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Essendon Bombers v Melbourne Demons
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Essendon Bombers (Local)
Prediction 22.71%4.40fair odd
EV +4.46%
Edge +0.969%
Kelly +1.24%
Growth +0.055%
assuming max odds 4.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.69%22.89%22.87%26.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.354.074.104.6029.85%24.57%24.39%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Melbourne Demons (Visit)
Prediction 77.29%1.29fair odd
EV -3.38%
Edge -2.71%
Kelly -13.54%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.63%77.11%77.13%79.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.221.231.2586.96%81.73%81.30%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Essendon Bombers (Local): 22.71%; Melbourne Demons (Visit): 77.29%. For Essendon Bombers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.40. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.46%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neds🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +4.46%E +0.969%K +1.24%G +0.055% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -7.25%E -6.04%K -36.25%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 02:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +4.46%E +0.969%K +1.24%G +0.055% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -7.25%E -6.04%K -36.25%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 02:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV +2.19%E +0.486%K +0.625%G +0.014% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -5.70%E -4.68%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-11 02:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.32I 23.15%NM 21.88%EV -1.90%E -0.440%K -0.573%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.12%EV -6.48%E -5.35%K -30.84%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-11 02:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -2.36%E -0.548%K -0.714%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.70%E -4.68%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-11 03:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.68%EV -2.36%E -0.548%K -0.714%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.32%EV -8.02%E -6.74%K -42.22%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-11 03:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -2.36%E -0.548%K -0.714%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -8.80%E -7.45%K -48.86%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-07 11:44 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -3.49%E -0.821%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -4.16%E -3.35%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-10 01:34 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -3.49%E -0.821%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -5.70%E -4.68%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-11 02:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.70%E -4.68%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-11 03:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.90%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.16%E -3.35%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-10 23:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.90%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.16%E -3.35%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-10 06:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.90%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.16%E -3.35%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-10 04:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.90%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.16%E -3.35%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-10 04:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.90%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.16%E -3.35%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-10 04:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.90%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.16%E -3.35%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-10 04:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.90%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.16%E -3.35%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-10 23:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.30%EV -8.03%E -1.98%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.70%EV -4.93%E -4.01%K -21.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-11 03:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -9.17%E -2.29%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.38%E -2.71%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-10 02:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -9.17%E -2.29%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -4.93%E -4.01%K -21.44%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-09 00:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -9.17%E -2.29%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -4.93%E -4.01%K -21.44%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-09 02:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -13.71%E -3.61%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -4.16%E -3.35%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-10 13:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -14.85%E -3.96%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -3.38%E -2.71%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-09 23:39 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -14.85%E -3.96%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -5.70%E -4.68%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-11 02:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.47%EV -14.85%E -3.96%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 76.53%EV -11.11%E -9.66%K -74.09%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-04-10 06:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -18.25%E -5.07%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.38%EV -4.16%E -3.35%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-09 10:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -18.25%E -5.07%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.38%EV -4.16%E -3.35%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-09 10:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.37%EV -23.93%E -7.14%K -10.18%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 73.63%EV -7.25%E -6.04%K -36.25%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-04-11 03:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 0.6% | 2026-04-11 03:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 0.6% | 2026-04-11 03:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 0.6% | 2026-04-11 03:05 |