Demons
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Richmond Tigers (Local)
Prediction 16.13%6.20fair odd
EV +4.87%
Edge +0.749%
Kelly +0.885%
Growth +0.043%
assuming max odds 6.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.25%16.05%16.13%18.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.836.006.5020.83%17.16%16.67%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Melbourne Demons (Visit)
Prediction 83.87%1.19fair odd
EV -4.39%
Edge -3.85%
Kelly -31.38%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.22%83.95%83.87%85.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.121.121.1495.24%89.43%89.29%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Richmond Tigers (Local): 16.13%; Melbourne Demons (Visit): 83.87%. For Richmond Tigers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.20. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.87%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV +4.87%E +0.749%K +0.885%G +0.043% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -9.42%E -8.73%K -117.81%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-24 02:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV +4.87%E +0.749%K +0.885%G +0.043% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -9.42%E -8.73%K -117.81%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 06:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.51%EV -1.58%E -0.260%K -0.311%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.49%EV -6.07%E -5.42%K -50.58%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-24 00:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.51%EV -1.58%E -0.260%K -0.311%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.49%EV -6.07%E -5.42%K -50.58%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-24 00:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.51%EV -1.58%E -0.260%K -0.311%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.49%EV -6.07%E -5.42%K -50.58%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-24 00:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.51%EV -1.58%E -0.260%K -0.311%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.49%EV -6.07%E -5.42%K -50.58%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-24 00:14 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.74%EV -2.39%E -0.395%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.26%EV -5.23%E -4.63%K -40.24%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 13:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -3.20%E -0.533%K -0.639%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.23%E -4.63%K -40.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 14:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -3.20%E -0.533%K -0.639%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.23%E -4.63%K -40.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-20 03:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -3.20%E -0.533%K -0.639%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.23%E -4.63%K -40.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-20 02:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -3.20%E -0.533%K -0.639%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.23%E -4.63%K -40.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-24 02:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -3.20%E -0.533%K -0.639%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.23%E -4.63%K -40.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 13:59 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -3.20%E -0.533%K -0.639%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.23%E -4.63%K -40.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 06:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -3.20%E -0.533%K -0.639%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.07%E -5.42%K -50.58%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 02:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -3.20%E -0.533%K -0.639%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.91%E -6.22%K -62.81%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-22 02:58 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -3.20%E -0.533%K -0.639%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.91%E -6.22%K -62.81%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-22 04:44 |
| Everygame🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -3.20%E -0.533%K -0.639%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -7.75%E -7.04%K -77.47%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-24 01:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -6.42%E -1.11%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.39%E -3.85%K -31.38%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-24 03:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.78I 17.30%NM 16.23%EV -6.75%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.77%EV -6.07%E -5.42%K -50.58%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-24 03:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -7.23%E -1.26%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.39%E -3.85%K -31.38%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-24 03:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -7.23%E -1.26%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -5.23%E -4.63%K -40.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-24 03:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -11.26%E -2.05%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.39%E -3.85%K -31.38%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 13:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -11.26%E -2.05%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -5.23%E -4.63%K -40.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-24 03:29 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -11.26%E -2.05%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 83.97%EV -11.94%E -11.37%K -238.81%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-04-23 14:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -14.49%E -2.73%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.55%EV -6.07%E -5.42%K -50.58%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-24 00:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -19.33%E -3.87%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -6.07%E -5.42%K -50.58%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-24 01:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -19.33%E -3.87%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -6.07%E -5.42%K -50.58%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-24 01:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.78%EV -22.56%E -4.70%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 81.22%EV -6.91%E -6.22%K -62.81%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-04-24 01:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.57% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.43% | 0.4% | 2026-04-24 03:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 0.9% | 2026-04-24 03:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 0.9% | 2026-04-24 03:45 |