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Adelaide Crows v Western Bulldogs

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 09:35 UTC

Final: Adelaide Crows 90–68 Western Bulldogs

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Adelaide Crows (Local)

Prediction 68.33%1.46fair odd
EV -2.98%
Edge -2.10%
Kelly -7.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.95%68.33%68.24%69.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.381.381.4277.52%72.66%72.46%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Western Bulldogs (Visit)

Prediction 31.67%3.16fair odd
EV -1.81%
Edge -0.584%
Kelly -0.862%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.59%31.67%31.76%34.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.973.003.1036.36%33.67%33.33%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Adelaide Crows (Local): 68.33%; Western Bulldogs (Visit): 31.67%. For Western Bulldogs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.16. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.10, with an expected value of -1.81%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -2.98%E -2.10%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -12.90%E -4.69%K -7.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-02 02:20
Coral🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -2.98%E -2.10%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -12.90%E -4.69%K -7.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-02 05:40
Coolbet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.34%E -3.10%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.98%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-03 21:05
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -4.34%E -3.10%K -10.86%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -8.78%E -3.05%K -4.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-01 23:39
Pinnacle🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -4.34%E -3.10%K -10.86%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -8.78%E -3.05%K -4.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 08:50
SportsBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.48%EV -5.03%E -3.62%K -12.89%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.52%EV -4.34%E -1.44%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 13:43
Betr (AU)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -5.03%E -3.62%K -12.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -4.98%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 01:25
TAB🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.71%E -4.14%K -15.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -1.81%E -0.584%K -0.862%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-03 09:14
Grosvenor🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.71%E -4.14%K -15.03%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.39%E -1.11%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 03:29
Casumo🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.71%E -4.14%K -15.03%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.39%E -1.11%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 03:30
TABtouch🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.71%E -4.14%K -15.03%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.39%E -1.11%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 03:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.71%E -4.14%K -15.03%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.39%E -1.11%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 03:29
Unibet (NL)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.71%E -4.14%K -15.03%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.39%E -1.11%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 03:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.71%E -4.14%K -15.03%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.39%E -1.11%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 23:10
Neds🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.71%E -4.14%K -15.03%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.39%E -1.11%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 23:09
Bet Right🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.71%E -4.14%K -15.03%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.39%E -1.11%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 23:15
PlayUp🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.71%E -4.14%K -15.03%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.39%E -1.11%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 02:50
DraftKings🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.71%E -4.14%K -15.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.98%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 20:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.71%E -4.14%K -15.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.98%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-04 13:09
LiveScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.71%E -4.14%K -15.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -6.56%E -2.22%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 03:29
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.71%E -4.14%K -15.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -6.56%E -2.22%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 03:30
Dabble (AU)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -6.39%E -4.67%K -17.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -1.81%E -0.584%K -0.862%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 08:30
NordicBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -7.76%E -5.75%K -22.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -8.15%E -2.81%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 14:33
Betsson🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -7.76%E -5.75%K -22.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -8.15%E -2.81%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 14:34
Marathon Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.41%EV -8.44%E -6.30%K -24.83%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.59%EV -3.71%E -1.22%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-04 01:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.57%EV -9.81%E -7.43%K -30.66%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -12.90%E -4.69%K -7.37%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-04 09:39
NetBet (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.23%EV -11.86%E -9.19%K -40.89%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 31.77%EV -12.26%E -4.43%K -6.93%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-03 21:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.41I 70.92%NM 70.38%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%0.8%2026-09-04 14:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.41I 70.92%NM 70.38%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%0.8%2026-09-04 14:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.41I 70.92%NM 70.38%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%0.8%2026-09-04 14:20

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.35%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.15%9.0%2026-09-02 08:15