The School of Odds

Cincinnati Bengals v Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2026-09-13 17:00 — NFL

Head to Head

44 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Cincinnati Bengals (Local)

Prediction 63.58%1.57fair odd
EV +2.36%
Edge +1.47%
Kelly +3.88%
Growth +0.092%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.72%63.27%63.61%64.25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.341.501.501.61MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
Consensus probabilities
58.72%1.703Min
64.25%1.556Max
63.27%1.580Mean
63.61%1.572Median
63.58%1.573IQM
63.33%1.579Margin-weighted

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Visit)

Prediction 36.42%2.75fair odd
EV -2.39%
Edge -0.893%
Kelly -1.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.75%36.73%36.39%41.28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.292.602.632.68MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
Consensus probabilities
35.75%2.797Min
41.28%2.422Max
36.73%2.723Mean
36.39%2.748Median
36.42%2.746IQM
36.67%2.727Margin-weighted

Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)

BookmakerCincinnati Bengals (Local) ▼Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Visit)MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet1.61I 62.11% NM 58.72%EV +2.36% E +1.47% K +3.88% G +0.092%2.29I 43.67% NM 41.28%EV -16.60% E -7.25% K -12.87% G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-24 14:39
TAB1.55I 64.52% NM 61.25%EV -1.45% E -0.936% K -2.64% G +0.000%2.45I 40.82% NM 38.75%EV -10.77% E -4.40% K -7.43% G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-15 05:40
Pinnacle1.54I 64.94% NM 63.07%EV -2.09% E -1.36% K -3.86% G +0.000%2.63I 38.02% NM 36.93%EV -4.22% E -1.60% K -2.59% G +0.000%3.0%2026-06-04 04:50
LowVig.ag1.53I 65.36% NM 63.40%EV -2.72% E -1.78% K -5.14% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 36.60%EV -3.49% E -1.32% K -2.11% G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-23 22:49
BetOnline.ag1.53I 65.36% NM 63.40%EV -2.72% E -1.78% K -5.14% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 36.60%EV -3.49% E -1.32% K -2.11% G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-23 22:49
BetUS1.53I 65.36% NM 63.22%EV -2.72% E -1.78% K -5.14% G +0.000%2.63I 38.02% NM 36.78%EV -4.22% E -1.60% K -2.59% G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-23 22:49
theScore Bet1.51I 66.23% NM 63.70%EV -3.99% E -2.65% K -7.83% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 36.30%EV -3.49% E -1.32% K -2.11% G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-15 06:09
Bovada1.51I 66.23% NM 63.70%EV -3.99% E -2.65% K -7.83% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 36.30%EV -3.49% E -1.32% K -2.11% G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-06 11:12
GTbets1.51I 66.23% NM 63.70%EV -3.99% E -2.65% K -7.83% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 36.30%EV -3.49% E -1.32% K -2.11% G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-08 15:59
DraftKings1.51I 66.23% NM 63.61%EV -3.99% E -2.65% K -7.83% G +0.000%2.64I 37.88% NM 36.39%EV -3.85% E -1.46% K -2.35% G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-06 11:15
Caesars1.51I 66.23% NM 63.61%EV -3.99% E -2.65% K -7.83% G +0.000%2.64I 37.88% NM 36.39%EV -3.85% E -1.46% K -2.35% G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-29 22:59
FanDuel1.50I 66.67% NM 64.11%EV -4.63% E -3.09% K -9.26% G +0.000%2.68I 37.31% NM 35.89%EV -2.39% E -0.893% K -1.43% G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-29 23:00
Unibet1.50I 66.67% NM 63.86%EV -4.63% E -3.09% K -9.26% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 36.14%EV -3.49% E -1.32% K -2.11% G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-01 17:00
