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Adelaide Crows v Carlton Blues
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Adelaide Crows (Local)
Prediction 82.72%1.21fair odd
EV -3.22%
Edge -2.75%
Kelly -18.92%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.17
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.80%82.59%82.75%84.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.141.141.1794.34%87.91%87.72%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Carlton Blues (Visit)
Prediction 17.28%5.79fair odd
EV +7.99%
Edge +1.28%
Kelly +1.52%
Growth +0.122%
assuming max odds 6.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.20%17.41%17.25%21.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.205.415.506.2523.81%18.50%18.18%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Adelaide Crows (Local): 82.72%; Carlton Blues (Visit): 17.28%. For Carlton Blues (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.79. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.99%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neds🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -7.35%E -6.56%K -61.27%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV +7.99%E +1.28%K +1.52%G +0.122% | 5.3% | 2026-04-09 08:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -7.35%E -6.56%K -61.27%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV +7.99%E +1.28%K +1.52%G +0.122% | 5.3% | 2026-04-09 08:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.72%EV -9.01%E -8.19%K -90.07%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.28%EV +5.40%E +0.885%K +1.06%G +0.057% | 7.3% | 2026-04-09 03:31 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.33%EV -4.87%E -4.24%K -32.47%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.67%EV -0.647%E -0.113%K -0.136%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-09 09:25 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.70%E -5.00%K -40.70%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -0.647%E -0.113%K -0.136%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-09 06:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -6.53%E -5.77%K -50.19%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -0.647%E -0.113%K -0.136%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-09 08:14 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.70%E -5.00%K -40.70%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -3.24%E -0.578%K -0.704%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-09 09:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.87%E -4.24%K -32.47%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -4.97%E -0.903%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-08 17:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.87%E -4.24%K -32.47%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -4.97%E -0.903%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-09 09:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.87%E -4.24%K -32.47%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -4.97%E -0.903%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-09 07:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.70%E -5.00%K -40.70%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.97%E -0.903%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-09 08:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.70%E -5.00%K -40.70%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.97%E -0.903%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-09 09:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.70%E -5.00%K -40.70%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.97%E -0.903%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-07 07:44 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.53%E -5.77%K -50.19%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -4.97%E -0.903%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-09 00:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.53%E -5.77%K -50.19%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -4.97%E -0.903%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-09 02:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -4.87%E -4.24%K -32.47%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -6.69%E -1.24%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-09 09:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -4.87%E -4.24%K -32.47%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -6.69%E -1.24%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-09 09:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -4.87%E -4.24%K -32.47%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -6.69%E -1.24%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-09 09:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -4.87%E -4.24%K -32.47%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -6.69%E -1.24%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-09 09:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.55%EV -7.35%E -6.56%K -61.27%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -8.42%E -1.59%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-07 11:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -3.22%E -2.75%K -18.92%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -9.29%E -1.77%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-09 09:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -4.87%E -4.24%K -32.47%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -9.29%E -1.77%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-09 09:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 82.79%EV -12.32%E -11.62%K -205.26%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.21%EV -11.88%E -2.33%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-04-08 22:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -4.87%E -4.24%K -32.47%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -13.61%E -2.72%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-09 09:25 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -5.70%E -5.00%K -40.70%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -13.61%E -2.72%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-09 09:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.00%EV -4.87%E -4.24%K -32.47%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -20.52%E -4.46%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-08 21:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.00%EV -4.87%E -4.24%K -32.47%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -20.52%E -4.46%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-08 21:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 78.80%EV -6.53%E -5.77%K -50.19%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.20%EV -27.43%E -6.53%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-04-09 09:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55% | 0.7% | 2026-04-09 09:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55% | 0.7% | 2026-04-09 09:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55% | 0.7% | 2026-04-09 09:35 |