The School of Odds
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Hawthorn Hawks v Melbourne Demons

Kickoff: 2026-07-04 03:15 UTC

Final: Hawthorn Hawks 90–125 Melbourne Demons

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hawthorn Hawks (Local)

Prediction 66.38%1.51fair odd
EV +4.22%
Edge +2.69%
Kelly +7.40%
Growth +0.312%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.95%66.29%66.54%67.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.421.421.5775.76%70.28%70.42%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Melbourne Demons (Visit)

Prediction 33.62%2.97fair odd
EV -2.51%
Edge -0.865%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.62%33.71%33.46%39.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.782.802.9040.82%36.00%35.71%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hawthorn Hawks (Local): 66.38%; Melbourne Demons (Visit): 33.62%. For Hawthorn Hawks (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.51. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.57, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.22%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV +4.22%E +2.69%K +7.40%G +0.312%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -17.64%E -7.20%K -12.16%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-03 12:40
Pinnacle🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.83%EV -2.42%E -1.65%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.17%EV -8.90%E -3.28%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-04 03:05
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.75%E -2.58%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.55%E -2.75%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-04 02:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.41%E -3.06%K -10.02%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.87%E -2.10%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-04 02:15
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.41%E -3.06%K -10.02%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.87%E -2.10%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-04 02:15
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.41%E -3.06%K -10.02%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.55%E -2.75%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-04 01:20
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -4.41%E -3.06%K -10.02%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-04 02:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -4.41%E -3.06%K -10.02%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-04 02:05
DraftKings🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.07%E -3.55%K -11.80%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -4.19%E -1.47%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-04 03:05
Coolbet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.07%E -3.55%K -11.80%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -4.19%E -1.47%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-04 03:05
TAB🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.74%E -4.04%K -13.66%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -2.51%E -0.865%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-04 03:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.74%E -4.04%K -13.66%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -2.51%E -0.865%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-04 02:25
Casumo🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.74%E -4.04%K -13.66%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -3.18%E -1.10%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 02:55
TABtouch🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.74%E -4.04%K -13.66%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -3.18%E -1.10%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 02:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.74%E -4.04%K -13.66%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -3.18%E -1.10%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 02:55
Grosvenor🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.74%E -4.04%K -13.66%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -3.18%E -1.10%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 02:55
Bet Right🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.74%E -4.04%K -13.66%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -3.18%E -1.10%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 03:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.74%E -4.04%K -13.66%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -4.19%E -1.47%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-04 02:20
Unibet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.74%E -4.04%K -13.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -5.87%E -2.10%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-04 02:20
SportsBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.98%EV -6.40%E -4.54%K -15.61%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.02%EV -3.85%E -1.35%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-04 03:10
Everygame🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.06%E -5.05%K -17.66%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.55%E -2.75%K -4.31%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-04 03:05
NordicBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.06%E -5.05%K -17.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-04 02:05
Betsson🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.06%E -5.05%K -17.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-04 02:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.06%E -5.05%K -17.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-30 10:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -8.39%E -6.08%K -22.09%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -4.19%E -1.47%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-04 03:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.33%EV -8.39%E -6.08%K -22.09%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.67%EV -12.59%E -4.84%K -7.87%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-04 03:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 66.50%EV -12.38%E -9.38%K -38.67%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.50%EV -11.92%E -4.55%K -7.36%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-04 03:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04%0.9%2026-07-04 03:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04%0.9%2026-07-04 03:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.48I 67.57%NM 66.82%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.18%1.1%2026-07-04 03:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.35%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.15%9.0%2026-07-04 02:05