Unibet (NL)1.50I 66.67% NM 63.86%EV -4.63% E -3.09% K -9.26% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 36.14%EV -3.49% E -1.32% K -2.11% G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-01 16:59
LeoVegas (SE)1.50I 66.67% NM 63.86%EV -4.63% E -3.09% K -9.26% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 36.14%EV -3.49% E -1.32% K -2.11% G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-01 16:59
Unibet (SE)1.50I 66.67% NM 63.86%EV -4.63% E -3.09% K -9.26% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 36.14%EV -3.49% E -1.32% K -2.11% G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-01 17:00
Fanatics1.50I 66.67% NM 63.86%EV -4.63% E -3.09% K -9.26% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 36.14%EV -3.49% E -1.32% K -2.11% G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-20 02:39
Svenska Spel1.50I 66.67% NM 63.86%EV -4.63% E -3.09% K -9.26% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 36.14%EV -3.49% E -1.32% K -2.11% G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-01 16:59
Bally Bet1.50I 66.67% NM 63.86%EV -4.63% E -3.09% K -9.26% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 36.14%EV -3.49% E -1.32% K -2.11% G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-01 16:59
ATG (SE)1.50I 66.67% NM 63.86%EV -4.63% E -3.09% K -9.26% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 36.14%EV -3.49% E -1.32% K -2.11% G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-01 17:00
betPARX1.50I 66.67% NM 63.86%EV -4.63% E -3.09% K -9.26% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 36.14%EV -3.49% E -1.32% K -2.11% G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-01 16:59
BetMGM1.50I 66.67% NM 63.86%EV -4.63% E -3.09% K -9.26% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 36.14%EV -3.49% E -1.32% K -2.11% G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-15 01:09
Unibet (UK)1.50I 66.67% NM 63.86%EV -4.63% E -3.09% K -9.26% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 36.14%EV -3.49% E -1.32% K -2.11% G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-29 22:59
PointsBet (AU)1.50I 66.67% NM 63.86%EV -4.63% E -3.09% K -9.26% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 36.14%EV -3.49% E -1.32% K -2.11% G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-16 08:49
Hard Rock Bet1.50I 66.67% NM 63.86%EV -4.63% E -3.09% K -9.26% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 36.14%EV -3.49% E -1.32% K -2.11% G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-30 08:38
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.50I 66.67% NM 63.68%EV -4.63% E -3.09% K -9.26% G +0.000%2.63I 38.02% NM 36.32%EV -4.22% E -1.60% K -2.59% G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-29 23:00
ReBet1.50I 66.67% NM 63.68%EV -4.63% E -3.09% K -9.26% G +0.000%2.63I 38.02% NM 36.32%EV -4.22% E -1.60% K -2.59% G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-29 23:00
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67% NM 63.59%EV -4.63% E -3.09% K -9.26% G +0.000%2.62I 38.17% NM 36.41%EV -4.58% E -1.75% K -2.83% G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-29 22:59
Ladbrokes (UK)1.50I 66.67% NM 63.59%EV -4.63% E -3.09% K -9.26% G +0.000%2.62I 38.17% NM 36.41%EV -4.58% E -1.75% K -2.83% G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-15 01:09
Coral1.50I 66.67% NM 63.59%EV -4.63% E -3.09% K -9.26% G +0.000%2.62I 38.17% NM 36.41%EV -4.58% E -1.75% K -2.83% G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-15 01:09
BetRivers1.50I 66.67% NM 63.41%EV -4.63% E -3.09% K -9.26% G +0.000%2.60I 38.46% NM 36.59%EV -5.31% E -2.04% K -3.32% G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-01 16:59
Neds1.50I 66.67% NM 63.41%EV -4.63% E -3.09% K -9.26% G +0.000%2.60I 38.46% NM 36.59%EV -5.31% E -2.04% K -3.32% G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-15 01:09
