The School of Odds

Detroit Lions v New England Patriots

2026-11-15 14:30 — NFL

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Detroit Lions (Local)

Prediction 52.33%1.91fair odd
EV -2.14%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -2.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.07%52.75%52.22%56.04%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.711.821.831.87MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
Consensus probabilities
51.07%1.958Min
56.04%1.784Max
52.75%1.896Mean
52.22%1.915Median
52.33%1.911IQM
52.81%1.894Margin-weighted

New England Patriots (Visit)

Prediction 47.67%2.10fair odd
EV +3.92%
Edge +1.80%
Kelly +3.32%
Growth +0.130%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.96%47.25%47.78%48.93%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.912.001.992.18MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
Consensus probabilities
43.96%2.275Min
48.93%2.044Max
47.25%2.116Mean
47.78%2.093Median
47.67%2.098IQM
47.19%2.119Margin-weighted

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

BookmakerDetroit Lions (Local)New England Patriots (Visit) ▼MarginUpdated
Caesars1.71I 58.48% NM 56.04%EV -10.51% E -6.15% K -14.81% G +0.000%2.18I 45.87% NM 43.96%EV +3.92% E +1.80% K +3.32% G +0.130%4.4%2026-06-30 09:58
DraftKings1.80I 55.56% NM 53.25%EV -5.80% E -3.22% K -7.26% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.75%EV -2.28% E -1.11% K -2.17% G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-13 14:05
Ladbrokes (UK)1.83I 54.64% NM 52.22%EV -4.23% E -2.31% K -5.10% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 47.78%EV -4.66% E -2.33% K -4.66% G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-13 18:50
BetMGM1.83I 54.64% NM 52.22%EV -4.23% E -2.31% K -5.10% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 47.78%EV -4.66% E -2.33% K -4.66% G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-13 18:50
Coral1.83I 54.64% NM 52.22%EV -4.23% E -2.31% K -5.10% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 47.78%EV -4.66% E -2.33% K -4.66% G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-13 18:55
theScore Bet1.83I 54.64% NM 52.22%EV -4.23% E -2.31% K -5.10% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 47.78%EV -4.66% E -2.33% K -4.66% G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-14 17:15
William Hill1.80I 55.56% NM 52.63%EV -5.80% E -3.22% K -7.26% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 47.37%EV -4.66% E -2.33% K -4.66% G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-14 17:15
ReBet1.83I 54.64% NM 52.09%EV -4.23% E -2.31% K -5.10% G +0.000%1.99I 50.25% NM 47.91%EV -5.14% E -2.58% K -5.19% G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-30 09:59
FanDuel1.86I 53.76% NM 51.56%EV -2.66% E -1.43% K -3.10% G +0.000%1.98I 50.51% NM 48.44%EV -5.61% E -2.84% K -5.73% G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-30 09:59
Neds1.83I 54.64% NM 51.97%EV -4.23% E -2.31% K -5.10% G +0.000%1.98I 50.51% NM 48.03%EV -5.61% E -2.84% K -5.73% G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-13 18:50
Ladbrokes (AU)1.83I 54.64% NM 51.97%EV -4.23% E -2.31% K -5.10% G +0.000%1.98I 50.51% NM 48.03%EV -5.61% E -2.84% K -5.73% G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-13 18:50
Unibet (UK)1.83I 54.64% NM 51.97%EV -4.23% E -2.31% K -5.10% G +0.000%1.98I 50.51% NM 48.03%EV -5.61% E -2.84% K -5.73% G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-30 09:59
SportsBet1.87I 53.48% NM 51.30%EV -2.14% E -1.15% K -2.46% G +0.000%1.97I 50.76% NM 48.70%EV -6.09% E -3.09% K -6.28% G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-30 09:59
Betclic (FR)1.80I 55.56% NM 52.00%EV -5.80% E -3.22% K -7.26% G +0.000%1.95I 51.28% NM 48.00%EV -7.05% E -3.61% K -7.42% G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-30 09:59
Paddy Power1.83I 54.64% NM 51.07%EV -4.23% E -2.31% K -5.10% G +0.000%1.91I 52.36% NM 48.93%EV -8.95% E -4.69% K -9.84% G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-13 18:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerDetroit Lions (Local)New England Patriots (Visit)Margin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.78I 56.18% NM 52.02%1.93I 51.81% NM 47.98%8.0%2026-06-30 09:59
Arbitrage (2 combinations) +0.66%SportsBet 1.87 (53.8%) / Caesars 2.18 (46.2%)Show all 2 combinations
Detroit Lions (Local)New England Patriots (Visit)Margin
SportsBet 1.87 (53.8%)Caesars 2.18 (46.2%)+0.657%
FanDuel 1.86 (54.0%)Caesars 2.18 (46.0%)+0.366%