The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 09:35 UTC

Final: Brisbane Lions 144–91 Adelaide Crows

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brisbane Lions (Local)

Prediction 72.41%1.38fair odd
EV -3.69%
Edge -2.77%
Kelly -11.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.38%72.33%72.40%73.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.301.301.3381.97%76.73%76.92%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Adelaide Crows (Visit)

Prediction 27.59%3.62fair odd
EV -0.688%
Edge -0.191%
Kelly -0.264%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.23%27.67%27.60%30.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.383.403.6034.48%29.62%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brisbane Lions (Local): 72.41%; Adelaide Crows (Visit): 27.59%. For Adelaide Crows (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.62. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.60, with an expected value of -0.688%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Neds🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -3.69%E -2.77%K -11.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -7.58%E -2.26%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-07 09:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -3.69%E -2.77%K -11.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -7.58%E -2.26%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-07 09:04
Dabble (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.69%E -2.77%K -11.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.96%E -2.72%K -3.90%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-08 00:30
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.69%E -2.77%K -11.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -10.34%E -3.18%K -4.60%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-09 03:04
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -3.69%E -2.77%K -11.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -11.72%E -3.66%K -5.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 00:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -3.69%E -2.77%K -11.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -11.72%E -3.66%K -5.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 02:24
SportsBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.09%EV -4.41%E -3.34%K -13.80%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.91%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-09 03:04
Coolbet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.41%E -3.34%K -13.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.21%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-09 01:39
Bet Right🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.41%E -3.34%K -13.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.21%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-09 08:44
Betr (AU)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.14%E -3.92%K -16.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -3.45%E -0.985%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-08 06:25
Grosvenor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.86%E -4.51%K -19.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.07%E -0.582%K -0.811%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-09 01:39
TABtouch🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.86%E -4.51%K -19.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.07%E -0.582%K -0.811%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-09 01:39
Casumo🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.86%E -4.51%K -19.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.07%E -0.582%K -0.811%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-09 01:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.86%E -4.51%K -19.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.07%E -0.582%K -0.811%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-09 01:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.86%E -4.51%K -19.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.07%E -0.582%K -0.811%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-09 01:35
PlayUp🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.86%E -4.51%K -19.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.45%E -0.985%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 00:14
Pinnacle🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.40%EV -5.86%E -4.51%K -19.54%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.60%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-09 08:34
LiveScore Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.86%E -4.51%K -19.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.21%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 01:34
Unibet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.86%E -4.51%K -19.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.21%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 01:39
NordicBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.45%EV -5.86%E -4.51%K -19.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -14.48%E -4.67%K -6.90%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-08 05:24
Betsson🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.45%EV -5.86%E -4.51%K -19.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -14.48%E -4.67%K -6.90%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-08 05:25
TAB🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -6.59%E -5.11%K -22.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -0.688%E -0.191%K -0.264%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-09 10:45
DraftKings🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.78%EV -6.59%E -5.11%K -22.71%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV -4.83%E -1.40%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-09 10:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -7.31%E -5.71%K -26.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -0.688%E -0.191%K -0.264%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-09 10:44
Marathon Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.77%EV -7.31%E -5.71%K -26.11%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.23%EV -5.65%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 15:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 69.38%EV -7.31%E -5.71%K -26.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.62%EV -20.00%E -6.90%K -10.53%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-08 05:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.08%EV -11.66%E -9.55%K -52.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.92%EV -13.10%E -4.16%K -6.09%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-09 01:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.6%2026-09-09 09:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.6%2026-09-09 09:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.6%2026-09-09 09:59

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.50%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.16%8.2%2026-09-08 05:25