Ladbrokes (AU)1.50I 66.67% NM 63.41%EV -4.63% E -3.09% K -9.26% G +0.000%2.60I 38.46% NM 36.59%EV -5.31% E -2.04% K -3.32% G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-15 01:09
William Hill1.50I 66.67% NM 63.41%EV -4.63% E -3.09% K -9.26% G +0.000%2.60I 38.46% NM 36.59%EV -5.31% E -2.04% K -3.32% G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-15 06:10
Bet Right1.50I 66.67% NM 63.41%EV -4.63% E -3.09% K -9.26% G +0.000%2.60I 38.46% NM 36.59%EV -5.31% E -2.04% K -3.32% G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-29 08:59
Tipico (DE)1.50I 66.67% NM 62.96%EV -4.63% E -3.09% K -9.26% G +0.000%2.55I 39.22% NM 37.04%EV -7.13% E -2.80% K -4.60% G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-15 06:49
SportsBet1.48I 67.57% NM 64.25%EV -5.90% E -3.99% K -12.29% G +0.000%2.66I 37.59% NM 35.75%EV -3.12% E -1.17% K -1.88% G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-29 22:59
Coolbet1.48I 67.57% NM 63.73%EV -5.90% E -3.99% K -12.29% G +0.000%2.60I 38.46% NM 36.27%EV -5.31% E -2.04% K -3.32% G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-28 04:50
MyBookie.ag1.48I 67.57% NM 63.64%EV -5.90% E -3.99% K -12.29% G +0.000%2.59I 38.61% NM 36.36%EV -5.67% E -2.19% K -3.57% G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-29 22:59
Betclic (FR)1.48I 67.57% NM 63.28%EV -5.90% E -3.99% K -12.29% G +0.000%2.55I 39.22% NM 36.72%EV -7.13% E -2.80% K -4.60% G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-15 06:15
LeoVegas1.47I 68.03% NM 62.97%EV -6.54% E -4.45% K -13.91% G +0.000%2.50I 40.00% NM 37.03%EV -8.95% E -3.58% K -5.97% G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-02 10:14
NordicBet1.46I 68.49% NM 63.32%EV -7.17% E -4.91% K -15.59% G +0.000%2.52I 39.68% NM 36.68%EV -8.22% E -3.26% K -5.41% G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-05 20:04
Betsson1.46I 68.49% NM 63.32%EV -7.17% E -4.91% K -15.59% G +0.000%2.52I 39.68% NM 36.68%EV -8.22% E -3.26% K -5.41% G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-05 20:05
NetBet (FR)1.34I 74.63% NM 63.69%EV -14.80% E -11.05% K -43.54% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 36.31%EV -14.41% E -6.13% K -10.68% G +0.000%17.2%2026-07-06 11:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerCincinnati Bengals (Local)Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Visit)Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.52I 65.79% NM 63.98%2.70I 37.04% NM 36.02%2.8%2026-07-02 20:50
Smarkets1.46I 68.49% NM 63.32%2.52I 39.68% NM 36.68%8.2%2026-06-29 23:00
Arbitrage (22 combinations) +0.58%Marathon Bet 1.61 (62.5%) / FanDuel 2.68 (37.5%)Show all 22 combinations
Cincinnati Bengals (Local)Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Visit)Margin
Marathon Bet 1.61 (62.5%)FanDuel 2.68 (37.5%)+0.578%
Marathon Bet 1.61 (62.3%)SportsBet 2.66 (37.7%)+0.295%
Marathon Bet 1.61 (62.2%)LowVig.ag 2.65 (37.8%)+0.153%
Marathon Bet 1.61 (62.2%)BetOnline.ag 2.65 (37.8%)+0.153%
Marathon Bet 1.61 (62.2%)theScore Bet 2.65 (37.8%)+0.153%
Marathon Bet 1.61 (62.2%)Bovada 2.65 (37.8%)+0.153%
Marathon Bet 1.61 (62.2%)GTbets 2.65 (37.8%)+0.153%
Marathon Bet 1.61 (62.2%)Unibet 2.65 (37.8%)+0.153%
Marathon Bet 1.61 (62.2%)Unibet (NL) 2.65 (37.8%)+0.153%
Marathon Bet 1.61 (62.2%)LeoVegas (SE) 2.65 (37.8%)+0.153%
Marathon Bet 1.61 (62.2%)Unibet (SE) 2.65 (37.8%)+0.153%
Marathon Bet 1.61 (62.2%)Fanatics 2.65 (37.8%)+0.153%
Marathon Bet 1.61 (62.2%)Svenska Spel 2.65 (37.8%)+0.153%
Marathon Bet 1.61 (62.2%)Bally Bet 2.65 (37.8%)+0.153%
Marathon Bet 1.61 (62.2%)ATG (SE) 2.65 (37.8%)+0.153%
Marathon Bet 1.61 (62.2%)betPARX 2.65 (37.8%)+0.153%
Marathon Bet 1.61 (62.2%)BetMGM 2.65 (37.8%)+0.153%
Marathon Bet 1.61 (62.2%)Unibet (UK) 2.65 (37.8%)+0.153%
Marathon Bet 1.61 (62.2%)PointsBet (AU) 2.65 (37.8%)+0.153%
Marathon Bet 1.61 (62.2%)Hard Rock Bet 2.65 (37.8%)+0.153%
Marathon Bet 1.61 (62.1%)DraftKings 2.64 (37.9%)+0.009%
Marathon Bet 1.61 (62.1%)Caesars 2.64 (37.9%)+0.009%