The School of Odds
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Melbourne Demons v Hawthorn Hawks

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 06:16 UTC

Final: Melbourne Demons 120–81 Hawthorn Hawks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melbourne Demons (Local)

Prediction 35.32%2.83fair odd
EV +5.97%
Edge +1.99%
Kelly +2.99%
Growth +0.178%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.76%35.02%35.25%36.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.522.722.703.0039.68%36.75%37.04%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hawthorn Hawks (Visit)

Prediction 64.68%1.55fair odd
EV -2.34%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -4.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.28%64.98%64.75%68.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.441.441.5174.07%69.52%69.44%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne Demons (Local): 35.32%; Hawthorn Hawks (Visit): 64.68%. For Melbourne Demons (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.83. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.97%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +5.97%E +1.99%K +2.99%G +0.178%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -9.45%E -6.75%K -23.64%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-16 06:14
Tipico (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV +2.44%E +0.842%K +1.28%G +0.031%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -12.69%E -9.40%K -36.25%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 06:15
Dabble (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV +0.674%E +0.237%K +0.364%G +0.002%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -6.87%E -4.77%K -15.61%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-16 06:14
Neds🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV +0.674%E +0.237%K +0.364%G +0.002%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -8.16%E -5.75%K -19.43%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-16 06:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV +0.674%E +0.237%K +0.364%G +0.002%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -8.16%E -5.75%K -19.43%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-16 06:14
Betr (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -1.09%E -0.390%K -0.607%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -6.87%E -4.77%K -15.61%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-16 06:15
Bet Right🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -1.09%E -0.390%K -0.607%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -6.87%E -4.77%K -15.61%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-16 06:15
TAB🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -2.86%E -1.04%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.22%E -4.29%K -13.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-16 06:15
PlayUp🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -2.86%E -1.04%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.22%E -4.29%K -13.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-16 06:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.86%E -1.04%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.87%E -4.77%K -15.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-16 06:15
Coolbet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.62%E -1.71%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.93%E -3.35%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-16 06:14
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.62%E -1.71%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.22%E -4.29%K -13.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 06:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.62%E -1.71%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.22%E -4.29%K -13.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 06:15
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.62%E -1.71%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.22%E -4.29%K -13.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 06:15
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.62%E -1.71%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.22%E -4.29%K -13.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 06:15
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.62%E -1.71%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.22%E -4.29%K -13.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 06:15
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -4.62%E -1.71%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -6.87%E -4.77%K -15.61%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 06:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -4.62%E -1.71%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -6.87%E -4.77%K -15.61%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 06:14
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -6.39%E -2.41%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -6.22%E -4.29%K -13.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 06:15
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -7.45%E -2.84%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -2.99%E -1.99%K -5.97%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-16 06:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.45%E -2.84%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.87%E -4.77%K -15.61%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 06:14
Pinnacle🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 36.65%EV -7.80%E -2.99%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.35%EV -2.34%E -1.55%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-16 06:14
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -9.92%E -3.89%K -6.40%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -4.28%E -2.89%K -8.92%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 06:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.11%EV -9.92%E -3.89%K -6.40%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 64.89%EV -10.75%E -7.79%K -28.28%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-16 06:14
NetBet (FR)🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 34.88%EV -10.98%E -4.36%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 65.12%EV -12.69%E -9.40%K -36.25%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-16 06:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48%0.8%2026-05-16 06:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48%0.8%2026-05-16 06:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.87%1.45I 68.97%NM 68.13%1.2%2026-05-16 06:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.24%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.6%2026-05-16 06:15
NordicBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.24%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.6%2026-05-16 06:15