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Fremantle Dockers v Carlton Blues
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fremantle Dockers (Local)
Prediction 85.98%1.16fair odd
EV -1.98%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -14.13%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.17%86.13%85.83%88.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.101.101.1498.04%91.18%91.32%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Carlton Blues (Visit)
Prediction 14.02%7.14fair odd
EV +14.93%
Edge +1.82%
Kelly +2.07%
Growth +0.309%
assuming max odds 8.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.35%13.87%14.17%18.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.706.516.508.2021.28%15.36%15.38%12.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fremantle Dockers (Local): 85.98%; Carlton Blues (Visit): 14.02%. For Carlton Blues (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.14. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.93%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.65%EV -9.72%E -9.25%K -194.32%G +0.000% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.35%EV +14.93%E +1.82%K +2.07%G +0.309% | 7.4% | 2026-04-23 22:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.74%EV -8.00%E -7.47%K -114.23%G +0.000% | 7.66I 13.05%NM 12.26%EV +7.36%E +0.961%K +1.10%G +0.081% | 6.5% | 2026-04-23 23:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.42%E -4.92%K -54.17%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -1.89%E -0.270%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 11:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.42%E -4.92%K -54.17%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -1.89%E -0.270%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-24 01:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -6.28%E -5.76%K -69.74%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -1.89%E -0.270%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 20:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -6.28%E -5.76%K -69.74%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -1.89%E -0.270%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-24 00:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -6.28%E -5.76%K -69.74%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -1.89%E -0.270%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-24 00:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -6.28%E -5.76%K -69.74%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -1.89%E -0.270%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-24 00:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -6.28%E -5.76%K -69.74%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -1.89%E -0.270%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-24 00:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -4.56%E -4.11%K -41.43%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -5.40%E -0.799%K -0.938%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-23 12:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV -4.56%E -4.11%K -41.43%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV -6.10%E -0.910%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 12:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV -4.56%E -4.11%K -41.43%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV -6.10%E -0.910%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-24 00:09 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -3.70%E -3.30%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -8.90%E -1.37%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-23 08:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.56%E -4.11%K -41.43%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -8.90%E -1.37%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-23 06:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.42%E -4.92%K -54.17%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -8.90%E -1.37%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 20:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -6.28%E -5.76%K -69.74%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -8.90%E -1.37%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-23 23:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -6.28%E -5.76%K -69.74%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -8.90%E -1.37%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-23 23:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -7.14%E -6.61%K -89.21%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -8.90%E -1.37%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 15:24 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -7.14%E -6.61%K -89.21%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -8.90%E -1.37%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-24 02:34 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.58%EV -2.84%E -2.51%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.42%EV -13.10%E -2.11%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-22 20:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.58%EV -2.84%E -2.51%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.42%EV -13.10%E -2.11%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-22 20:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 85.87%EV -12.30%E -12.05%K -614.78%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.13%EV -13.10%E -2.11%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-04-24 00:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -3.70%E -3.30%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -15.91%E -2.65%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 03:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 84.63%EV -6.28%E -5.76%K -69.74%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -15.91%E -2.65%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-24 00:04 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -1.98%E -1.73%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -22.92%E -4.17%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-20 01:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -4.56%E -4.11%K -41.43%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -22.92%E -4.17%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-23 13:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -4.56%E -4.11%K -41.43%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -22.92%E -4.17%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-23 13:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 81.17%EV -6.28%E -5.76%K -69.74%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.83%EV -34.13%E -7.26%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-04-23 13:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 87.53% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.47% | 0.2% | 2026-04-24 01:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 87.53% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.47% | 0.2% | 2026-04-24 01:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 87.53% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.47% | 0.2% | 2026-04-24 01:25 |